Chickenlittle
Banned
Suspect you maybe right. Do you thing this run up is over anticipation of either elon explanation today or over weekend or possibly resolution over week end of budget?
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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hockeythug
Active Member
Off-topic. You love your GT-R correct? That is my favorite car outside of the Model S.
kevin99
Member
A little shaky at $180, so I went in bought lots of put expired today @$180 for $1. Just to hedge my wonderful gain today. So far so good!
First time I ever did this!
bareyb
Active Member
I'm just having a little fun. God knows we need it around here lately. I'm in it for the long haul with my Tesla stock so the daily fluctuations aren't that big of a concern to me. I'm looking down the road about five years.
Congrats to all on 180! That was the top of where I (and DaveT) thought we would head today and we hit it early, which is surprisingly strong evidence of the determination and resiliency of investors in this stock.
You guys continue to give me so much great feedback, and thanks. To try and return the favor a little:
Since I probably have more Washington, DC insider analysis experience than most here, I will offer you all this brief analysis of macroeconomic forces that could affect TSLA in the short term:
% chance of US default on debt went WAY down yesterday when John Boehner, who is the sole player with the power to prevent it at this point, woke up and smelled the bacon. Boehner realized that his options were:
1) Moderately risk his speakership and political career by acting against the Tea Party extremists in his own party, but preserving the integrity of US debt at all costs
2) Please the Tea Party extremists but create MASSIVE risk of decimating the global economy by moving towards US debt default in a real way, which would annihilate the wealth of him, his family and all his wealthy peers in the process, all for an ideological crusade (essentially, destroy the US government) with next to zero percent chance of any "positive" outcome in the near-term for anyone with half a brain. This would put him in the history books as the man who did more damage to the US Economy than 9/11 and Wall Street CDS shenanigans combined, and doom the economy for a decade or more. He now understands this, thankfully.
How Mr. Boehner will specifically act to try to preserve his career as well as the US economy is still in question, but it is now clear that he would rather sacrifice his career than his ability to buy a yacht and smoke cubans. Smart man, as it turns out.
The government shutdown itself, while completely horrible for many local economies in the near-term, has a more muted effect at a macroeconomic level at this point because it will very clearly not go on long. At this point, extending it does little but decrease the likelihood that Republican House members from non-Jerrymandered (read: "competitive") districts will be re-elected in the next cycle, which could be huge for the Dems. Despite reports in the mainstream media (which sells ads based on horse races and controversy, not clear conclusions), the shutdown does not hurt Obama/Dems anywhere near as much as it hurts Republicans in real polling, which translates to real voting next election cycle, which translates to a whole lot of non-extremist Republicans losing power. They like power and money, they are sick of being bullied by the Tea Party, and they are starting to clearly show that they are more willing to risk party disunity than losing power. Go figure.
So all in all, I would give the shutdown about two more weeks at the outside before more extensive pitchforks come out, and I would give probability of a catastrophic default on US debt under 2% at this point.
As for me, I exited almost all of my equities positions (mostly composed of TSLA) temporarily while I awaited news of Boehner's mindset, which I got yesterday. Coupled with the fire video, I felt that "buying" a temporary risk-reduction was worth missing out on a few dollars of potential share value increase. That's exactly what happened, and I bought back in at a $4/share differential, which was worth the reduced risk to me.
Happy trading everyone. I'm still hoping to see some warm and fuzzies from Elon to close out the fire issue soon, and am giddy about Q3 earnings run-up that I believe is coming soon.
Cheers,
Flux
You guys continue to give me so much great feedback, and thanks. To try and return the favor a little:
Since I probably have more Washington, DC insider analysis experience than most here, I will offer you all this brief analysis of macroeconomic forces that could affect TSLA in the short term:
% chance of US default on debt went WAY down yesterday when John Boehner, who is the sole player with the power to prevent it at this point, woke up and smelled the bacon. Boehner realized that his options were:
1) Moderately risk his speakership and political career by acting against the Tea Party extremists in his own party, but preserving the integrity of US debt at all costs
2) Please the Tea Party extremists but create MASSIVE risk of decimating the global economy by moving towards US debt default in a real way, which would annihilate the wealth of him, his family and all his wealthy peers in the process, all for an ideological crusade (essentially, destroy the US government) with next to zero percent chance of any "positive" outcome in the near-term for anyone with half a brain. This would put him in the history books as the man who did more damage to the US Economy than 9/11 and Wall Street CDS shenanigans combined, and doom the economy for a decade or more. He now understands this, thankfully.
How Mr. Boehner will specifically act to try to preserve his career as well as the US economy is still in question, but it is now clear that he would rather sacrifice his career than his ability to buy a yacht and smoke cubans. Smart man, as it turns out.
The government shutdown itself, while completely horrible for many local economies in the near-term, has a more muted effect at a macroeconomic level at this point because it will very clearly not go on long. At this point, extending it does little but decrease the likelihood that Republican House members from non-Jerrymandered (read: "competitive") districts will be re-elected in the next cycle, which could be huge for the Dems. Despite reports in the mainstream media (which sells ads based on horse races and controversy, not clear conclusions), the shutdown does not hurt Obama/Dems anywhere near as much as it hurts Republicans in real polling, which translates to real voting next election cycle, which translates to a whole lot of non-extremist Republicans losing power. They like power and money, they are sick of being bullied by the Tea Party, and they are starting to clearly show that they are more willing to risk party disunity than losing power. Go figure.
So all in all, I would give the shutdown about two more weeks at the outside before more extensive pitchforks come out, and I would give probability of a catastrophic default on US debt under 2% at this point.
As for me, I exited almost all of my equities positions (mostly composed of TSLA) temporarily while I awaited news of Boehner's mindset, which I got yesterday. Coupled with the fire video, I felt that "buying" a temporary risk-reduction was worth missing out on a few dollars of potential share value increase. That's exactly what happened, and I bought back in at a $4/share differential, which was worth the reduced risk to me.
Happy trading everyone. I'm still hoping to see some warm and fuzzies from Elon to close out the fire issue soon, and am giddy about Q3 earnings run-up that I believe is coming soon.
Cheers,
Flux
Citizen-T
Active Member
New analyst starts coverage of TSLA at Sell: http://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+New+Coverage/Standpoint+Research+Starts+Tesla+Motors+%28TSLA%29+at+Sell/8752047.html
Update:
Nevermind, someone beat me to it.
Update:
Nevermind, someone beat me to it.
Norse
Active Member
Flux,
thanks so much for your recap. Do you think the speaker will wait till near the deadline before acting to raise the debt ceiling, or is he wise enough this time to act much sooner? I fear that if it is the former, then the markets will sell off and ask questions later, as no one likes the uncertainty of a possible default. Also, Two more weeks of a shutdown brings us perilously close to the 17th. Just want to know how to position my portfolio/tsla as we get closer to mid October. Thanks.
kevin99
Member
I am puzzled why these analysts coming up with this kind of report. They are so slow and TSLA 's move proceed them. I mean they are kind of irrelevant.
However the $140 price is a bold call though.
Tesla certainly makes some analysts' career and ruin some as well.
You're very welcome. The precise timing of a "deal" is much harder to call right now and I would be VERY careful about positions you expect to close in the next two weeks. My personal horizon is longer than that so I can afford to wait out a deal.
If he acts in typical DC fashion, I would guess that he will probably spend about another week bloviating and mouthing off to the press to *appear* to be as much on the side of Tea Party extremists as possible, before Jamie Dimon and his Wall St heavy-hitters bash the Speaker's door in and inform him that they will punish him severely if he does not release the hostage economy soon, regardless of Obamacare concessions.
A likely possible outcome right now is a situation in which, ironically, Harry Reid and the Dems work behind the scenes with less extreme Republicans to help preserve Boehner's career by helping his image as a wise and courageous crisis-averter rather than a pawn of Tea Party extremists. We shall see. As it stands right now, most in the party including Boehner have been too terrified to stand up to Tea Party powers. The push to hold the economy hostage to please some short-sighted drug company and insurance lobbies appears to be the final straw, and I think they are sick of it.
Time will tell, but I'd again be VERY cautious about positions you can't hold longer than two weeks at this point. Hard to call exact timing, but I suspect a deal around the 10th is not a bad guess. That is just my gut talking, PLEASE don't bank on it.
Hope that helps.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Well, in the U.S. many states have "right to work" laws. That can best be described as right to exploit workers.
"
According to the filed accident report, the only reason the car burned as much as it did is because local firefighters attempted to put out an electrical fire with water, before successfully switching out to a standard dry powder fire extinguisher."
Hadn't heard that before but makes perfect sense. In the video, you see the firefighter with the hose but it's not on. That could have been after they already attempted to put the fire out with water but it made it worse, and that's why the fire was really blazing. It could have been a really small fire before that. Interesting....
Hadn't heard that before but makes perfect sense. In the video, you see the firefighter with the hose but it's not on. That could have been after they already attempted to put the fire out with water but it made it worse, and that's why the fire was really blazing. It could have been a really small fire before that. Interesting....
Citizen-T
Active Member
Hey guys. Take a min and vote for Elon Musk to Marketwatch's CEO of the year.
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