I believe we've all been saying this since Austin and Berlin opened.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I'm still selling puts, but only against 35% of my long puts...
But yeah, look what happened last year starting around now, those puts went deep and deeper ITM, got rolled forever then assigned in December in the 100's
So now, I'll sell 70x -pATM weekly, but have 150x unassigned for capturing downside and/or facilitating a roll - in fact the way I imagine it is to sell 70x, the go ITM, I'll roll them out three weeks, then sell 70x more for the coming expiry, rinse-repeat if necessary and still have another 70x to write weekly
And I'll straddle 70x calls with these to double-up the premium until it reverses
The fsd news that will F up all the TA here is a major OEM licensing the tech. Didn't deutsche bank received notes from Tesla that there are interests and working out the kinks of the contracts?
I honestly don’t think any of that would be material in any way for several years. Somewhere over 2 and less than 7. It’s too much of a long tail for another OEM to implement in any way to adjust revenues and earnings in 23/24 and probably /25
I agree that it won’t be material to numbers for another 3-5 years but this stock moves like crazy on absolutely nothing burger news like Ford and GM announcing they are going to get access to Tesla super charge network…doesn’t contribute anything to Tesla numbers but the stock went from 185 to 220 on Ford news and then 220 to 240 on GM news. Most people buying / selling this stock have no idea about whether these things contribute anything to Tesla numbers.
Agree. Looked at most of the analyst comments so far since yesterday morning…the general sense commentary is that Q3 will be bad but this is the bottom for margins and Q4 should be great. This is what they are all saying as of now…if this continues, then the market is looking ahead to a better Q4 than worrying about bad Q3 results. But this could all change once they see Q3 results and how far off from their expectations. However, broader market is going down on higher US10Y yields, so if that continues, Tesla should go down as well even without any analysts downgrading it.
Video of TSLA vs QQQ trading correlation today:
I honestly think it's coming way sooner than you think. Tesla lane keep and AEB cannot be matched even based on tests from the government. No one said OEMs will license FSD beta. They are already paying mobile eye and Nvidia for inferior performance. They can allow Tesla to continue to score near perfect scores during NCAP tests or start transitioning to the Tesla ecosystem.
As FSD gets better and I argue it's already pretty damn good now, customers will want a car that can semi self drive in which legacy auto is nowhere close. It can be a defining feature that begin to sway customers one way or another like Tesla charging.
Would have said the same for NACS adoption, but look what that did for the stock - and FSD licensing would be an order of magnitude bigger both in terms of financials, but also the amount of Tesla hardware and IP getting into other manufacturers...
Anyway, not the right thread for a long-winded discussion, but I agree it's a white swan that could add $100 the stock price in a week
Tesla stock went parabolic after hertz said they will buy 100k cars which is less material than Tesla charging taking over the US. And what was so material about the first stock split and s&p inclusion?
This is what happens when options dictates Tesla's movement which amplifies gains and losses due to people covering on both side.
While the Hertz news did spark an upward move in late October 2021, 2020 and 2021 were the golden days when Tesla was delivering stellar results every quarter post pandemic at every single metric and gross margins were at or nearing 30%, and Elon wasn't doing anything politically upsetting a section of people. While the first stock split did have a massive surge in price, that's more of a 2020 dynamic...similar thing happened for Apple stock split at that time, but nothing happened for the second Tesla stock split. S&P 500 is definitely material in terms of the forced buying of Tesla stock by hundreds of funds bringing in Billions of dollars pouring in to the stock - I made the most out of that move. However, this whole NACS thing doesn't contribute anything material to Tesla now, and won't be significant even in the near future, but it still moved the stock from the 180s to the 240s - that's a 33% move on news that doesn't contribute anything to Tesla's revenues or profits.
Guess you forgot about China covid shut down risk and chip shortages. There are always bear and bull thesis to explain the stock price.
Are we looking at the same chart? The Hertz announcements was essentially just before the top of Tesla all time highs (within a few days if not a week), and it's been down from there, first down 75%, now down only 40%?. That would have been somewhat material, adding nearly 10% to overall sales at the time, certainly domestically.
As others have said, wrong thread. It's already getting polluted.
Short term the hertz deal lead Tesla to a parabolic run even Elon was questioning wtf was going on, added hundreds of billions in valuation. His stock sale for tax poll on Twitter marked the peak of the run.
I thought we were talking about short term white swan events and not long term fundamentals.
It led to a ~20% intra period move, that within 10 days was GONE, trust me, I sold at the top
Welcome to the options thread
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I think you sold during the double top if I remember correctly, not the first top. Unless you went in for another round.
As I look at the two major trendlines from the last two years, I really wonder if we just go sideways from here into earnings before we breakout or break down. It's setting up perfectly, as these things somehow seem to do.
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