Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Citizen-T]

Curt, Dave T, Sleepy, Citizen...I have been waiting for another buying opportunity. Predictions on stabilization point today? Would it be wiser (I know these are opinions and not facts...I will not hold anyone to their predictions) to wait for aftermarket or Thursday for a better buying opportunity?

I can only tell you what I'm doing. I had taken profits when we were at the ATH, so I started buying it back at $135 (all with calls).

 

[Johan]

Yes, indeed. This appears to be another set of hedge fund short selling attacks often seen during the first ninety minutes of trading. We usually see them on Tuesdays, but those today are on greater volume. They trigger cascades through tight stop loss limits set by weak longs. The initiators of the attacks can leisurely cover at a profit throughout the day or perhaps another day.

The weak longs are short term traders, many of them day traders. As more and more affluent people become Model S owners, I suspect many of them also become strong long term shareholders due to great satisfaction with the product. They buy from the short sellers and the weak longs. They are not usually on margin, and despite owning thousands of shares of TSLA, it is not likely a majority of their assets. They are confident the company will be a success and can ignore price swings.

As the base of strong buy & hold shareholders grows, short selling attacks will become less and less successful. For a while pundits and analysts will continue to be puzzled by a share price seemingly not justified by current fundamentals. It will be supported by rock solid shareholders believing in the potential of the company eventually bearing bountiful fruit. If they are not selling, then any dips would be brief and the ultimate gains unlimited.

Could this sell off not also be a sign of investors taking up short positions i.e. a lot of short-selling in anticipation of the Q2 call?

 

[GJMcManus]

Just people panicking about feds talking about ratcheting back stimulus.. Readjusting their positions in "less risky" investments in case the market (in general) continues to be in the red.

I am one of those that are in it for the long run, taking advantage of dips to buy at lower price.

 

[AlMc]

I can only tell you what I'm doing. I had taken profits when we were at the ATH, so I started buying it back at $135 (all with calls).

Thanks.

 

[sleepyhead]

Curt, Dave T, Sleepy, Citizen...I have been waiting for another buying opportunity. Predictions on stabilization point today? Would it be wiser (I know these are opinions and not facts...I will not hold anyone to their predictions) to wait for aftermarket or Thursday for a better buying opportunity?

I am extremely bullish on the earnings report, so you may not want to listen to me. I would buy today and ride out the earnings and hopefully reap some gains.

If you decide to wait until post earnings then sell a put with a strike price that you would like to get in on Tesla. That way if Tesla goes up tomorrow at least you made money on selling the put. But if Tesla goes down, you will be able to buy at your strike price minus what you received for the put premium.

I have a lot of my eggs in TSLA right now and a good chunk of it in calls.

 

[twinklejet]

Can someone tell me why the market is closing at one pm today

 

[bonnie]

1 pm PST. That's what time it always closes. (4pm EST)

 

[twinklejet]

1 pm PST. That's what time it always closes. (4pm EST)

oh did not notice the timezone as I was glancing through the posts thanks!

 

[fjm9898]

I have a lot of my eggs in TSLA right now and a good chunk of it in calls.

Sleepy i think we are in the same boat after the SPWR debacle. On the Off chance history repeats itself i am closing all my brokerage accounts because obviously wall street has me doomed to fail the second half of the year.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Just added a few in Europe, markets close here shortly. Got them for 100,26 € / 133,53 USD. All in for the long run guys. Hold fast

 

[MartinAustin]

I bought some actual stock at $133.00 since that was 9% off yesterday's high. It seems to be staying above that so far - phew! (famous last words)

 

[NuclearPowered]

My position is fully built. Showing overall gains from this week still, but still getting crushed today Bring on the ER and aleviate this anxiety.

 

[sleepyhead]

What's the quickest way to get the shareholder letter? Will Tesla email it to me, since I signed up to receive communication? Is there a quicker way?

 

[Johan]

What's the quickest way to get the shareholder letter? Will Tesla email it to me, since I signed up to receive communication? Is there a quicker way?

F5 on ir.teslamotors.com. It will magically appear there

 

[ckessel]

A question I've had for a long while. I'm not a stock guy. I haven't looked into options, calls, puts, etc. I vaguely understand their purpose.

Everything I can afford to save is already in TSLA. My monthly cash flow is barely break even and that isn't likely to change for a few years.

So, to the question. Can I realistically do better by selling some percentage of TSLA to engage in "buy the dips, sell the ATH", calls/puts, etc? I can devote some time to learning the trade tools (e.g. options), but it can't be a full time hobby.

 

[sleepyhead]

A question I've had for a long while. I'm not a stock guy. I haven't looked into options, calls, puts, etc. I vaguely understand their purpose.

Everything I can afford to save is already in TSLA. My monthly cash flow is barely break even and that isn't likely to change for a few years.

So, to the question. Can I realistically do better by selling some percentage of TSLA to engage in "buy the dips, sell the ATH", calls/puts, etc? I can devote some time to learning the trade tools (e.g. options), but it can't be a full time hobby.

No, you can't realistically do better. It requires a lot of luck and perfect timing.

 

[SebastianR]

No, you can't realistically do better. It requires a lot of luck and perfect timing.

OP: Also, watch for the difference between gambling and investing. And remember that too much greed destroys a lot of money (if it was a "sure bet", then the price would be higher, except you have info that nobody else has...)

 

[deonb]

Looks like the option premiums are dropping rapidly

I don't know which specifically - I have too many different strikes to be able to track . I just know my overall position was better at $133 an hour ago than it is now at $135. My account is call-heavy.

Could be a buying opportunity if someone is still interested to add.

 

[emupilot]

A question I've had for a long while. I'm not a stock guy. I haven't looked into options, calls, puts, etc. I vaguely understand their purpose.

Everything I can afford to save is already in TSLA. My monthly cash flow is barely break even and that isn't likely to change for a few years.

So, to the question. Can I realistically do better by selling some percentage of TSLA to engage in "buy the dips, sell the ATH", calls/puts, etc? I can devote some time to learning the trade tools (e.g. options), but it can't be a full time hobby.

If you have a stock which is generally going up, you could probably do better buying and holding long-term options like Jan 2015 than buy and hold the stock proper since options give you leverage. Obviously, you risk more if the stock doesn't continue to rise. I use options but feel compelled to take my profits when I double my money, so I sell after run-ups and buy in again on the dips (even if those dips are higher than when I sold). I'd get better returns if I didn't take profits, but my returns have still been better than just buying and holding the stock.

 

[DaveT]

Strange things happen. Yesterday I was telling my wife I was going to wait for afterhours today to buy stock after reading the shareholder letter UNLESS the stock dips under $135 today, then I'll buy option calls. So I wake up and stock is $138-139. I go back to bed. Then, my wife wakes me up and says, "Dave, TSLA's below $135."

Bought mostly Aug13 160s and Sept13 160s as an earnings play.

disclaimer: my earnings play today is high risk and is a small % of my overall TSLA holdings which are mostly stock and LEAPs. Also, I don't plan on holding on to the calls until expiry but will likely sell them much earlier.

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A question I've had for a long while. I'm not a stock guy. I haven't looked into options, calls, puts, etc. I vaguely understand their purpose.

Everything I can afford to save is already in TSLA. My monthly cash flow is barely break even and that isn't likely to change for a few years.

So, to the question. Can I realistically do better by selling some percentage of TSLA to engage in "buy the dips, sell the ATH", calls/puts, etc? I can devote some time to learning the trade tools (e.g. options), but it can't be a full time hobby.

Is your TSLA holdings in a tax-deferred account (ie., IRA)? Or a regular account?

I'm asking because if it's in a tax-deferred account, then I might be able to suggest something.