R
ReddyLeaf
Guest
Personally, I have been creeping closer to ATM (actually I’m selling ATM puts now because I’m willing to take the shares) because of 1) ten months of experience, 2) finally keeping a significant amount of cash available for buybacks, 3) balancing call-put sales around 4:1, 4) watching/learning from you and @Lycanthrope and, specific to this week, 5) having a very high confidence that the weekly SP will remain between 700 and 750 (MaxPain). Also, I’ve been modestly successful with timing my sales to local maximum (calls) or minimum (puts). When properly timed, they drop in value quickly enough that I feel comfortable letting them ride. Improperly timed, well, that‘s what the extra cash buyback-roll is for. Since I‘m living off of other income, and I have many years before I can access these IRA accounts, I don’t really have a specific premium target, though lately it has been $4–$8. Months ago I was happy with $2-$4 premiums, now I’m just happier. All of the profits eventually go into buying 5-10 shares per week. My original goal was to add 100-200 additional shares this year, which I have exceeded by judicious small purchases below MaxPain every week. As for increased risk on an IV jump, well I’ve already lost call shares below $650, been put shares at $800 when the SP was $620, and any number of prices in between. I’m certainly not perfect, but getting paid to learn (and learning with a lot of mistakes) and been fun and challenging. All of my trades are fully cash- or share-backed, no margin or leverage, so it’s all really just turning the wheel. If the SP runs away from me, well, then I just lose out on some future appreciation. I’ll continue to sell puts ATM and make 1%/wk (>50%/yr is pretty good interest) until the SP pulls back. On the other hand, I will immediately buyback any calls that I can when the annual meeting date or stock split is announced. I don’t want to have sold calls during the annual meeting.A question - mostly rhetorical - but something for everybody to be thinking about that seem to be getting closer and closer ATM in their trades (which has include me especially with 725 strike calls, but also on the put side):
Are we pulling in closer to the share price due to technical analysis that leaves us highly confident in what will happen with the share price, or is this also at least partly driven by a premium / credit result we are seeking? The shrinking IV should make for smaller and smaller credits assuming reasonably constant distance from the share price.