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@Yoona thank you for this GREAT information. An additional consideration, probably difficult to model, is that in some cases by rolling ITM CC at 5 strike increments, you could gain some additional extrinsic premium value each week. For example you MIGHT be getting $2 or even $3 in premium each of those weeks, depending on how close you are to ITM, rather than $1 or less. The additional handful of premium dollars during the weeks you are rolling to OTM, can help you get to "break even" a little faster. Thanks again!TSLA Rolling - does it work? Part 3
Compared to puts, calls take longer to OTM if rolled
if my 7DTE short call is breached, (for ex 2023-06-09 i have a 10% OTM bet -c235.36 but it closed at 244.39):
if one is selling 10% or 12% OTM calls, any breached call will take at most 6 rolls before it goes OTM (5-strike improvement every week, total $30 improvement) ie move -c200 into -c205 into -c210 into -c215 into -c220 into -c225 into -c230
- if i roll with no strike improvement (assuming no early assignment), i can close it in 10 weeks; this means rolling to the same strike 10 times
- if i roll with 5-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 3 weeks (week 1 -c240.36, week 2 -c245.36, week 3 -c250.36); this means rolling 3 times and going up total 15
- if i roll with 10-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 1 week (week 1 -p245.36); this means rolling 1 time and going up total 10
if one is selling 15% OTM calls, any breached call will take at most 2 rolls before it goes OTM (10-strike improvement every week, total $20 improvement) ie move -c200 into -c210 into -c220
if one is selling 8% OTM calls, there is a 15.82% chance that it will go ITM.
summary:
- rolled puts go OTM faster than rolled calls, especially if there is a 5- or 10- strike improvement every week
- assuming no early assignment, there is no "max loss" when rolling puts - 100% will eventually go OTM (since 2021)
- assuming no early assignment, "max loss" is possible when rolling calls
- "max loss" means you can roll up to today or for a long time, and it will still be ITM (might as well take the loss)
- translation: i should be more afraid of rolling calls than puts
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Aaah, no. If the Call is ITM, you are lucky to roll up $5/week without a debit.@Yoona thank you for this GREAT information. An additional consideration, probably difficult to model, is that in some cases by rolling ITM CC at 5 strike increments, you could gain some additional extrinsic premium value each week. For example you MIGHT be getting $2 or even $3 in premium each of those weeks, depending on how close you are to ITM, rather than $1 or less. The additional handful of premium dollars during the weeks you are rolling to OTM, can help you get to "break even" a little faster. Thanks again!
I didn't say anything about debits (or credits).. only talking about the extrinsic premium value that you can extract while waiting for price to come into your new strike levelsAaah, no. If the Call is ITM, you are lucky to roll up $5/week without a debit.
I think it’s more about the fact that the ~ 5K German EV subsidy ended, and Tesla is trying to keep pricing relatively same for Germany and European buyers.Model Y price cuts are probably because the new version is coming and they need to clear inventory without angering current buyers.
BTC these for a $17k profit…not because I think they might suddenly be ITM, but rather so I can sell the underlying shares on any bounce. See everyone on the other side of earnings. GLHF!Now on to more fun, STO 200x C225s for this Friday instead. If @dl003 gets his run up to $232, I'll still be very happy with seeing this particular block of shares get called away at $225.
We might be done with wave C. It now rests on ER.I wonder if the dump we had to $212 today so close to ER (5 days…) will suffice.
@dl003 has your recent EW count showing we might be done with down (Wave C) @ $232 and may start a skyrocketing new leg up been invalidated with the added dump from $232 to $212 or only strengthens it?
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We might be done with wave C. It now rests on ER.