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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Elon's purpose with PayPal, Tesla Motors and SolarCity is to make money, albeit in an environmentally friendly manner. The purpose of most other corporations is to make money for their shareholders. The purpose of SpaceX is to fulfill Elon's dream that can be funded by money earned from his practical projects. I won't divert money that I'm placing into Elon's practical enterprises in order to fund SpaceX.

I trust Elon to make money with his non-space colonization projects. I do not expect to miss out financially from Elon, since I can own a larger share of Tesla Motors, if I own no SpaceX. He has said that when he first created SpaceX he expected to blow most of his PayPal fortune to fulfill a dream, not to make more money. I get it. I've been an enthusiastic amateur astronomer for sixty years and excitedly followed the early space missions. I'll happily cheer for Elon's success in space without my having to pay for it, while continuing to reap the rewards from his earthly projects.


Curt,

I think you are missing out even more than you can imagine. You think that rockets don't make money?

Tell that to the lines out the door that want satellite launches.

Even excluding all of the government work for NASA, the private contracts are worth $Billions SpaceX Wins New Commercial Launch Order | Innerspace.net

Even though Elon is planning for Mars with Space X, which MAY not result in a quick return, there's lots of money to be made in space.
 
Were getting a little off topic here but I heard that Space X won every single order for satellite launching that it competes in. When he perfects the reusable rocket the profit margins will be insane on his launches .... that being said ... if TSLA and Solar city keep doing very well I think he might keep space X private so he can pursue his long range goals without worrying about how to frame the Mars mission in money making terms.
 
The purpose of SpaceX is to fulfill Elon's dream that can be funded by money earned from his practical projects. I won't divert money that I'm placing into Elon's practical enterprises in order to fund SpaceX.

If SpaceX can successfully develop Grasshopper (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoxiK7K28PU) into an effective orbital delivery system, I think they could possibly earn an unimaginable amount of money from commercial and government contracts. The price of space launches depends heavily on the cost of building a completely disposable vehicle. A simple, re-usable vehicle could alter profit margins significantly.

Ultimately, I think that the Mars colonization stuff will use SpaceX technology, but I believe that the funding would come from governments and wealthy private groups. A "Mars Foundation", separate from SpaceX, would raise funds from government agencies, corporations, space enthusiast groups, wealthy individuals, and/or people who want to buy tickets to become Mars colonists. This Foundation would use its money to purchase mission assets from SpaceX. The way I see things, SpaceX creates the technological knowledge and infrastructure necessary for a Mars mission. I don't believe that SpaceX itself will be building and operating Mars colonies.

Back on topic though: For people still nervous about TSLA's daily price volatility, don't sweat the bumps in the road. If you look at stocks that generated big returns for investors in the past, like AAPL and INTC, the process took years, or even decades. For most investors, trying to score big profits right away is tempting, but that's really speculating, not investing.

Someone earlier counseled patience, and I can think of no word that would be more appropriate. In my experience, patience nearly always wins. For most stock buyers, trading in and out of a stock usually only enriches the brokerage.
 
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Likely a really stupid question on my part which shows my ignorance of how IPO's work, but could Elon give any preference to TSLA or SCTY share holders at the IPO of SpaceX?

If Tesla continues to do well, don't hold your breath waiting for Elon to take SpaceX public. SpaceX current Falcon 9 is approx 1/4 the cost of comparable lift vehicles by old line companies and gov't consortia. It will be generating plenty of profits this year and next few. If they can pull off partial or full reusability (anyone really care to bet against them after seeing Grasshopper progress?) SpaceX will monopolize a far greater marketplace than now exists. Putting a pound into LEO now costs $10,000/lb. Full reusability could lower that to $500 or less. SpaceX will be making billions per year and Elon can direct all of that as he chooses. Don't think he'll want to give that up until he is in a lounge chair on a Martian plain being terra formed to a beach!
 
Disagree. In fact the "secret plan" blog long ago makes it clear that's not the goal.

Understood, however my point was that he needs to make enough money with Tesla Motors to fund manned missions to Mars. In that regard I have little doubt that any SpaceX IPO would be priced quite high, probably way too high. Demonstrated success with a reusable rocket will help convince IPO investors of near term profitability from government and corporate contracts. Not only would some IPO investors be encouraged by the successes of PayPal, Tesla Motors and SolarCity, but a huge number of outer space enthusiasts would be willing to shell out money just to see a man on Mars. But following the IPO those initial investors may eventually have a hard time finding others to whom they could sell their shares at an even higher price. Those others will have an array of investments from which to choose, and they’ll need to be convinced that any envisioned manned mission to the Moon or Mars would be highly profitable to SpaceX. For now such missions would appear to be financial sinkholes. I for one would not cash in any Tesla Motors shares in order to invest in SpaceX at what would likely be the IPO price. Elon probably will, but he can afford to throw away billions to fulfill his dream of a lifetime. As for any of you willing to join him, I certainly wish you the very best.
 
That's essentially what I said. And that will allow the IPO to be priced far too high.

As we are seeing with TSLA, what defines "too high"? TSLA is currently priced several years ahead of its current profits.
If SpaceX allows the NASA and the U.S. to "Commercialize" H3 extraction on the moon, the IPO price will probably be considered inexpensive several years from that point. H3 fits right in with Elons beliefs and goals as well (ending the use of burning fossil fuels in earths atmosphere), the goals of TSLA and SpaceX are inline, going to Mars is his "end game", but SpaceX needs to be a viable company to get the goal done, along the voyage we might have a chance to participate.
 
How far out and what milestones are baked into Tesla's current share price? Question for anyone wanting to answer. Thanks.

Hard to say, will TSLA be valued as a "technology" company with a high P/E, or as an "automotive" manufacturer, with typically much lower P/E? Right now it's in a growth phase and being valued as a technology company... They are the first of their kind, defining a new industry (an electric car as good as an ICE car with no compromise), they are a "disruptive force", a first mover and industry leader in a new industry, hard to place a value on that. Based on Elons CEO executive compensation package, the goal is to get TSLA to have about a $50B valuation, that's nearly 5 times the current value.
 
Based on Elons CEO executive compensation package, the goal is to get TSLA to have about a $50B valuation, that's nearly 5 times the current value.


Just to clarify and add, the last market capitalization goal in the CEO executive compensation package was $43.2B. This capitalization milestone was tied to the aggregate production of 300,000 vehicles.
 
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