Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[MikeC]

New all-time closing high of 121.61.

But not too much excitement on this thread about this. I guess this is something we're all just getting used to.

Yawn. It jumped a little at the end to make it a decent day, but after the last couple months, I'm disappointed when it doesn't gain at least 5%. I think I might be spoiled. Hope we don't get the weekly Tuesday dip tomorrow.

 

[c041v]

Yawn. It jumped a little at the end to make it a decent day, but after the last couple months, I'm disappointed when it doesn't gain at least 5%. I think I might be spoiled. Hope we don't get the weekly Tuesday dip tomorrow.

"Yeah, I guess this golden goose is okay. Shame it doesn't lay a dozen eggs every day, though."

I'll take the <5% daily gains, as they make me value my job more.

 

[DaveT]

"Yeah, I guess this golden goose is okay. Shame it doesn't lay a dozen eggs every day, though."

I'll take the <5% daily gains, as they make me value my job more.

Seriously, slower and steadier gains and then maybe I can focus on my work and not be riveted to the quote ticker.

 

[Curt Renz]

Yawn. It jumped a little at the end to make it a decent day, but after the last couple months, I'm disappointed when it doesn't gain at least 5%. I think I might be spoiled. Hope we don't get the weekly Tuesday dip tomorrow.

Gains of 1.27% per day compounded over 250 trading days per year results in the price being multiplied over 23 times.

 

[dmckinstry]

Gains of 1.27% per day compounded over 250 trading days per year results in the price being multiplied over 23 times.

Ho Hum. I guess I can live with that. Even if it weren't compounded, it would be over $400/share at the end of a year. That's still not too shabby.

Seriously, I'd rather see slow steady growth like this than all the volatility we've seen in the past.

 

[clmason]

Seriously, I'd rather see slow steady growth like this than all the volatility we've seen in the past.

Where is the volatility? The price keeps going up and up. Give me a correction so I can reenter...

 

[DaveT]

Tesla to join the NASDAQ 100 Index:
Tesla Motors, Inc. to Join the NASDAQ-100 Index Beginning July 15, 2013 - Yahoo! Finance

Update: Curt just posted this as a separate thread. Go there for discussion: Tesla Motors Added to NASDAQ-100 Index Effective July 15

 

[Convert2013]

Where is the volatility? The price keeps going up and up. Give me a correction so I can reenter...

This is a high-tech company. High-multiples are expected at the early growth phases. As long as better than expected quarterly results are announced each quarter we will keep marching up. Am also hoping orders for Gen 3 will start by end of this year/beginning of 2014. To become a $50 to $60 billion company the existing planned product portfolio is OK. To go beyond $100 billion mark, they may need cars in the high $20 to low $30K range (stripped down versions of the Gen 3 platform maybe) to get higher sales volume.

 

[Clprenz]

Off topic: Elon did say, "We should be quiet for a while" when asked when the announcement were going to stop. My theory; 5 star safety rating in every category, great reception in other countries, excellent Q2 and Q3... this seems like something Elon would do.

 

[DaveT]

Possibility of a pop before opening tomorrow...

From the WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130205-713234.html):
"Stocks usually see a slight gain after the announcement of inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, as investment funds that track the index must buy the shares. Barclays has found that companies being added to the index usually gain 1.2% from the closing price on the day of the announcement to the opening price the following day."

 

[FredTMC]

Possibility of a pop before opening tomorrow...

From the WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130205-713234.html):
"Stocks usually see a slight gain after the announcement of inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, as investment funds that track the index must buy the shares. Barclays has found that companies being added to the index usually gain 1.2% from the closing price on the day of the announcement to the opening price the following day."

Further gains tomorrow are always welcomed! Currently future are up slightly. Certainly helps if the market is up tomorrow too

 

[maekuz]

Pre-Market: $126 at 5:31 am, Volume 6,600

 

[ppl]

Pre-Market: $126 at 5:31 am, Volume 6,600

I suspect we could see a mini short squeeze. If your short you have to be sweating with earrings report soon and gap Today. The published short ratio is 3 weeks old with shorters adding to position with recent price increases. People are slow to learn/admit errors. I suspect many believe their only mistake was the price they chose to short at

 

[AlMc]

I suspect we could see a mini short squeeze. If your short you have to be sweating with earrings report soon and gap Today. The published short ratio is 3 weeks old with shorters adding to position with recent price increases. People are slow to learn/admit errors. I suspect many believe their only mistake was the price they chose to short at

Yes. It is human nature to think that you can't have been wrong with your opinion about something. What is the definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

 

[toastypasta]

Forgot i bought some August 17th $150 calls. Gonna be a sweet day.

 

[FredTMC]

Big pop back above $123 just now.

 

[DaveT]

Interesting article about stock price jumping above convertible note conversion price:
Tesla Jumps Above $600 Million Note Conversion Price - TheStreet

 

[Robert.Boston]

Interesting article about stock price jumping above convertible note conversion price:
Tesla Jumps Above $600 Million Note Conversion Price - TheStreet

It is unclear how quickly holders will convert their notes for Tesla shares given the company's steadily rising share price and a moderate 1.5% coupon attached to the notes. Tesla didn't immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

Uniformed authors. The bonds are only convertible if the price stays above the conversion price ($124.52) for 20 days, after Sept. 28, 2013.

 

[twinklejet]

Interesting article about stock price jumping above convertible note conversion price:
Tesla Jumps Above $600 Million Note Conversion Price - TheStreet

How do the convertible notes affect the stock when they are converted? Does it amount to dilution?

 

[sleepyhead]

Interesting article about stock price jumping above convertible note conversion price:
Tesla Jumps Above $600 Million Note Conversion Price - TheStreet

Good article, but they make it sound like Tesla is going to receive an additional $600m in cash which obviously is not the case. The only thing the conversion will effect is that Tesla will not have to pay $9m/year in Interest Expense. No point in converting your bonds anyway (unless they are callable, I think I have read that there are some kind of provisions to encourage/force conversion), since you might as well collect the interest and then convert to common stock on the maturity date.

- - - Updated - - -

How do the convertible notes affect the stock when they are converted? Does it amount to dilution?

Yes, it amounts to dilution. But when you issue financial statements you calculate basic EPS and adjusted EPS which takes into account all potentially dilutive securities.

Wall Street only cares about Diluted EPS, so this conversion will not make a difference in Wall Street EPS numbers. Only difference will be less interest expense on the income statement.