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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Yes but in the example provided by @dl003 he is adding a leg (I did too) with a $195P bringing the total cost to almost zero or a even a credit.
But you get the idea!
Max profit is above $225 and below $240.
You should be able to model this with the option probability calculator to give you information as to payout vs. day vs. underlying
SebastienBonny
Member
Forgot to cancel my BTC order of .22 for 225CC (wanted to do that few days ago), now it executed.
Wanted to let it run, but no real harm done of course.
Will now look for a rise tomorrow to sell at a better strike for next week.
Wanted to let it run, but no real harm done of course.
Will now look for a rise tomorrow to sell at a better strike for next week.
SebastienBonny
Member
Did he cause the NASDAQ to nosedive as well?
SebastienBonny
Member
Ok, probably FED Bullard voting for .50 Last meeting news that came out then?
What a sell-off!
My poor 205 CSP’s expiring tomorrow, looks like I’m swallowing 500 shares @ 205 if we don’t bounce.
I hope our bull channel isn’t broken now for rebound.
My poor 205 CSP’s expiring tomorrow, looks like I’m swallowing 500 shares @ 205 if we don’t bounce.
I hope our bull channel isn’t broken now for rebound.
What a sell-off!
My poor 205 CSP’s expiring tomorrow, looks like I’m swallowing 500 shares @ 205 if we don’t bounce.
I hope our bull channel isn’t broken now for rebound.
We were going to have this aggressive sell off eventually. I see strong support at 200. I think we could sell off even more aggressively if that support is broken tomorrow. I fully expect us to gap down in the morning anyway. If I were you I would have probably rolled those in the last hour. Unless you are comfortable getting assigned.
VIX is also spiking. I'm looking across my watchlist and seeing some ugly charts. As per my previous post today once we broke 208/209 support I bought a bunch of 200$ puts expiring tomorrow.
Good for you buying puts! I have some covered calls that are in profit that could cover some of my other exposures.
I didn’t think to close my CSP’s because I was certain 210, 208, 206 etc were decent supports to bounce off
I could absorb the 500 shares at 205, just not sure how long I will have to babysit them. If we are going to 190 I would of course rather pick them up there.
The combination of record labor market tightness and the latest CPI and PPI are not good at all. The equity market wanted to ignore them but the bond market did not agree and the Ten Year is suddenly above 3.8 and headed to 4. My guess is a FED rate of 6% probably needs to be discounted. 50 basis points for next meeting is on the table and if the data until then repeats what we just saw, I would guess fifty it would be, although they would far prefer at this point to simply continue with 25 indefinitely so as to not appear indecisive. Five to ten percent down on the SPY in the short term? Weren't we just there a month ago?
In other anecdotal news, I am happy to report as an employer that I suddenly had good responses to my latest advertisements, admittedly at salaries 10% higher. Perhaps the lagging indicator that is the unemployment rate really is turning?
In other anecdotal news, I am happy to report as an employer that I suddenly had good responses to my latest advertisements, admittedly at salaries 10% higher. Perhaps the lagging indicator that is the unemployment rate really is turning?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I rolled -185/+135 to -185 next week. Just before the SP started falling. Same thing happened last week 
BTW, what have you guys done with your ITM calls because of SP shooting up after ER ?
BTW, what have you guys done with your ITM calls because of SP shooting up after ER ?
I bought 2 contracts by mistake at 4.65 and now it’s 1.1 and tomorrow is the expiration date, I tho I was buying for February 24. Any advice for tomorrow the expiration date?
Ah, I was wondering why the market-side sell-off. I was out at a friends, enjoying a couple of beers. Saw the fake recall and dip, then the stock shrugged it off. The next time I checked the SP, on the way home, I was like "WTF"?
Still, seems rolling my -p215's yesterday to -p200 and holding the -c215's wasn't such a bad move after all...
I still suspect TSLA would have held-up without the recall-FUD
In any case, that Bullard is always advocating 2x higher rate hikes than the rest, so what...? I suspect the bears just needed anything to justify shorting, we'll see how it works out for them...
Rolled them into oblivion.I rolled -185/+135 to -185 next week. Just before the SP started falling. Same thing happened last week
BTW, what have you guys done with your ITM calls because of SP shooting up after ER ?
I do have a couple that are outright disasters (CC for JUN 25 155? ugh...), but I was being very aggressive in my retirement account with the expectation that I might lose shares in the 100s.
For the most part I have JUN 23s through JAN 24s from 310 up through 500. Anything above 400 I am ready to part with without complaint, but of course I have a lot of options on those options
Cary Artac from WickedStock just posted a video update. He’s not alarmed by the pullback and said as long as TSLA holds 184.80 (and certainly if it closes over 208.25 tomorrow) we still have a shot at 221 next week and possibly as high as 252 over 2-3 weeks, and thus accumulating shares in the 190’s (or 220 calls for 2-weeks out) is not a terrible idea, just keep an eye on the 184.80 trigger to the downside to cut and run (or buy OTM 150 puts for 30 days out).
It could also rubber-band all day tomorrow between 190.53 and 208.
If we close below 184.80 tomorrow (he says that’s highly unlikely) then $143.37 is a 2-3 week target.
In all cases it may be wise to go to cash at 252.77 area if we don’t meaningfully break above and hold since it’s the top of this sequence and down is likely next.
None of this is financial advice, just food for thought.
I don’t know what system he follows if it is EWT or something but it sounds rational and plausible. @dl003 I’d be curious to hear your take on this if you’d indulge us.
Todays video:
It could also rubber-band all day tomorrow between 190.53 and 208.
If we close below 184.80 tomorrow (he says that’s highly unlikely) then $143.37 is a 2-3 week target.
In all cases it may be wise to go to cash at 252.77 area if we don’t meaningfully break above and hold since it’s the top of this sequence and down is likely next.
None of this is financial advice, just food for thought.
I don’t know what system he follows if it is EWT or something but it sounds rational and plausible. @dl003 I’d be curious to hear your take on this if you’d indulge us.
Todays video:
Thanks for posting this summary. I’ve been watching him and several other TA videos for a few weeks now. I think he’s very thoughtful, straightforward and his videos are an excellent introduction to TA. He seems to use lots of tools (Fibonacci, speed lines, trend lines and to a lesser extent, horizontal lines). His methods and analysis seem to correlate with Pierre The Daily Trader and provide a wide range of scenarios, from probable, possible, or likely to highly improbable (but maximum range). I like his summary, not too certain/uncertain or 100% predictive, but just enough to be helpful for trading.
I hope the red bold statement above is prescient and close halfway ($199.27).
Damn it! Why didn't I sell more calls.
His method is entirely foreign to me so I can't comment much on it. My read is:
It's still too early to freak out. People with a lot of money bought TSLA in quantity sufficient to produce a 110% rise in just over a month. This kind of rally doesn't reverse overnight. The topping process can be brutally choppy which sucks in bears here and there, only to squeeze them every other day.
There is no chance of a new low, given the current chart. This kind of rally is the mother of all impulsive sequences and so it's either one of 2 things: it's wave 1 of a 5 wave up or wave A of a 3 wave zig zag up. Either way, a new high is guaranteed, no matter how deep the retracement will be.
This deep reversal today is completely normal. In every TSLA rally, there is the real stuff and there is the froth, which is gamma induced overextension. When this gamma is reversed, it's going to produce sharp drops but that doesn't make the real stuff any less real. Now we just have to wait to find out how far we need to drop before we get to the real stuff.
My current level is 197. More likely than not we bounce tomorrow from here, targeting 208. Next is 186-188. Unless the market outright crashes from here, this should be the bottom before Investor's Day on 3/1. Break that and we get to 175. A sharp bounce from 175 is highly likely and that should be the bottom before Q1 P&D. Might overshoot it a bit and get to 171 but that should be it.
As I've mentioned at least twice before, TSLA will be bullish for the next 2 months. Why? Because the weekly momentum has flipped to bullish as we closed last week above 191. Understand this: we'd been on the weekly bearish train for almost 15 months, from November 2021 to January 2023. It was a brutal 15 months that saw a lot of people chewed out. Then another group of people with a vast amount of money decided it's time to put an end to that trend last week and they're willing to put their money where their mouth is. That won't easily change. I expect to see TSLA close out Q1 strong. If I have to pick a magnet for price, I'd say this 202 area.
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