I sold what I consider risky $232.5cc's for $1.02 for next week, only a few of them. I closed March 03, $250cc's that I sold for $4 at $1.65-1.7 early in the morning. I will sell some more next week.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
One way to tell the primary trend from the correction is looking at the size of the candles. We can see that on the way down, the candles were much longer than on the bounce. Can also see a clear 5 wave structure on the way down vs just a zig-zaggy pattern on the bounce. The primary trend is down so we're just bouncing. Also look at the red shaded area. There are no gaps. It means we haven't seen wave C down yet. Wave C will leave gaps that won't get filled until the primary trend (down) has run out of steam. Why do we have to have 3 waves down? Because the bigger trend is still up and this move down from 218 is just a correction of that bigger trend. A correction should not take the form of a 5 wave impulse structure like the one in red shaded area. This is just the first leg.
Levels given in advance: 197 and 208.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
That 208 seems to be holding true - SP is bumping against 208 for last 8 minutes.
ps : Just now went past 208 ... closed at 208.34.
Interesting day... given yesterday's dump and all the RATE FEAR generated, TSLA has been, to coin a phrase, B.A.F.
Have to admit that I didn't realise markets were closed Monday, changes the dynamic. Was looking for selling -c230's for next week, but premiums were dismal, so the shorter week convinced me to stick with -c215's, sold 15x @$3.1, of course the SP ripped even more after that, so it goes! Closed out this week's 15x -c215's for 2c each, just in case
Honestly, if I were a short, gay bear, I'd be very stressed right now - all week has been concerted effort to derail the rally, and given all at the assists, has not been convincing at all
Have been quite busy today, meetings at work, building my home gym, walking the dogs... so missed the low and the chance to offload the 3/17 -c300's for 50%, yes I had a sell in place, for 55c, the low was 63c - roll the bones... been chasing around a sell order, but was just out of reach... next week... maybe...
Have to admit that I didn't realise markets were closed Monday, changes the dynamic. Was looking for selling -c230's for next week, but premiums were dismal, so the shorter week convinced me to stick with -c215's, sold 15x @$3.1, of course the SP ripped even more after that, so it goes! Closed out this week's 15x -c215's for 2c each, just in case
Honestly, if I were a short, gay bear, I'd be very stressed right now - all week has been concerted effort to derail the rally, and given all at the assists, has not been convincing at all
Have been quite busy today, meetings at work, building my home gym, walking the dogs... so missed the low and the chance to offload the 3/17 -c300's for 50%, yes I had a sell in place, for 55c, the low was 63c - roll the bones... been chasing around a sell order, but was just out of reach... next week... maybe...
today is monthly OPEX. I'm seeing weird stuff all over. SPY didn't fill the opening gap, indicating further downside ahead, but it closed at HOD.
Let's see what happens next week.
Yeh, crazy day!
I ended up selling 7x -CC 215 strike for 2/24/23 for $4.35/ea right before close. This is against an equal amount of trapped shares I have from Thursday @ $215 CB, so they can take it next Friday if it hits (nets $219 and change).
While it would be nice, I don’t see us zooming past $220 next week, be lucky to hold $200.
As @dl003 said, let’s see what next week brings to the circus ;-)
EVNow
Well-Known Member
With ER related $185 calls still, I sure hope we don't hold $200
I’m not, especially after the recovery today and earlier this week. Under 200 is a steal even though recently being at 100 makes it seem like it’s not. Still feels to me like a melt up into investor day - at which point I would fear a sell the news.
I sure miss @Yoona. So, +/-20% is $166-$250 for next Friday. +/-30% is something crazy like $145-$275. We’ve only seen a few spikes outside the 20% range, so maybe a good trading limit. I’m looking at 180/190-240/250 ICs for next week, inside the range but biased high because of the recent trend. I already have the 180/190 BPS rolled from last week and will pair the 240/250 BCS on Tuesday, hopefully at an AM spike. I need to learn how to locate IV spikes, instead of just SP spikes, because that seems to be when options prices are higher. Looking out at monthlies open interest, it sure looks like $200 will be a significant tractor beam. I could definitely use that for awhile, so it probably won’t happen.
Unfortunately, because of my DITM CCs, I think the SP will continue to slowly melt up, and $250 in early March is more likely. Was assigned one 150c last night, so that’s done. Didn’t have the ability to roll or the cash to buyback, so just let them go. Still deciding whether to buy stock, LEAPS, or sell a put (so far below SP that the premium is probably not worth it). Maybe just roll the entire account into my ROTH and be done with it (could definitely use the cash to buyback CCs in that account). Decisions.
No more graphs or TA from me, because others seem to do a better job. Sorry to sound so dejected this week, just disappointed by getting caught with so many CCs before the earnings run. I’ve still got a load of 150s and 155s that are nearly unmanageable (can only roll for pennies at the same strike). I even contemplated rolling down to a $100 strike for Friday, just to generate cash, clear out all my CCs, and start fresh.
Have you looked at rolling out 4-6 months to ~ATM? For example, on 2Feb ($188 close), I rolled 3Feb$160 to 21Jul$200 for a $1.61 debit and $40 gain upon assignment. Will keep doing it in either direction whenever it makes sense.
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If it helps, I'll share what I did. When my 130CC's started getting ITM back in Jan, I rolled them into the next week. And when it looked like a bull run, I rolled all, but one, out to April 185cc and left them there while I dealt with the one underwater CC (by turning it into a straddle - ITM put, OTM call). Made very little income for the next few weeks as I "fixed" one CC at a time. On Friday, when it looked like MM's was going to keep TSLA around 200, I rolled the Apr 185cc (except for 2) to Sep '24 290cc.
If the SP is at a "high" (gambling here), I would split off a weekly cc (see example 1 below) AND close an OTM csp at the same time. During an MMD, I'd flip the OTM cc into a csp. I'd repeat this until I could close the weekly options for at least an 80% profit.
So my strategy is to buy time to prevent an early exercise, and then use straddles to fix those ITM cc's, one at a time. My income is severely limited during this time though.
Example 1 (fixing a little at a time):
have:
27x Apr -185c
roll 26x Apr -185c --> 26x 09/24 290c
BTC 1x Apr -185c --> STO 1x Apr -190c + STO 1x 02/24/2023 -200p
If/when 02/24/2023 -200p is 90% profit, BTC. OR (example 2 - fixing a little at a time, but with a spare CC):
BTC 1x Apr -190c + BTC 1x 02/24/2023 -200p --> STO 1x Apr -195c + STO 1x 02/24/2023 -220cc
After a few weeks, the Apr CC should be high enough that I can just flip it for a weekly ITM put. Once that put is closed, then pull down the next CC and repeat.
I'm working with the assumption (despite what TA shows) that TSLA isn't going back to the 100's (or won't stay there for long). So there's a pretty significant risk with this method.
I noticed a lot more talk about advanced options strategies lately. Remember many people made tons of money in 2021 with spreads and IC's to later get wrecked and with someone people completely losing their accounts. Be careful out there.
gabeincal
Active Member
Yep! I also remember when we collectively found BPS’s.. That had an ugly end also. Be careful out there…
Don’t forget we got a survivorship bias here.The people still posting in this thread got wiped out 80% at some point however they kept their lives, on the contrary to others. RIP Peter. Spreads must be used only with 1% of the portfolio. Like Option Alpha reached us. Never have more than 5% of your portfolio involved at any point with spreads. The point is to have as many trades possible to have 70% success in trades and be a successful option trader in the long run. Having 100% of a portfolio margin tied in option will backfire at some point because of a blackswan event, war, pandemic, change of CEO, FUD, etc…
I too tried bull put spreads through September and October 2021, the first was not good (thanks to the Evergrande mess that freaked everyone out back then), but every one after that made great profits. Luckily I realised the risk was just too much and stopped with them before Elon's Twitter tax poll. As it was, selling CSP's was painful enough... I won't be trying them again, no margin, little to no leverage, thank you...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
The learning for me is to stick to the plan - not to sell options around ER or delivery reports. I broke it this time when I saw so many selling options ... bad idea. Hope I don't have to pay dearly for that .... and @dl003 is correct and the SP comes down at least once before going up again.
ps : I had not sold options around ER/delivery for 3 years when I wasn't following this thread closely! Ofcourse, I made other mistakes and caught out a couple of times ...
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gabeincal
Active Member
I’m not familiar with Peter’s story! If possible, could you share? Either here or privately. Thank you…
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