Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Singuy]

Why don't you review the hundreds of posts that dl003 has put in this thread over the last year.

It's people like you that come in here and make unsubstantiated challenges that turns valuable posters off.

Hey I am trying to use his crystal ball here to sell some calls. Not disrespecting in anyway and we interact in the other thread. Trying to figure out how to sell some calls with the tax event happening for 2024 cause I want my 2023 federal tax credit.

However there are 2 white swan events I believe can screw up a good thing.

1. Fsd licensing announcement

2. X became cash flow positive which cause Elon purchasing Tesla stock again.

 

[Jim Holder]

Hey I am trying to use his crystal ball here to sell some calls. Not disrespecting in anyway and we interact in the other thread. Trying to figure out how to sell some calls with the tax event happening for 2024 cause I want my 2023 federal tax credit.

It could be now is the perfect time with the markets in turmoil. Volatility is great for well-positioned and well-timed short calls.

Any specific lots or strikes you’re looking at?
Naked? Covered?

 

[traxila]

Once again, this thread seems to be haunted by short memory and arrogance against TA. I made a bet, at 160 in May, that I would leave this board if we would not see 250 in 2023.

Now Im going to make another bet:

If we dont see 200 in the rest of 2023, I will leave this forum and never come back.

Who want to take me up on this bet?

Please stay.

 

[ZenMan]

Hey I am trying to use his crystal ball here to sell some calls. Not disrespecting in anyway and we interact in the other thread. Trying to figure out how to sell some calls with the tax event happening for 2024 cause I want my 2023 federal tax credit.

So read the posts. There is a wealth of knowledge here. Especially over the last week regarding where the stock will be going over the next month.

If TSLA retraces upwards to $252 tomorrow it would be an opportune time to sell calls. Maybe it only is able to get to $250 but the consensus here is that the direction is Down. So selling calls should be safe.

 

[Singuy]

It could be now is the perfect time with the markets in turmoil. Volatility is great for well-positioned and well-timed short calls.

Any specific lots or strikes you’re looking at?
Naked? Covered?

Covered calls with strike price in the 270s for Jan 19th is what I am considering..I mean if we crash down to 200 and recover to 240s.

 

[Jim Holder]

So read the posts. There is a wealth of knowledge here. Especially over the last week regarding where the stock will be going over the next month.

If TSLA retraces upwards to $252 tomorrow it would be an opportune time to sell calls. Maybe it only is able to get to $250 but the consensus here is that the direction is Down. So selling calls should be safe.

That’s a fair assumption, just whatever you do make sure you have a plan B and a plan C in case things don’t go the way you thought, as one of the elders here reminded me recently.

 

[Jim Holder]

Covered calls with strike price in the 270s for Jan 19th is what I am considering..I mean if we crash down to 200 and recover to 240s.

I am not knowledgeable enough to opine about specific strikes, but as @Max Plaid said well last Friday, sell on high SP & IV, buy on low SP & IV, that's the magic formula.

Edit: At the risk of stating the obvious, it’s always wise to choose a strike that you are okay letting the shares go at.

 

[dl003]

So what I don't get is if you are hard-core TA chart reading, why bring fundamentals in?

Also have Tesla ever traded on current or even 1-2 years out cash flows?

What @Jim Holder said.
I dont deny the existence of black & white swans. FSD licensing, however, wont be a white swan. The FSD development trajectory otherwise should be visible on the chart.

Just for clarification: fundamentals are part of my reasoning. I just dont read news and commentaries.

 

[Singuy]

What @Jim Holder said.
I dont deny the existence of black & white swans. FSD licensing, however, wont be a white swan. The FSD development trajectory otherwise should be visible on the chart.

Just for clarification: fundamentals are part of my reasoning. I just dont read news and commentaries.

So these price targets are pretty much destined or can change on a dime day to day?

 

[Jim Holder]

So these price targets are pretty much destined or can change on a dime day to day?

Nothing is destined in the stock market, especially with a Beta stock like TSLA. But in this forum we try to peek around the corner with the aid of veteran guides so we can stay ahead of the game as much as possible.

 

[dl003]

So these price targets are pretty much destined or can change on a dime day to day?

PTs are like puzzle pieces. In the beginning there are going to be a few pieces you like for a spot but as the puzzle gets filled the options get narrowed down. Each option has its own probability and I try to only call out when one probability is so overwhelming compared to others.

 

[ZeApelido]

Once again, this thread seems to be haunted by short memory and arrogance against TA. I made a bet, at 160 in May, that I would leave this board if we would not see 250 in 2023.

Now Im going to make another bet:

If we dont see 200 in the rest of 2023, I will leave this forum and never come back.

Who want to take me up on this bet?

dl003 absolutely just mic dropped this thread

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Once again, this thread seems to be haunted by short memory and arrogance against TA. I made a bet, at 160 in May, that I would leave this board if we would not see 250 in 2023.

Now Im going to make another bet:

If we dont see 200 in the rest of 2023, I will leave this forum and never come back.

Who want to take me up on this bet?

Once again, thank you for your service and knowledge. I’m sure that you will remain an active member for years to come. Though I may not post much anymore, I will be watching from the sidelines. FWIW, I did sell another 12/25 +c100 LEAP today and an odd lot of shares, again based on your analysis.

You got my attention the last time, and you’ve got it again this time. I will be betting with you, even stronger than before. I’ve already shorted my shares with CCs, closed the BPS side of my ICs, sold shares, sold LEAPS, and bought puts. Now, given this smack down, I will probably roll the CCs down and sell more BCSs. I’m definitely not buying shares with my profits like I did in 2022, and will wait to buyback at a much lower SP. You have gained my respect and I will heed your posts (even if I have trouble understanding everything).

 

[Jim Holder]

Once again, thank you for your service and knowledge. I’m sure that you will remain an active member for years to come. Though I may not post much anymore, I will be watching from the sidelines. FWIW, I did sell another 12/25 +c100 LEAP today and an odd lot of shares, again based on your analysis.

You got my attention the last time, and you’ve got it again this time. I will be betting with you, even stronger than before. I’ve already shorted my shares with CCs, closed the BPS side of my ICs, sold shares, sold LEAPS, and bought puts. Now, given this smack down, I will probably roll the CCs down and sell more BCSs. I’m definitely not buying shares with my profits like I did in 2022, and will wait to buyback at a much lower SP. You have gained my respect and I will heed your posts (even if I have trouble understanding everything).

Well put! (No pun intended)

Just a question about the LEAP you sold, can you share what DTE/strike and help me understand the benefit of selling a LEAP short call vs. say 10/20 and selling again then. Is it because on 10/20 we may be in the 220’s for example and so won’t get as much premium selling again down there?

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Well put! (No pun intended)

Just a question about the LEAP you sold, can you share what DTE/strike and help me understand the benefit of selling a LEAP short call vs. say 10/20 and selling again then. Is it because on 10/20 we may be in the 220’s for example and so won’t get as much premium selling again down there?

The LEAP was 12/2025 +c100 that I bought several months ago, probably back when the SP was in the 150-180 range. It’s a small account, that I’ve been slowly converting to a ROTH, so there’s not much left in the account. This was originally bought as share replacement, and I was planning to hold for quite a long time, probably into 2025. Selling today netted a tidy profit, but I don’t know how much without logging into my brokerage. The account is now all cash and a handful of +p220s. If the SP continues down, I will rebuy a +c100 Jan2026 for less than I sold the 12/2025 +c100 (at least that’s the plan, and I’ve already put in the buy order). If the order doesn’t hit, well at least the account is cash and then I can decide to do something else in a few months.

 

[Singuy]

PTs are like puzzle pieces. In the beginning there are going to be a few pieces you like for a spot but as the puzzle gets filled the options get narrowed down. Each option has its own probability and I try to only call out when one probability is so overwhelming compared to others.

Can you comment on the TA of the 10yr? Seems like that thing is going parabolic, reports saying it's people shorting the bond. Eventually they will cover crashing the 10year rates right?

 

[Max Plaid]

Why don't you review the hundreds of posts that dl003 has put in this thread over the last year.

It's people like you that come in here and make unsubstantiated challenges that turns valuable posters off.

Come on now, please be civil. @Singuy is a long term member of this community who provides a lot of useful insight on the "other" thread, especially in the area of chip manufacturing

Everyone has the right to put forward their opinion, macro, fundamentals, Musk, FUD, TA, news, swans, all goes into the mixing-pot when trying to determine TSLA price movements

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Once again, this thread seems to be haunted by short memory and arrogance against TA. I made a bet, at 160 in May, that I would leave this board if we would not see 250 in 2023.

Now Im going to make another bet:

If we dont see 200 in the rest of 2023, I will leave this forum and never come back.

Who want to take me up on this bet?

Agree on trajectory fully (as I called a 189 bottom) Disagree on you ever leaving this forumthread over being wrong. Either way, I believe you must stay. something very special must happen is we don’t see you staying because of sub $200 SP.

 

[intelligator]

g'morning , how about we get back on track ...

M-P lowered to 247.5, put call ratio swinging back to calls at .9 , common interest at 245, 247.5, 260 (tallest call wall). Pull out from -p270 and -p240 (tallest put wall). Make what you want of it , just sharing another datapoint you may or may not want to consider in your overall strategy.

 

[Jim Holder]

@dl003 so today seems to be setting up to be the day to scare shorts out of their puts and short positions. Are we still on schedule to test low $250’s today and elevator down toward $230 and lower later today/tomorrow with selling intensifying?