Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

Bottom BB support so far, let's see if it continues to hold against the selling pressure:

 

[BornToFly]

Model Y price cuts are probably because the new version is coming and they need to clear inventory without angering current buyers.

 

[Max Plaid]

Max Pain dropped to 212.50

 

[Jim Holder]

Burgandy line possible rejection area to sell into (look to the left, rejected there before):

 

[OptionsGrinder]

TSLA Rolling - does it work? Part 3

Compared to puts, calls take longer to OTM if rolled

if my 7DTE short call is breached, (for ex 2023-06-09 i have a 10% OTM bet -c235.36 but it closed at 244.39):

• if i roll with no strike improvement (assuming no early assignment), i can close it in 10 weeks; this means rolling to the same strike 10 times
• if i roll with 5-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 3 weeks (week 1 -c240.36, week 2 -c245.36, week 3 -c250.36); this means rolling 3 times and going up total 15
• if i roll with 10-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 1 week (week 1 -p245.36); this means rolling 1 time and going up total 10

if one is selling 10% or 12% OTM calls, any breached call will take at most 6 rolls before it goes OTM (5-strike improvement every week, total $30 improvement) ie move -c200 into -c205 into -c210 into -c215 into -c220 into -c225 into -c230

if one is selling 15% OTM calls, any breached call will take at most 2 rolls before it goes OTM (10-strike improvement every week, total $20 improvement) ie move -c200 into -c210 into -c220

if one is selling 8% OTM calls, there is a 15.82% chance that it will go ITM.

summary:

• rolled puts go OTM faster than rolled calls, especially if there is a 5- or 10- strike improvement every week
• assuming no early assignment, there is no "max loss" when rolling puts - 100% will eventually go OTM (since 2021)
• assuming no early assignment, "max loss" is possible when rolling calls
• "max loss" means you can roll up to today or for a long time, and it will still be ITM (might as well take the loss)
• translation: i should be more afraid of rolling calls than puts

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@Yoona thank you for this GREAT information. An additional consideration, probably difficult to model, is that in some cases by rolling ITM CC at 5 strike increments, you could gain some additional extrinsic premium value each week. For example you MIGHT be getting $2 or even $3 in premium each of those weeks, depending on how close you are to ITM, rather than $1 or less. The additional handful of premium dollars during the weeks you are rolling to OTM, can help you get to "break even" a little faster. Thanks again!

 

[BornToFly]

@Yoona thank you for this GREAT information. An additional consideration, probably difficult to model, is that in some cases by rolling ITM CC at 5 strike increments, you could gain some additional extrinsic premium value each week. For example you MIGHT be getting $2 or even $3 in premium each of those weeks, depending on how close you are to ITM, rather than $1 or less. The additional handful of premium dollars during the weeks you are rolling to OTM, can help you get to "break even" a little faster. Thanks again!

Aaah, no. If the Call is ITM, you are lucky to roll up $5/week without a debit.

 

[OptionsGrinder]

Aaah, no. If the Call is ITM, you are lucky to roll up $5/week without a debit.

I didn't say anything about debits (or credits).. only talking about the extrinsic premium value that you can extract while waiting for price to come into your new strike levels

 

[Yoona]

200 is lurking

 

[tivoboy]

Model Y price cuts are probably because the new version is coming and they need to clear inventory without angering current buyers.

I think it’s more about the fact that the ~ 5K German EV subsidy ended, and Tesla is trying to keep pricing relatively same for Germany and European buyers.

Tesla offered to cut price in Germany for half of December, AND give 1% loans to new buyers. Now, they just cut price, and carried much across Europe. They also lost the EV sales lead to VW, so this is trying to keep market share and sales. Germany is also just about AT recession (if not already), so throttling Berlin for a few weeks, and probably not pushing for more shifts will indicate more about overall market demand.

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA levels for today

1/19

1/26

 

[InTheMiddle]

Now on to more fun, STO 200x C225s for this Friday instead. If @dl003 gets his run up to $232, I'll still be very happy with seeing this particular block of shares get called away at $225.

BTC these for a $17k profit…not because I think they might suddenly be ITM, but rather so I can sell the underlying shares on any bounce. See everyone on the other side of earnings. GLHF!

 

[elasalle]

Sold 1/26 200 PUTS for $3+ ... wheel if exercised ...
went out a couple of weeks (~ 45 days) to sell some vertical calls with 290 short leg ...

 

[Jim Holder]

BTC overnight CC's at morning lows:

 

[BornToFly]

Sold more 230CC for Friday

 

[juanmedina]

200 is lurking
View attachment 1009723

No please no. I sold $205 and $202.5 puts again.

 

[Yoona]

in freefall times like these, this chart is my comfort level

i know that i can roll down with 10-strike improvement every week and a 30-wide spread will get credit and it will OTM within 2 weeks (based on backtesting to 2021)

not advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

[Max Plaid]

OK, thanks bears, on the dip BTC 100x 1/26 -c240 @$1.45 (net +$6.65) - $1.45 low of the day, so a good guesstimate for the limit sell there

Now looking to resell some of them to recuperate the $$15k, might just add another 20x -c220, let's see if they can hit $7.5...

 

[Jim Holder]

Held yesterday's lows so far.
QQQ lost the 50-day, everything is very heavy here, hope TSLA can hold up.

 

[dl003]

I wonder if the dump we had to $212 today so close to ER (5 days…) will suffice.

@dl003 has your recent EW count showing we might be done with down (Wave C) @ $232 and may start a skyrocketing new leg up been invalidated with the added dump from $232 to $212 or only strengthens it?

View attachment 1009612

We might be done with wave C. It now rests on ER.

 

[Jim Holder]

We might be done with wave C. It now rests on ER.

What's your gut feeling where TSLA's heading after ER?