Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[moltenfire]

Guys, I don't want to be a bear, but please rein in your expectations of TSLA $1000 or TSLA $2000. I'm a fellow shareholder same as you, but remember it was less than a year ago (Sept 2012) that the AAPL crowd was also chanting AAPL $1000, and look at its share price now ($444).

 

[mitch672]

Guys, I don't want to be a bear, but please rein in your expectations of TSLA $1000 or TSLA $2000. I'm a fellow shareholder same as you, but remember it was less than a year ago (Sept 2012) that the AAPL crowd was also chanting AAPL $1000, and look at its share price now ($444).

TSLA could reach $400/share, assuming Elon meets all of his 10 year CEO goals, but that could take the next 10 years, so yes, patience is going to be required. Remember, stocks usually rise slowly but on any bad news drop like a stone, we haven't experienced that yet with the recent run up, but it's inevitable.

 

[dmckinstry]

I'm having a hard time regretting selling 1/2 my shares at $85 given what it did for my personal level of financial risk, but....daaammnnn. I guess that's why I have the other 1/2 of my shares . Just for my personal amusement, I figured if TSLA hits $400 I can retire about 5 years early.

And I'm not sorry I sold half my TSLA at $92.4 the day before it reached $97. But, I was tired of waiting to get my Model S. Now, I can (so to speak) have my cake and eat it too.

 

[ShortSlaver]

TSLA could reach $400/share, assuming Elon meets all of his 10 year CEO goals, but that could take the next 10 years, so yes, patience is going to be required. Remember, stocks usually rise slowly but on any bad news drop like a stone, we haven't experienced that yet with the recent run up, but it's inevitable.

As they say, bears take the elevator, bulls take the stairs.

 

[Johan]

Here's a stock chart from May 7th to today.

The circles are significant gap ups, the four blue circles are gaps that have not been filled, while the red one is a gap that has been filled.
1st: May 8-9, $55.7 to $70
2nd: May 10-13 (weekend), $76.7 to $81
3rd: May 13-14, $87.8 to $94.50
4th: May 15-16, $84.8 to $95
5th: May 24-today (long weekend), $97 to $101.7

Now, most technical analysis theory that I've come across states that eventually "all gaps are filled". What do you guys think about TSLA? Are these four blue circled, significant gap ups, a sign that some of the recent run up is a bit of a bubble? Or are there other growt stocks historically that have made such gap ups and never looked back?

 

[Benz]

Guys, I don't want to be a bear, but please rein in your expectations of TSLA $1000 or TSLA $2000. I'm a fellow shareholder same as you, but remember it was less than a year ago (Sept 2012) that the AAPL crowd was also chanting AAPL $1000, and look at its share price now ($444).

Dear friend,

Not many people are yet aware of the impact of the vision of Elon Musk on our way of mobility and on our planet.

Prepare to be surprised.

 

[ckessel]

I'm curious what's driving today's increase. The stock had sort of comfortably settled by wandering about in the 85-95 range. Even with the stock offering, it didn't move much (well, for TSLA). The supercharger announcement is imminent, but that's been well known for a few weeks. Maybe just lots of people reading the news and seeing Tesla's name over the long weekend.

 

[Johan]

I'm curious what's driving today's increase. The stock had sort of comfortably settled by wandering about in the 85-95 range. Even with the stock offering, it didn't move much (well, for TSLA). The supercharger announcement is imminent, but that's been well known for a few weeks. Maybe just lots of people reading the news and seeing Tesla's name over the long weekend.

Perhaps breaking the $100 barrier has some psychological impact as well? Us humans like to think that we are rational and logical when in fact mostly we are driven by emotions, passions and other intangibles.

 

[AudubonB]

For another perspective - If this represents the normal Torpid Tuesday....Good Golly, Miss Molly!

 

[DaveT]

I'm curious what's driving today's increase. The stock had sort of comfortably settled by wandering about in the 85-95 range. Even with the stock offering, it didn't move much (well, for TSLA). The supercharger announcement is imminent, but that's been well known for a few weeks. Maybe just lots of people reading the news and seeing Tesla's name over the long weekend.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Goldman Sach's visit and the interview they had with Elon.
Tesla shares top $100 - The Tell - MarketWatch

 

[twinklejet]

I'm curious what's driving today's increase. The stock had sort of comfortably settled by wandering about in the 85-95 range. Even with the stock offering, it didn't move much (well, for TSLA). The supercharger announcement is imminent, but that's been well known for a few weeks. Maybe just lots of people reading the news and seeing Tesla's name over the long weekend.

Supply and demand.

Demand: While I sit here typing on my keyboard, Tesla is deliverying more and more cars. These owners take delivery and could possibly love the car so much they buy the stock. This is a continuous and endless stream. Add to that the neighbor effect - the neighbors see the new car, wonder about it, search for it, are intrigued by it, can't afford it (or order one), and consider buying the stock. This is also a continuous stream as long as Tesla keeps deliverying cars (since there is no advertising present except for this word of mouth.) Over the long weekend, people get together and talk - likely about what they want to talk about and for many people this might include their new car (Tesla) and how their stock is giving such a great return. Convinced people in turn buy the car / stock come Tuesday. In the process, Multiple news outlets keep regurgitating the stories about Tesla paying back the loan, the kindergartenders fitting into the car, the Goldman Sachs visit of the factory, and various other news that keeps the brand in the consciousness of the retail/instituitional investors. Many are adding to their positions seeing the meteoric rise, etc. etc. etc.

Supply: While I sit here still typing away on my keyboard, the total number of shares doesn't change. We're done with the share offer so whatever you can buy comes from others who are willing to sell - at a profit.

Increaming demand with no increase in supply invariably only leads to..... the price of the stock increasing.

 

[gregincal]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Goldman Sach's visit and the interview they had with Elon.
Tesla shares top $100 - The Tell - MarketWatch

Yeah, that contained some more optimistic projections from Tesla than we've heard before (like expecting 500K/year sales once they're making Gen 3). People may be more inclined to believe Tesla's projections now than they used to. That would put them at about a third the production of BMW (last year annual automobile production of 1.5 million).

 

[Bardlebee]

When is the supercharger announcement this week. I know that will probably affect the stock, you think?
I thought the announcement was today... no?

 

[Majerus]

broke 105

 

[MikeL]

broke 105

Kind of makes all those 'screen shots' at $48 $61 etc. in my photo file seem quaint

 

[mitch672]

Can you imagine the terror the "smarter" shorters are feeling, as they shorted at $85, $90 etc. they are going to be fueling this rise as well, if they are smart they will cover quickly and not let it get too far away from them. With that said, there are probably new shorters at this level taking positions, even as I type this. God help them.

 

[DaveT]

Supply and demand.

Demand: While I sit here typing on my keyboard, Tesla is deliverying more and more cars. These owners take delivery and could possibly love the car so much they buy the stock. This is a continuous and endless stream. Add to that the neighbor effect - the neighbors see the new car, wonder about it, search for it, are intrigued by it, can't afford it (or order one), and consider buying the stock. This is also a continuous stream as long as Tesla keeps deliverying cars (since there is no advertising present except for this word of mouth.) Over the long weekend, people get together and talk - likely about what they want to talk about and for many people this might include their new car (Tesla) and how their stock is giving such a great return. Convinced people in turn buy the car / stock come Tuesday. In the process, Multiple news outlets keep regurgitating the stories about Tesla paying back the loan, the kindergartenders fitting into the car, the Goldman Sachs visit of the factory, and various other news that keeps the brand in the consciousness of the retail/instituitional investors. Many are adding to their positions seeing the meteoric rise, etc. etc. etc.

Supply: While I sit here still typing away on my keyboard, the total number of shares doesn't change. We're done with the share offer so whatever you can buy comes from others who are willing to sell - at a profit.

Increaming demand with no increase in supply invariably only leads to..... the price of the stock increasing.

@Twinklejet - got to agree with you here. Demand for TSLA shares increase from both individuals who have bought the Model S and those who have friends who have (or those who just hear about it). And demand also increases from institutions as Tesla becomes a more established company. I see demand only increases from institutions as Tesla approaches 25% gross margins by end of year.

Also, supply for TSLA shares are limited largely because Elon holds a huge share, institutions hold a huge share and there are lots of individuals who are believers and won't sell. That leaves a limited number of shares that are traded. Combine that with demand that just goes up with each new car that's sold and you have upward pressure on the stock.

 

[Johan]

Can you imagine the terror the "smarter" shorters are feeling, as they shorted at $85, $90 etc. they are going to be fueling this rise as well, if they are smart they will cover quickly and not let it get too far away from them. With that said, there are probably new shorters at this level taking positions, even as I type this. God help them.

Spot on. An image (I think it's from M.C. Escher) from a neighbouring thread (Making the Model S the Best Car Ever (laws of physics need not apply)!)!) comes to mind which visually sums up the current dynamic of TSLA:

 

[theganjaguru]

I noticed as of 5/15/13 there were 23m shares - though they had a day to cover. At that time I believe TSLA was about $80 a share Anyone care to tell me if they think if the shorts are still in the game and do they still have effect on the stock price?
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com

Personal note: I have never gambled in stocks, but really believed in TSLA when I saw the model S would not be DOA. While I didn't buy many shares I bought some at $27, $31, $34 and $36. - I am a happy camper.

 

[FredTMC]

Wow. We could see $110 today. Currently HOD at $107.25. Sheesh. What a day