Closed all my BPS for this week and opened 1050/850 for next week. Rolled my underwater 1090c to 1115c for next week. If not for my ccs I would not be as aggressive with my BPS as I see it as one side wins.
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I'm not quite as brave. Now that we know the Tuesday drop was a head fake, I rolled to 11/12. 700/900 and 1725/192511/12 IC is 450 wide:
+p950/-p1000 11Δ 18% OTM
-c1450/+c1500 11Δ 18% OTM
Breakeven 994/1457
View attachment 729242
I am not sure when I can be less conservative, I only do BPS -780/+680 & -750/+650 for around $1-$1.5 premium.I'm not quite as brave. Now that we know the Tuesday drop was a head fake, I rolled to 11/12. 700/900 and 1725/1925
I also put a Buy to Close Stop Loss on my 1725 @3 for a single contract, just so I get an alert on my Phone that those Calls are around 100% loss. Then I can log in and decide what to do with the rest. They might jump up to $3 if the SP jumps just a few percent and my contracts are still WAY OTM, so this is just an experiment (I don't want to buy them all back at a loss if I'm still feeling safe).I'm not quite as brave. Now that we know the Tuesday drop was a head fake, I rolled to 11/12. 700/900 and 1725/1925
It sure can't keep SHOOTING up. It can definitely keep going up given the demand for shares by institutions. If you look back at Q4 2019, the stock hardly took any breather except the sell off post Cybertruck reveal. I do think we are going to go sideway and up from here, given today's action but I've been wrong before (thrice within this last week actually). I'm going to sell super OTM puts and calls and wait for the stock to give a clearer signal. Trying to time it is dangerous at this point.Noticed that too.
I'm cautious for next week though:
- share price is soaring
- lots of puts get bought
= lots of incentive to push SP down soon and cash in on the sold puts
It can't keep going up. It just can't. When we retrace 10% is anyone's guess, but I think it will happen within the next two weeks.
People don't call us degenerate gamblers for nothing, you know?I am wondering, seems most of you have already open the BCS already, is there any reason why open it now instead of waiting till next Monday?
IV must have jumped. I’m still learning when to roll puts, and did some yesterday, which I definitely now know was too early and ended up paying too much for the BTC. The closed puts (1040s-1100s) lost a couple $ more overnight while the STO puts for next week actually gained (or lost less $ value that the BTC puts). I suppose that’s why patience is a virtue or maybe why it’s called “roll Thursday.”Holy cow the premiums for puts are high for next week. All my put spreads are losing money while the stock price is up $27! I had to roll my "I dare you" to next week because it was just too lucrative ($15.65/share for $150 spread at $117 OTM, wait, what?!?).
Must... resist... using... more... margin... except the damn margin available keeps going up! Must... resist...
I am thinking something similar, in general, would it be better to sell super OTM BPS / BCS (eg. around 30-40% OTM from each side) and tighten the range next week after we see a better direction?It sure can't keep SHOOTING up. It can definitely keep going up given the demand for shares by institutions. If you look back at Q4 2019, the stock hardly took any breather except the sell off post Cybertruck reveal. I do think we are going to go sideway and up from here, given today's action but I've been wrong before (thrice within this last week). I'm going to sell super OTM puts and calls and wait for the stock to give a clearer signal. Trying to time it is dangerous at this point.
If you open now, with the share price at $1235ish, you can get a higher premium than waiting until Monday if you think the stock price will be higher. It certainly feels like $1,500 is in play for next Friday 11/12. If this is the case, better to sell now than wait as the stock price keeps marching higher.I am wondering, seems most of you have already open the BCS already, is there any reason why open it now instead of waiting till next Monday?
Just sayin' that I got $4.5 for the 800/900's on TuesdayI had put an order in this morning for that same exact trade, just filled at $3.20. That's great premium for that low of a risk.
When you are more willing to lose a lot money.... In my mom's IRA, where I really don't want to lose money, I have 850/600 for next week now. I figure that even if the SP drops to 800, I can manage/roll that no problem.I am not sure when I can be less conservative, I only do BPS -780/+680 & -750/+650 for around $1-$1.5 premium.
That free Theta (time) decay over the weekend. Yes, big news could break over the weekend but time (Theta) is 100% guaranteed going to happen.I am wondering, seems most of you have already open the BCS already, is there any reason why open it now instead of waiting till next Monday?
You look smart now, but if the SP had kept dropping yesterday and today instead of rebounding, we would have looked like geniuses.Just sayin' that I got $4.5 for the 800/900's on Tuesday
I understand the BPS part since likely the price next monday will be higher, but why BCS now? If we assume next Monday SP will be higher (eg. 1300), then it would get a higher premium to open next week (assuming IV is same as today)If you open now, with the share price at $1235ish, you can get a higher premium than waiting until Monday if you think the stock price will be higher. It certainly feels like $1,500 is in play for next Friday 11/12. If this is the case, better to sell now than wait as the stock price keeps marching higher.
Will be interesting to see if we bounce of the $1240 level for a second time today. If so I'm quite confident tomorrow's close will be within $1150-1250 range.
To add to previous posts: I really don't see $1500 in play for next Friday. That's +20% from here. Spiking maybe, but not settling there.
(Not advice of course, I'm positioned for swings in either direction)
I understand the BPS part since likely the price next monday will be higher, but why BCS now? If we assume next Monday SP will be higher (eg. 1300), then it would get a higher premium to open next week (assuming IV is same as today)