Sure, I also tend to be on the other side, exercise options I hold, close to expiry, and ITM.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Lately I've come to realise that weekend theta - at least for me - isn't worth it.
Any news can come out, so many things can happen, and there's no way to manage positions over weekend..
So I mostly sell Bull Put spreads on monday, depending on action. Some $50 wide spread, somewhere below max pain, or at a price I'm reasonably certain will expire otm on friday. If action during week is stable like this week, I'll leg it into Iron Condor. If all is good, I'll be out of the market over the weekend.
If I have to manage a trade, then I will roll to next week.
Been working fine, I have made my targets for weekly premium, it's about as much as my monthly salary used to be.. so officially retired now at 42 with 4x the income I had from my job. Yii-haa!
And I have scheduled delivery for my Model Y LR on monday
Any news can come out, so many things can happen, and there's no way to manage positions over weekend..
So I mostly sell Bull Put spreads on monday, depending on action. Some $50 wide spread, somewhere below max pain, or at a price I'm reasonably certain will expire otm on friday. If action during week is stable like this week, I'll leg it into Iron Condor. If all is good, I'll be out of the market over the weekend.
If I have to manage a trade, then I will roll to next week.
Been working fine, I have made my targets for weekly premium, it's about as much as my monthly salary used to be.. so officially retired now at 42 with 4x the income I had from my job. Yii-haa!
And I have scheduled delivery for my Model Y LR on monday
AquaY
Member
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AquaY
Member
A 485 call you described as being NOT deep ITM if I remember correctly from the other thread. Sarcasm?
Not necessarily an indication of being bullish.
It's probably an indication of failing to see he would most likely have had made more profit simply selling the option.
He could be covering a short. He could have sold then after exercising them.
He might want bragging rights to be able to say " I bought tesla at $485 and flipped it at $735"
We'll never know.
I'd say though keeping a short call ITM by hundreds of $ that you did not want exercised is something I would not have done.
Lately I've come to realise that weekend theta - at least for me - isn't worth it.
Any news can come out, so many things can happen, and there's no way to manage positions over weekend..
So I mostly sell Bull Put spreads on monday, depending on action. Some $50 wide spread, somewhere below max pain, or at a price I'm reasonably certain will expire otm on friday. If action during week is stable like this week, I'll leg it into Iron Condor. If all is good, I'll be out of the market over the weekend.
If I have to manage a trade, then I will roll to next week.
Been working fine, I have made my targets for weekly premium, it's about as much as my monthly salary used to be.. so officially retired now at 42 with 4x the income I had from my job. Yii-haa!
And I have scheduled delivery for my Model Y LR on monday
I, on the other hand, don't mind weekend theta, assuming that I can roll away a bad week (which I've had to do). So I wanted to share some of my thoughts for the coming weeks that I plan to put trades on for today and get some feedback.
9/10 expiration already has nearly 300k OI and a max pain of 725. I'm going to look to sell puts at 725 and 715, expecting support from max pain at 725 and technicals at 715. I'm guessing we see resistance around 750-765, but I'll just wait until Monday and see.
9/17 I'm guessing will be a down week, but I'm just not sure how. FSD 10 should be released to the beta testers over that weekend, and if Elon is correct, the news should be very positive. We often don't see the catalysts that really move the stock coming (S&P inclusion hit about 2 weeks earlier than I would have ever thought possible, for instance), but MMs have a lot of incentive to push us down. Since that's quad witching, just an overall down market dragging us down is possible. I've got calls sold at 765 @ $9 for this week.
10/1 expiration looks like a very good chance to be a breakout week, but I'll sell puts for 10/8. FSD Beta button might come out 9/24, which means the wider public gets to experience it over that weekend. Presumably this is bullish. Also, anticipation of a blow out Q3 delivery number, which should be coming out early the following week, should push the SP higher. So I'm looking to sell some ITM BPS for that following week, probably around 765 short strike, meaning I expect us to top 765 by expiration at 10/8.
For all of these trades more than 1 week out, I'm using maybe 10% of my firepower total, so not massive positions. I still do most of my trading week to week, but I like to have positions on that are a month or so out to take advantage of unexpected moves in the SP and gather theta.
Overall, I think that the market isn't pricing in immanent TSLA success on FSD, and if it becomes clear from FSD 10 and the beta button that Tesla actually is the leader here by a wide margin (which I think they are), the stock may go 2019-2020 style nuts on us. At the very least if the math on FSD take rate goes from ~20% to ~70% on a "good enough" FSD, with a lot of existing Tesla owners hopping on, that should blow earnings estimates out of the water to a degree that is scary.
AquaY
Member
I think your thoughts for the coming weeks are sound and while I agree that the market isn't pricing "imminent" TSLA success on FSD I do not think that will happen quickly even when that imminent success occurs.
Between FUD and lack of understanding it will take some time for FSD to be accepted as successful. As a beta that will not be sufficient IMO
Many here will realize it as will others but the market will be lagging in that I believe.
Keep in mind the inspiration 4 mission from SpaceX this month.
Netflix covers it extensively and usually SpaceX accomplishments drive TSLA higher as that is the only Elon musk company people can invest in..
Netflix covers it extensively and usually SpaceX accomplishments drive TSLA higher as that is the only Elon musk company people can invest in..
jeewee3000
Active Member
For the 110 contracts BPS my broker would require me to have $385k margin. Maybe I should opt for the portfolio wide margin requirement.
(=35$ spread x 100 shares per contract x 110 option contracts).
jeewee3000
Active Member
Meh, disagree. I've seen $TSLA go down the cr*pper when SpaceX did great things the same day or day before.
IMO not related.
AquaY
Member
I'm thinking etrade has this wrong:
"
"
Higher Start AheadInternational Markets are open. | U.S. Markets are closed.
S&P futures vs fair value: -2995.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. "It won't really change with portfolio margin, because the risk is well defined.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Bought back all the covered calls I sold yesterday and one set Wednesday for 25-34% gain on all of them. Will look to resell them later today or Tuesday if we go back up.
corduroy
Active Member
Got 6 more @$3 on the MMD (hopefully that was the MMD). That's enough 3 day weekend theta for me. I'll look to sell more, closer to ATM on Tuesday, if conditions allow.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Most brokers offer it with some level of options. Etrade and TD Ameritrade offer portfolio margin with level 4 options trading (the highest)
InTheShadows
Active Member
Thanks. That will get my sons account unstuck. Since he’s not old enough to have his own I had to set up a joint custodial account and he can’t do spreads because I can only have one margin account with TD.
It's portfolio wide within one account :/ But you could use a different broker for his account.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Does anyone know how this probability number is calculated?
I'm working on a script in my spreadsheet to evaluate different spread sizes vs a value to spend to let me know what is the best roi vs probability.
I'll put it in a new google sheet and share it with all of you once I have it finished. along with instructions on how to get set up. You will need a TD Ameritrade developers account to use it. I don't think you have to have an account with them to create a developers account.
I'm working on a script in my spreadsheet to evaluate different spread sizes vs a value to spend to let me know what is the best roi vs probability.
I'll put it in a new google sheet and share it with all of you once I have it finished. along with instructions on how to get set up. You will need a TD Ameritrade developers account to use it. I don't think you have to have an account with them to create a developers account.
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