Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

As I look at the two major trendlines from the last two years, I really wonder if we just go sideways from here into earnings before we breakout or break down. It's setting up perfectly, as these things somehow seem to do.

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Just an opinion, but isn't any kind of TA that includes 2022 ... polluted? I'd just as soon rule out any data analysis using 2022, because of general macro sentiments. Or is that just the nature of TA, that it can successfully ignore black/white swan events?

 

[dl003]

Tesla stock went parabolic after hertz said they will buy 100k cars which is less material than Tesla charging taking over the US. And what was so material about the first stock split and s&p inclusion?

This is what happens when options dictates Tesla's movement which amplifies gains and losses due to people covering on both side.

Wrong. Already on Friday after that Q ER, TSLA was making a new ATH at 910 with massive call inflow. It was going to rip regadless of Hertz. I saw it coming even before that ER. Please spare me the Hertz f your TA bs.

Also, my interpretation:

Today move is a reflection of a market-wide change. Might not all be about TSLA. Below are my rationales:

1. LEAP call IVs didn't budge last week during the $65 run but they all go crazy today. Purely an ER FOMO run-up? I doubt it.
2. Stocks beaten up due to supply chain issues and chip shortage are all leading the market today. Looks like big buyers who have their finger on the global supply chain know something is improving.

In my opinion, a long-term trendline reflects the market perception about the long term growth of a company. Conveniently, we broke below the red trendline in May amid a global chip shortage, supply chain disruptions, and China dramas. Now that all of those things are almost in the rearview mirror, is it too crazy to expect TSLA to resume its previous trajectory which was more bullish than the current? My takeaways:

a. Today run-up is simply a product of delta hedging as well as big purchases intended to get TSLA up to the old trendline.
b. We're unlikely to run up much further from here until the ER confirms healthy gross margin.
c. I doubt we will end the week below 860 if ER is a beat.
d. We will continue to climb in the weeks ahead. My target for January is $1k.

In other words: that final rally was predicted ahead of time, by me, looking at the chart and option flow. Hertz was not a white swan.

Right now theres no such rip that can be seen on the chart so ease up on your bull.

 

[dl003]

Just an opinion, but isn't any kind of TA that includes 2022 ... polluted? I'd just as soon rule out any data analysis using 2022, because of general macro sentiments. Or is that just the nature of TA, that it can successfully ignore black/white swan events?

2022 was not entirely a black swan. I predicted 180 from 315. None of the Fed hikes or even Russia invading Ukraine was a black swan. Elon's selling was a black swan that broke the camel's back.

 

[dl003]

Once again, this thread seems to be haunted by short memory and arrogance against TA. I made a bet, at 160 in May, that I would leave this board if we would not see 250 in 2023.

There a a lot of different TA tools and not all of them work on the basis which presumes participants believe in it. Stuff like 3m / 5m / 15m EMAs are in that camp. But I don't give you those, do I? I deal in higher timeframe psychology which allows me to make calls most people dare not to make. There being so many ways to read the chart is not an issue with TA just like there being so many ways to make an EV didn't make it an issue for Musk.

Remember in October 2021 when everyone was afraid we would crash after ER and I predicted we would climb for weeks and be at 1000 in January? Whats the major news that came out on October 18? Cricket.


Did Rob tell you this? No I did but nobody listened.

Called the bottom on December 30th

Had to convince you guys that we will go down to 160 back when "the fundamentals were so strong TSLA should be worth much higher."

Now that I've called 152.3 to be the bottom and we will see 250, still nobody is listening. Now that everyone apparently seems to be discouraged and bearish, I'm gonna make a bet.

If we don't see 250 in 2023, I'll leave this forum and never come back.

Now Im going to make another bet:

If we dont see 200 in the rest of 2023, I will leave this forum and never come back.

Who want to take me up on this bet?

 

[Jim Holder]

Game plan for tomorrow: If TSLA doesn’t fall through the hatch in pre-market then I’m looking for it to attempt $251 and sell off. If it hits anywhere in the low $250’s then I plan to sell my long shares and long calls again and possibly sell some -C260 10/20 short calls too. Broader plan is to buy them back at each main support down below in case it bottoms earlier than expected.

 

[Jim Holder]

If we dont see 200 in the rest of 2023, I will leave this forum and never come back.

Who want to take me up on this bet?

Not me!! You are very important around here! I would not like to see you leave for any reason.

May I propose instead of threatening to leave, that it be satisfaction enough that you are correct again. Your skills at reading TSLA is superb and you have an amazing track record to be proud of.

 

[Jim Holder]

Once again, this thread seems to be haunted by short memory and arrogance against TA.

Majority here respects TA, ergo the majority wins and you stay regardless

 

[Singuy]

Wrong. Already on Friday after that Q ER, TSLA was making a new ATH at 910 with massive call inflow. It was going to rip regadless of Hertz. I saw it coming even before that ER. Please spare me the Hertz f your TA bs.

In other words: that final rally was predicted ahead of time, by me, looking at the chart and option flow. Hertz was not a white swan.

Right now theres no such rip that can be seen on the chart so ease up on your bull.

Pretty sure I didn't say hertz f up TA, I said fsd licensing can. Hertz was more fuel adding to the parabolic move that was happening already. It was a response to "how come things that doesn't seem material move stocks?". It was just an example I used.

Anyways, I am pretty convinced that TA works. Just commenting at potential risk as we were talking about future white swan events.

 

[khill]

Wrong. Already on Friday after that Q ER, TSLA was making a new ATH at 910 with massive call inflow. It was going to rip regadless of Hertz. I saw it coming even before that ER. Please spare me the Hertz f your TA bs.

In other words: that final rally was predicted ahead of time, by me, looking at the chart and option flow. Hertz was not a white swan.

Right now theres no such rip that can be seen on the chart so ease up on your bull.

I agree with you. Q3’21 results were spectacular and things were looking super good for Tesla Q4’21 so the stock would have gone up anyway. It’s just that the Hertz news coincided after a blowout ER from Tesla.

 

[juanmedina]

Once again, this thread seems to be haunted by short memory and arrogance against TA. I made a bet, at 160 in May, that I would leave this board if we would not see 250 in 2023.

Now Im going to make another bet:

If we dont see 200 in the rest of 2023, I will leave this forum and never come back.

Who want to take me up on this bet?

I don't want to see $200 . What is your end of the year SP target?

 

[dl003]

I don't want to see $200 . What is your end of the year SP target?

around 240 but thats for later.

 

[dl003]

Not me!! You are very important around here! I would not like to see you leave for any reason.

May I propose instead of threatening to leave, that it be satisfaction enough that you are correct again. Your skills at reading TSLA is superb and you have an amazing track record to be proud of.

I dont wanna be important, nor do I try to be. Just a guy pursuing ways to connect the dots and sharing it. Im naturally a pacifist and having to make my points is really tiring for me so Im only active in a few like minded groups. This forum is for long term holders, which I am, but for what Im doing daily, maybe its not the right place. Maybe Im wrong this time, who know, but lets have a blast!

 

[ZenMan]

I dont wanna be important, nor do I try to be. Just a guy pursuing ways to connect the dots and sharing it. Im naturally a pacifist and having to make my points is really tiring for me so Im only active in a few like minded group. This forum is for long term holders, which I am, but for what Im doing daily, maybe its not the right place.

I very much appreciate the information you provide to this thread. I would not want you to change your posting frequency or to stop posting your interpretation of the daily activity.

I have found it to be invaluable.

 

[Jim Holder]

This forum is for long term holders, which I am, but for what Im doing daily, maybe its not the right place.

If you scroll back even just the last 10 pages, the majority of active users here are short-term traders seeking to share and learn from our collective knowledge to help ourselves and each other draw some profit off the pirates while holding long term. This is definitely the right place!

 

[dl003]

Pretty sure I didn't say hertz f up TA, I said fsd licensing can. Hertz was more fuel adding to the parabolic move that was happening already. It was a response to "how come things that doesn't seem material move stocks?". It was just an example I used.

Anyways, I am pretty convinced that TA works. Just commenting at potential risk as we were talking about future white swan events.

FSD licensing wont. A white swan has to be extremely extraordinary to the point that almost nobody expects it. For FSD licensing to have any real impact, first we need to have FSD working at lvl 5 autonomy with regulatory approval. FSD wont get to lvl 5 overnight. There have been and will continue to be so many frequent step changes to the software that it will almost be impossible to catch anyone by surprise. The stock might perform better over a long period of time as these positive changes are reported in the media. By the time FSD becomes lvl 5, it will already be old news as a lot of the SP gain will have materialized. By then, licensing will be just a natural step forward.

Right now, FSD licensing, if any OEM is crazy enough to go forward with it, is just going to be a pump and dump scheme. The software doesnt work yet. The cars have to be designed the Tesla way, meaning years and years of redesigns and a crap ton of investment for them. The money, just like NACS adoption, will take years to come in.

 

[Singuy]

FSD licensing wont. A white swan has to be extremely extraordinary to the point that almost nobody expects it. For FSD licensing to have any real impact, first we need to have FSD working at lvl 5 autonomy with regulatory approval. FSD wont get to lvl 5 overnight. There have been and will continue to be so many frequent step changes to the software that it will almost be impossible to catch anyone by surprise. The stock might perform better over a long period of time as these positive changes are reported in the media. By the time FSD becomes lvl 5, it will already be old news as a lot of the SP gain will have materialized. By then, licensing will be just a natural step forward.

Right now, FSD licensing, if any OEM is crazy enough to go forward with it, is just going to be a pump and dump scheme. The software doesnt work yet. The cars have to be designed the Tesla way, meaning years and years of redesigns and a crap ton of investment for them. The money, just like NACS adoption, will take years to come in.

So what I don't get is if you are hard-core TA chart reading, why bring fundamentals in?

Also have Tesla ever traded on current or even 1-2 years out cash flows?

 

[Jim Holder]

So what I don't get is if you are hard-core TA chart reading, why bring fundamentals in?

I don’t think he is the one bringing in fundamentals, he was responding to previous comments that raised the specter of FSD licensing being a possible White Swan.

Anyway, it would be good if we could get the chat back on track to discussing selling TSLA options, which is the title of this channel :- )

 

[ZenMan]

So what I don't get is if you are hard-core TA chart reading, why bring fundamentals in?

Also have Tesla ever traded on current or even 1-2 years out cash flows?

Why don't you review the hundreds of posts that dl003 has put in this thread over the last year.

It's people like you that come in here and make unsubstantiated challenges that turns valuable posters off.

 

[Jim Holder]

Why don't you review the hundreds of posts that dl003 has put in this thread over the last year.

It's people like you that come in here and make unsubstantiated challenges that turns valuable posters off.

Let’s get back to discussing selling options and being a step ahead of the Pirates.

 

[Singuy]

I don’t think he is the one bringing in fundamentals, he was responding to previous comments that raised the specter of FSD licensing being a possible White Swan.

Anyway, it would be good if we could get the chat back on track to discussing options.

Imo if OEM license, then it's a switch of narrative from Tesla FSD being a laughing stock to oh it can actually generate cash flow beyond Elon's snake oil selling to gullible Tesla cults.

And like I said, Legacy are already paying to be on unreliable lane keep and AEB software that is proven to be unsafe. So they were already "crazy" enough to put their brand name on software that runs over mannequins over and over during objective tests from the government.

So it's not ridiculous to see how they want a safer and more reliable L2. My friends Volvo literally cannot lane keep for more than a few minutes before running him off the road. It's almost irresponsible not to use Tesla at this point.