Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

TEST: Red bar disappeared at spot (white bar), meaning dealers should support the moves up by buying until the red bar around $202.50 where they'll switch to selling (possible cap):

If this works it's an amazing tool
Let's see



Additionally this second tool adds confluence, the lower the bar shows dealers support pricing there:

 

[Jim Holder]

Blocked on the daily 0.236 fib ($196.47).
Guess what was HOD so far: $196.47

 

[juanmedina]

how crazy is it? smci 6Δ 1dte gives me more income than tsla 6Δ 7dte

Are you still confident that it will stay under $1000 tomorrow?

 

[elasalle]

Are you still confident that it will stay under $1000 tomorrow?

Already up 32% on back of NVDA earnings previous high was 1004 ...
I bought a April 700 PUT .... let's see ...

 

[Yoona]

Are you still confident that it will stay under $1000 tomorrow?

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760732300134772811

 

[TexasGator]

Are you still confident that it will stay under $1000 tomorrow

I wasnt... I had sold 3 1000/1100 BCS for tomorrow earlier today, and as it went past 980, I ended up closing out for a loss. right after that, it came down for now. hopefully my sacrifice helps

As an academic exercise - what happens in this sort of situation, say the SP closed at 975 and went over 1050 AH.... possible to get assigned overnight? that is what worried me and led to the early close

 

[Jim Holder]

I guess the saying that the second half of February is the worst for equities only pertains to TSLA

 

[Jim Holder]

The Spot GEX tool seems to be predictive so far from $195 to $197.00+. Latest is showing dealer supporting price movement up to $202.50 area where they will start selling into it.

NOTE: It's not saying that the dealers will MAKE the prices go there, but that they join the market AS IT MOVE TOWARD THE STRIKE adding fuel to the move up (green bars) and down (red bars)

It still has to clear resistance at $197.81:

Watch this short video to understand:

Thanks @Yoona for surfacing this tool!

 

[ChiefRollo]

i dunno what "spot gex" is

I see it as a more intuitive indicator of MM’s expected behavior per its Gamma exposure, a negative of GEX picture.

 

[ChiefRollo]

The Spot GEX tool seems to be predictive so far from $195 to $197.00+. Latest is showing dealer supporting price movement up to $202.50 area where they will start selling into it.

NOTE: it's not that the dealers MAKE the price go there, but they join the market as it rises or falls, adding fuel to the move up (green bars) and down (red bars)

View attachment 1020855


It still has to clear resistance at $197.81:

View attachment 1020857

I see it as representative of MM’s action to influence SP to stay within its bid-ask spread, countering mass traders’ force.

 

[Jim Holder]

Spot Gex levels as shown on a chart (15-min)

Green level means dealers join and support the move into that area (buy along with the market)
Red level means they start selling, which can slow and even stop the run.

We see today how it worked between 193-197 after the red bars went away:

 

[csmith1521]

The Spot GEX tool seems to be predictive so far from $195 to $197.00+. Latest is showing dealer supporting price movement up to $202.50 area where they will start selling into it.

NOTE: It's not saying that the dealers will MAKE the prices go there, but that they join the market AS IT MOVE TOWARD THE STRIKE adding fuel to the move up (green bars) and down (red bars)

I wonder if it becomes more accurate as the week progresses? The real value would be it's predictive accuracy further out in time.

 

[transpondster]

I wasnt... I had sold 3 1000/1100 BCS for tomorrow earlier today, and as it went past 980, I ended up closing out for a loss. right after that, it came down for now. hopefully my sacrifice helps

As an academic exercise - what happens in this sort of situation, say the SP closed at 975 and went over 1050 AH.... possible to get assigned overnight? that is what worried me and led to the early close

Calls are almost never exercised earlier, the only early call exercise for me was for VALE and it had dividend at that date.

 

[elasalle]

I wasnt... I had sold 3 1000/1100 BCS for tomorrow earlier today, and as it went past 980, I ended up closing out for a loss. right after that, it came down for now. hopefully my sacrifice helps

As an academic exercise - what happens in this sort of situation, say the SP closed at 975 and went over 1050 AH.... possible to get assigned overnight? that is what worried me and led to the early close

1000/1100 BCS

between 1000 and 1100, 1100 expires worthless, 1K is in the money and you will be assigned and you will see (-100) shares in your portfolio if margin/credit is good. Not good, they might sell anything and then use the proceeds to purchase this at 1K for you ...

 

[TexasGator]

1000/1100 BCS

between 1000 and 1100, 1100 expires worthless, 1K is in the money and you will be assigned and you will see (-100) shares in your portfolio if margin/credit is good. Not good, they might sell anything and then use the proceeds to purchase this at 1K for you ...

agreed for tomorrow night - was thinking overnight tonight (as the SP is >980 again). according to optionstrat there is a huge drop in premium overnight, but thinking its possible that it spikes enough to take time value to 0 so that you do end up getting assigned early. Still shocked that SMCI went up 35%+ today

edit: as an example - tonight SP closes at 995, premium is ~ $40 so should be "safe" to 1035. But spikes to 1075 in AH

thanks
mikep

 

[juanmedina]

agreed for tomorrow night - was thinking overnight tonight (as the SP is >980 again). according to optionstrat there is a huge drop in premium overnight, but thinking its possible that it spikes enough to take time value to 0 so that you do end up getting assigned early. Still shocked that SMCI went up 35%+ today

We are not in a bubble . Even at 35% no one seems to be taking profits. Nuts.

 

[TexasGator]

We are not in a bubble . Even at 35% no one seems to be taking profits. Nuts.

no kidding - will be interesting to see what happens in AH once there aren't alot of shares - could get even crazier

 

[Jim Holder]

Deployed some scalping gains to
BTO 10x +P180 4/19 (57 days) @$6.50.

Also:
STO 10x -C210 3/1 @$1.50 (3rd roundtrip)
BTO 10x +C250 6/21 @5.45

 

[dl003]

We are not in a bubble . Even at 35% no one seems to be taking profits. Nuts.

That's one one of the hallmarks of a bubble. Just sayin.