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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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I feel like the luckiest guy in the world. I bought the Sept 200 Calls the day after earnings at 3.2. After TSLA peaked at 158 that day they dropped in value quickly as the Implied Vol got sucked out of them. I then bought some more at 1.94 which averaged me down to 2.57.

Everyday since i've wanted to sell them and cut my losses and then as TSLA bounced off 138 (calls were .15 at that point) and started to creep higher i saw a glimmer of hope that i'd be able to cut some of my losses down. At this point it was worth it to hold on since they were already a 90% loss. By the end of last week my losses were cut by more then half. Here we are today, BOOM, i sold 6 out of the 8 Calls i had at or prety close to today's high (2.95 & 2.88).

As i type this, as TSLA falls, i see the Calls are now 1.88. Wow, could anyone be any more lucky. THANKS TSLA! I now have two calls remaining and i'll leave them on as a lottery ticket.
 
I guess I'm glad I bought some puts. Not many, but something to make me feel like I was able to take advantage of this nice jump, haha. The question now will be when to sell them. I'm thinking tomorrow after TSLA Tuesday is over ;)

Same here. Might sell for profit soon, don't want to get too greedy. And if there is a further dip might just use that as an opportunity to buy more.

I also sold some covered calls, not sure if I should buy back to close for a decent profit or just set up risk free bull call spreads.
 
Thanks for this. I'm curious to see if I could stretch for a 15 year mortgage. Will it give me that big of an upper hand vs. a 30 year, specially with interest rates being relatively competitive vs. previous years?

Never, ever take a 30 year mortgage. Ever. You'll spend the first 10 years paying almost exclusively interest and building up zippo in equity. 20 year mortgage at most, then pay weekly (instead of a tradition monthly payment) will bring it down to about 15 years. 15 year mortgage paid weekly will bring it down to a 12-12.5 yr mortgage. If you can't swing weekly payments, then do bi-monthly and that'll still chop a couple years right off the top.
 
I look forward to DaveT, Sleepy, Austin, Curt analysis of today and the rest of the week. CitizenT: Please tell me when it is safe to buy again :wink:. Today, you were 'the man'

I bought some Sep6 $160 puts today around market open, but then quickly sold them for a small profit when I realized it will be an up day. I then bought some Aug30 $160 puts when the stock reached $172 and they have already doubled since the purchase. I would like to know when to sell these? Anybody?

The reason I said that the stock will close below $165 (this was when it was still at $168, but after the $173 ATH) is that once the momentum broke down buying volume also broke down. This gives the shorts a perfect setup to start their bear-raids. With no buyers left it is very easy to push the stock price down throught the stops.

This is a very similar setup that I saw on the day after earnings. The stock continued its gradual climb to $158.88 on low volume and then got punished hard by the shorts over the next 4 days.

I am holding on to my puts for the time being, at least until tomorrow hoping they end up in the money. I sold some shares today at $165 and then some more at $172. I still hold a good chunk of shares though. All of my leaps and options I was able to cover with short calls of same expiry but higher strike price (aka delayed construct bull call spread). I am learning that this is a very nice strategy, because even though I am long TSLA, I am hoping for it to fall in the short term, so that I can buy new LEAPS and then construct new (hopefully risk-free) delayed construct spreads later when/if the price rebounds again.

And since I sold the short leg of the spread, I have the cash on hand to initiate a new position should such an opportunity present itself again in the near future.

Note: In the time it took me to write this my puts have gone up another 30%.
 
Never, ever take a 30 year mortgage. Ever. You'll spend the first 10 years paying almost exclusively interest and building up zippo in equity. 20 year mortgage at most, then pay weekly (instead of a tradition monthly payment) will bring it down to about 15 years. 15 year mortgage paid weekly will bring it down to a 12-12.5 yr mortgage. If you can't swing weekly payments, then do bi-monthly and that'll still chop a couple years right off the top.

Huh? Interest rates are so low and mortgage interest is tax deductible. Compounding dividends on a super-safe stock that returns a measly 3% would be a much better use of your capital than paying down debt that is that cheap. Just make sure you are investing the difference in your mortgage payments (e.g. between the 20-year and 30-year) don't go spending it on bubble gum.
 
You realize CitizenT, DaveT, sleepy, etc. all have become very influential in terms of the direction the stock will take, on these kind of days of run-up or decline anyways. Just look at the # of users browsing this thread on those days. Guests usually outnumber members 2:1 or 3:1. They notice big movement in the share price and check TMC for opinions. When's CitizenT calling for caution? What's sleepy's prediction for the close? What about DaveT's take on the fundamentals?

I'm just saying, forget the Morgan Stanley analyst ... You guys have become the influencers ... and your opinions may become self fulfilling prophecies
 
Never, ever take a 30 year mortgage.

That's only true if you have no other debt. If you have any debt at a higher interest rate, it's worth getting (or keeping) a 30 year mortgage in order to pay the other debt of first.


20 year mortgage at most, then pay weekly (instead of a tradition monthly payment) will bring it down to about 15 years. 15 year mortgage paid weekly will bring it down to a 12-12.5 yr mortgage. If you can't swing weekly payments, then do bi-monthly and that'll still chop a couple years right off the top.

Bi-monthly doesn't take off any time from a mortgage. Two-weekly does.But that's not the same thing. You can similarly cut your mortgage time down by making 1 extra payment per year. That is effectively all that weekly or two-weekly payment systems do.

But again, it's seldom the right thing to do unless your mortgage is your only debt (and even then you have to weigh it up against e.g. leaving money in TSLA). Mortgage interest is tax deductible, other interest is not. So e.g. if you have a 2.5% mortgage interest rate and a 2% car financing rate, and you pay 35% taxes, it's still better making those extra principal payments on the car rather than the mortgage. Once the car has been paid off (e.g. 2 years early), use that money you would have paid on the car for 2 years and pay principal on the mortgage.

That would put you further ahead than just having paid it into the mortgage.
 
Never, ever take a 30 year mortgage. Ever. You'll spend the first 10 years paying almost exclusively interest and building up zippo in equity. 20 year mortgage at most, then pay weekly (instead of a tradition monthly payment) will bring it down to about 15 years. 15 year mortgage paid weekly will bring it down to a 12-12.5 yr mortgage. If you can't swing weekly payments, then do bi-monthly and that'll still chop a couple years right off the top.

This is getting way too off topic, but as with anything "it depends". Sometimes mortgage interest is your friend. At only 3.625% for a 30 yr fixed, I have access to hundreds of k of cheap money. A loan that the fed subsidizes down to a lower effective rate. In fact, without mortgage interest I probably wouldn't get over the standard deduction and be able to deduct property taxes or sales taxes. So its like I am borrowing for 2.5% or so. All I have to do is earn more than that and I am ahead. Since I actually have the cash, I will sit it in Lending Club (9%/yr) and have it make the payments for me. In fact, I project that in 15 years or so the interest portion might have shrunk too low and I might really need to refinance, pull the principal out and restart a 30 yr, assuming rates are good again then. Assuming you don't have house money in cash, it is still better if you have rock-solid financial discipline and invest the extra money you *would* have paid into a 15 or 10 year mortgage payment into something higher yielding (seriously, lending club) and using arbitrage to make money. If you let your sacred "house fund" compound the interest you will enough money to pay off the mortgage faster than a 15 year straight payment. However, 99.9% of people lack this discipline. The feature/flaw of mortgage principal is that it is savings that cannot be raided.
 
I bought some Sep6 $160 puts today around market open, but then quickly sold them for a small profit when I realized it will be an up day. I then bought some Aug30 $160 puts when the stock reached $172 and they have already doubled since the purchase. I would like to know when to sell these? Anybody?

.

I would sell a 'covered put' to hedge it.

I bought Aug5 put @180 for $11.50 when it was $171. Already at $18. Yes I like to pay more to be in the money, for such extreme short term option.

I then sold Aug5 put @165 for $5 when it took a dive to $164. My trade is locked in between -$6 ~ $10 in five days.

Same philosophy: I don't try to be greedy and maximize the gain, but I try to minimize the risk when there is a chance and leave some room.

I don't go out and look for trade like this. But when market presents such a extreme swing, I do not hesitate to pull the trigger.
 
This is getting way too off topic, but as with anything "it depends". Sometimes mortgage interest is your friend. At only 3.625% for a 30 yr fixed, I have access to hundreds of k of cheap money. A loan that the fed subsidizes down to a lower effective rate. In fact, without mortgage interest I probably wouldn't get over the standard deduction and be able to deduct property taxes or sales taxes. So its like I am borrowing for 2.5% or so. All I have to do is earn more than that and I am ahead. Since I actually have the cash, I will sit it in Lending Club (9%/yr) and have it make the payments for me. In fact, I project that in 15 years or so the interest portion might have shrunk too low and I might really need to refinance, pull the principal out and restart a 30 yr, assuming rates are good again then. Assuming you don't have house money in cash, it is still better if you have rock-solid financial discipline and invest the extra money you *would* have paid into a 15 or 10 year mortgage payment into something higher yielding (seriously, lending club) and using arbitrage to make money. If you let your sacred "house fund" compound the interest you will enough money to pay off the mortgage faster than a 15 year straight payment. However, 99.9% of people lack this discipline. The feature/flaw of mortgage principal is that it is savings that cannot be raided.

Just started lending club last month. It's blowing my mind with it's awesomeness. I can't recommend it yet as I haven't given it enough time to see how many people will default.

In on topic news my puts are up 70% in just a couple hours. You don't see those kind of returns in lendingclub ;) I should've bought more puts...
 
We're in the red folks.

That is what I was afraid when there is the jump without significant news. All it takes to reverse the momentum is it runs up too fast and furious:

A pre-market jump without significant news is not necessary a good sign. Could well be the precursor for a pull back.

I rather see a slow and steady creep up, a silent exterminator for the shorts.


I am afraid it could come early. The stock is moving to either direction without much underlying change of events. All it needs is a bit of momentum to continue on the same direction then perhaps a bit too fast and furious to trigger the other direction.

Hope I am wrong.
 
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