I'd only short the bounces. Unless it penetrates the lower trendline support here and stay down for a couple of days.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Just checked and I made a mistake by skewing graphs. There are only a few days Russel (going up) outpaced S&P, too little to call it a trend, so have to admit I was wrong on the Russel call.
BTW I went all in on shares again, expecting to (if it would be a DCB) to have a bit of time to catch a profit on closing out. (In Holland collecting Gains on options and shares privately are free of taxes, only the value EOY counts for capital tax.)
That's so civilised compared to Belgium, we get taxed on every transaction and losses on shares are not deductible, plus hefty broker fees on share transactions and a government tax on shares buy/sells - so it's actually much better to trade options, which is crazy
Anyway, that's a bit of a shitshow out there today... I rolled down 20x 9/29 -c250 to 40x -c240, annoyingly my sell order for $6.2 was missed by 20c during the last visit to the high 242's at 11:35EST, in the end I settled for a measly $2.7 when the stock scraped its way back above 236, still, likely all profit, so better than a poke in the eye
-p240's looking a bit sorry for themselves, but have a free roll down to -p230 for next week at this moment, but will wait until Friday at there's loads of extrinsic ($2.5) with the IV being fairly high
Expecting 4x -p270 to be assigned tonight, I hope so as 4x of the -c240's are naked right now
+1 Being highly self actualized doth a great trader make! ;-)
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Now, adding up all knowledge over here , I come to the following thesis. 234 and a bit was (again) an intermediate bottom just above the projected level. Now we will rise into Friday’s close possibly around 250 or 255, (PCE coming in hot). Then weekend comes without any news from Tesla except for disappointing P&D. Starting Monday we really start to crash down to 212 in a few days, back up to 225-230, then 180-185 to complete the move…. (Gut feeling, nothing EW or TA). Who can enlighten us more precise. (This is me thinking aloud and not any kind of investment advise)
All's well that ends well (for today at least):
QTA ranges today vs actual market
QTA ranges today vs actual market
I think Tesla will announce CyberTruck delivery event this weekend to try and blunt the effects of P&D miss.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Tesla the company nor Elon never do anything intentionally to let the stockprice move at a certain moment. Their moves on the other hand will move the stock without intent. Stockprice is never a motivation to execute or not execute things on the business-side (which in many cases would be illegal also)
In the new Musk biography, which I just finished reading, there was mention of a scramble to announce something before end of quarter to boost the company’s valuation, which became “AI day” if I’m recalling correctly. This is neither illegal nor uncommon.
Video of Tesla TSLA vs Nasdaq 100 $QQQ today:
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Ai day was rescheduled from beginning of August to sept 30th 2022. So same quarter. Curious about the passages in the book!
We did break 238 today. Do you mean a close below 238 or does an intra day break count?
Y'all still tracking events hoping for miracles? 
One of my favourite tools to predict the future is fractals. Fractals are intricate (complex) setups on the chart that repeat themselves. This can happen on the same timeframe / wave degree or it can happen on different time frames / wave degrees. At first it gives you a vague deja vu feeling, but then the pieces keep falling into place and so for the next days or weeks you seem to be able to see the future, until the current setup starts deviating from the old one.
Right now, the current correction in TSLA is tracking the 217-152 correction earlier this year super closely. Eerie. So that's going to be my basis for levels and forecasts until it turns out to be grade A voodoo.
217-152 corrected the first leg up from 102 to 217. This time 298 - 185 is going to correct the entire 102-298 rally. Look at the 2 side by side, starting with the first leg down in yellow and how they both ended at anchored vwap running from 102
Then look at the big dead cat that came after. 1st spike. small consolidation. Break out. Big consolidation. Break out. Blow off top. Flush.
The 217-152 correction ended at the lower band of AVWAP. This time I'm betting it's going to do the same thing at 185-190.
251 is where short positions can be considered. 256 if mr. market is generous.
One of my favourite tools to predict the future is fractals. Fractals are intricate (complex) setups on the chart that repeat themselves. This can happen on the same timeframe / wave degree or it can happen on different time frames / wave degrees. At first it gives you a vague deja vu feeling, but then the pieces keep falling into place and so for the next days or weeks you seem to be able to see the future, until the current setup starts deviating from the old one.
Right now, the current correction in TSLA is tracking the 217-152 correction earlier this year super closely. Eerie. So that's going to be my basis for levels and forecasts until it turns out to be grade A voodoo.
217-152 corrected the first leg up from 102 to 217. This time 298 - 185 is going to correct the entire 102-298 rally. Look at the 2 side by side, starting with the first leg down in yellow and how they both ended at anchored vwap running from 102
Then look at the big dead cat that came after. 1st spike. small consolidation. Break out. Big consolidation. Break out. Blow off top. Flush.
The 217-152 correction ended at the lower band of AVWAP. This time I'm betting it's going to do the same thing at 185-190.
251 is where short positions can be considered. 256 if mr. market is generous.
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You had me at fractalY'all still tracking events hoping for miracles?
One of my favourite tools to predict the future is fractals. Fractals are intricate (complex) setups on the chart that repeat themselves. This can happen on the same timeframe / wave degree or it can happen on different time frames / wave degrees. At first it gives you a vague deja vu feeling, but then the pieces keep falling into place and so for the next days or weeks you seem to be able to see the future, until the current setup starts deviating from the old one.
Right now, the current correction in TSLA is tracking the 217-152 correction earlier this year super closely. Eerie. So that's going to be my basis for levels and forecasts until it turns out to be grade A voodoo.
217-152 corrected the first leg up from 102 to 217. This time 298 - 185 is going to correct the entire 102-298 rally. Look at the 2 side by side, starting with the first leg down in yellow and how they both ended at anchored vwap running from 102
The 217-152 correction ended at the lower band of AVWAP. This time I'm betting it's going to do the same thing at 185-190.
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