Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Buckminster]

Has anyone come across…or taken a stab at…how, assuming a clear, capital V Victory by Ukraine, the issue of reparations can be or has been intelligently and effectively addressed?
The poster child for egregious, vindictive, and ultimately world-shakingly catastrophic reparations is, as all surely know well, the 1919 Treaty of Versailles and its spawn: Locarno…Dawes…Young…Lausanne…but the gist of it is that much of WWII was foretold by the crippling of Germany.
I have no words of wisdom, but gladly would listen to some.

In this 50:50 event (I am usually overly optimistic) I would say NATO will hand over $1T over 50 years and let Ukraine rebuild. They are not a third world country that can't build anything. Last thing they need is western bureaucracy slowing things down. Bricklayers and other building professions have just been added to the UK shortage list and will probably be going in the opposite direction.

 

[petit_bateau]

Has anyone come across…or taken a stab at…how, assuming a clear, capital V Victory by Ukraine, the issue of reparations can be or has been intelligently and effectively addressed?
The poster child for egregious, vindictive, and ultimately world-shakingly catastrophic reparations is, as all surely know well, the 1919 Treaty of Versailles and its spawn: Locarno…Dawes…Young…Lausanne…but the gist of it is that much of WWII was foretold by the crippling of Germany.
I have no words of wisdom, but gladly would listen to some.

I suspect the current thinking is to simply seize all 'defined' Russian assets that are within reach and outside Russia. Where the 'defined' assets wil be those belonging directly to the Russian state; and Russian state proxies (Gazprom etc); and sanctioned/etc individuals. But this can - I think - only legally be done either through Russian consent (unlikely) or as a result of legal rulings in the various jurisdictions. Obtaining those rullings will be easiest if there is a high-level court judgement that Russia has committed a crime of aggression. Obtaining such a judgement seems to be very difficult, especially given Russian UN P5 veto powers. A lot will depend on the condition of the Russian state at the time of 'ending' of this conflict. For example will it even be a unitary state ? If it fissions in the Balkanisation scenario scrambling to secure the nuclear weapons will be a lot higher on the agenda than getting reparations. (One can conceive of pathways that combine both). Obtaining reparations beyond those of asset seizures would seem to be counterproductive to most onlookers, though that depends on the political outcome within Russia again. If Russia were to be spreading its wealth generation widely internally (a first) then definitely counterproductive to get reparations. If however the kleptocrats secure the rent then interdicting it for reparations makes sense.

There have been some law changes within the key western nations to make some of this more easy. I am sure more wil be required.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Has anyone come across…or taken a stab at…how, assuming a clear, capital V Victory by Ukraine, the issue of reparations can be or has been intelligently and effectively addressed?

Canada's Deputy Prime Minister Chystia Freeland is working with other Western nations to lock up Russian accounts held in Western Banks. The process of seizing Russian funds is underway now, which will be helped by a positive ruling from the ICC in The Hague. These funds alone will go a long way toward reconstruction, while denying the same ability for Russia to further influence the future destiny of Ukraine.

Ms. Freeland (54) is also the current Minister of Finance of Canada, has served as Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs (2019–2020), Minister of Foreign Affairs (2017–2019), and Minister of International Trade Diversification (2015–2017).

Freeland completed her B.A. at Harvard, studying Russian history and literature before earning a master's degree in Slavonic studies from Oxford University on a Rhodes Scholarship. During 1988–89, she was an exchange student at the University of Kyiv in Ukraine, where she studied Ukrainian, although she was already fluent in the language.

Freland worked as a journalist in editorial positions at the Financial Times, The Globe and Mail and Reuters, where she became Managing Director. She is uniquely qualified to understand the Russian government, and how to disasemble it.

She's also a good Ukrainian-Canadian girl too, born in Peace River, Alberta to her Ukrainian WW2 immigrant mother (a lawyer, activist, teacher, community organizer, bookstore founder, co-operative housing pioneer, politician, student, international legal reformer, and single mother).

Deputy P.M. Freeland is also a headliner on Moscow's "No-Fly List".

TL;dr Good people are on the job, in the finest tradition of Lester B. Pearson.

Cheers to the Banksters. Long may you Servus!

 

[petit_bateau]

The remaining span is back in light-duty. The piers are apparently intact. After all it seems there is only the one impact site, not two.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681254942835875840

 

[Artful Dodger]

The remaining span is back in light-duty. The piers are apparently intact. After all it seems there is only the one impact site, not two.

That one-way traffic for civilian vehicles is fine, provided it's in the outbound direction. Civilians should leave now, not a healthly place to live going forward (the Entr'acte is nearly done).

 

[wdolson]

The remaining span is back in light-duty. The piers are apparently intact. After all it seems there is only the one impact site, not two.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681254942835875840

I saw some civil engineers on Twitter saying that it isn't safe to be driving any traffic over that span. It wasn't as bad on the south lanes of the bridge, but they pointed out that the fact the expansion joints moved like they did is indicative something isn't right underneath the bridge. There are likely spots under the bridge that should not be in tension that are now in tension. Driving traffic over it in that state could result in the span shifting further.

A month or two back I also posted some articles from the time the bridge was constructed. Here is one of them I found again in a quick search
Europe’s Longest Bridge Spans Troubled Waters

I have seen some civil engineers predicting some sort of natural event seriously damaging the bridge is a matter of when not if. Of course it would be convenient for Ukraine f the "when" happened soon, but you can't dictate what mother nature does.

 

[petit_bateau]

There are some good military affairs pieces gathered together in the Economist. None of it will be new to anyone here, but those with an Economist subscription will find it an interesting read.

Battlefield lessons | Jul 8th 2023 | The Economist

Battlefield lessons. Special report from The Economist. You've seen the news, now discover the story.

www.economist.com

On the subject of mil-human losses it has this, which is in rough approximation with other numbers we have seen:

The ensuing war has been a lesson in old-style attrition: an industrial-scale contest of manpower, steel and explosives. Russia is thought to have had over 200,000 casualties, killed and wounded. That is four times the number of Soviet casualties in Afghanistan, a war that lasted for a decade. It is two and a half British armies. More than 20,000 Russians died between December 2022 and April 2023 alone, say American sources, most of them in or around Bakhmut, a previously inconsequential town in eastern Ukraine. Not since Iran’s ruinous siege of Basra in 1987 has an army expended so much, in such a short time, for so little. Ukraine, too, has bled badly. Leaked American intelligence reports in late February suggest that it has suffered over 100,000 casualties itself, including more than 15,000 killed.

So on the KIA+WIA ratio we get Russia 200,000 : Ukraine 100,000, so 2:1 if that 200k is correct

But on the KIA ratio the UA Gen Staff daily update gives 200k as deaths, at least that is how I have followed the number though it seems I may have been wrong in my understanding (now that I compare it with some other stuff below)

https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023/07/18/the-total-combat-losses-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-2022-to-18-07-2023/

If the Russian KIA is 'only' 50k of that 200k then the KIA ratio is Russia 50k : Ukraine 15k, i.e. 3.3:1.

That 50k number accords with this latest study, and some other that are referred to

"Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead.
Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow’s closest-held secrets — the true human cost of its invasion of Ukraine."

New data suggests 50,000 Russian deaths during Ukraine war

Independent Russian media shed light on one of Moscow’s closest-held secrets.

www.aljazeera.com

See also Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

On the KIA: WIA ratio that gives for Russia 50k KIA : 150k WIA, so 1:3 (or 75% chance of surviving if a casualty for a Russian).

On the KIA: WIA ratio that gives for Ukraine 15k KIA : 85k WIA, so 1:5.6 (or 85% chance of surviving if a casualty for a Ukraine).

Those aren't too dissimilar, but what we don't know is the qualitative outcomes.

The overall context is pre war Russian population 143 million and Ukraine 43 million, i.e. 3:1. Where pretty much all of Ukrainian society is making an effort to contribute, but by no means all of Russian society.

 

[madodel]

To demonstrate that there is at least one example of an extremist element that is very much opposed to US support for Ukraine, here is one of the questions from a straw poll taken of attendees at Turning Point Action event in Florida this past weekend. Yes these are the extreme of the extreme, but it is an extremely lopsided vote against US involvement in the Ukraine war.

 

[jerry33]

To demonstrate that there is at least one example of an extremist element that is very much opposed to US support for Ukraine, here is one of the questions from a straw poll taken of attendees at Turning Point Action event in Florida this past weekend. Yes these are the extreme of the extreme, but it is an extremely lopsided vote against US involvement in the Ukraine war.

View attachment 957330

I think it's the way the question was worded. Most people likely interpreted it as: Do you support U.S. troops... because "involvement" is shorthand for sending troops.

 

[madodel]

I think it's the way the question was worded. Most people likely interpreted it as: Do you support U.S. troops... because "involvement" is shorthand for sending troops.

I'm pretty sure these people are aware of what the US is doing. "Involvement" means support. They are Putin lovers. I can't get into it any more than that because of the ban on a certain topic and won't comment any more than this. The question came up a few pages back and some people couldn't believe that there is a chance of a future where the US pulls support for Ukraine. I'm hoping this doesn't come to pass but there is a chance. That's all.

 

[nativewolf]

USA is preparing anti drone aid for ukraine

U.S. to announce $1.3 bln in military aid for Ukraine -sources

The United States will announce a new pledge to buy $1.3 billion worth of military aid for Kyiv in its conflict with Russia in the coming days, two U.S. officials said.

www.reuters.com

Significant

 

[AudubonB]

As the USSR learned to its frustration at the beginning of the Korean War that in the UN, the Security Council - and uninterrupted presence therein - is the be-all and end-all of the United Nations. The General Assembly is....well, maybe a good analogy is the Graduate Student Council of any US university. With that, and following up on the one or two references above that Russia thus can thwart any UN-derived reparation or other knuckle-slapping:

I do not remember. Does anyone know if there are any mechanisms to make unpermanent Permanent Membership on the Security Council? I refer, of course, to the easing out of Russia from its position. I am guessing I know the answer, unfortunately.

 

[nativewolf]

@RobStark

More updates on that

Russia massing 100,000 troops for attack on Kharkiv

Senior military officials believe attack may be a diversionary tactic to draw Ukrainians away from the counter-offensive

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[madodel]

As the USSR learned to its frustration at the beginning of the Korean War that in the UN, the Security Council - and uninterrupted presence therein - is the be-all and end-all of the United Nations. The General Assembly is....well, maybe a good analogy is the Graduate Student Council of any US university. With that, and following up on the one or two references above that Russia thus can thwart any UN-derived reparation or other knuckle-slapping:

I do not remember. Does anyone know if there are any mechanisms to make unpermanent Permanent Membership on the Security Council? I refer, of course, to the easing out of Russia from its position. I am guessing I know the answer, unfortunately.

Republic of China was removed and the PRC took their seat in 1971 after a vote by the UN General Assembly, but that was just a redefinition of who represented China in the UN General Assembly and on the UNSC. Unless Russia breaks up and there is an opportunity to redefine who represents "Russia" as a permanent member it doesn't seem possible because of the UN Charter.

Edit: Should have researched this. Technically the Union Soviet Socialist Republics is in the Original UN Charter and that was the entity that signed as a permanent member of the UNSC. The Russian Federation never signed the UN Charter but was seated as the successor state of the USSR.

 

[adiggs]

Republic of China was removed and the PRC took their seat in 1971 after a vote by the UN General Assembly, but that was just a redefinition of who represented China in the UN General Assembly and on the UNSC. Unless Russia breaks up and there is an opportunity to redefine who represents "Russia" as a permanent member it doesn't seem possible because of the UN Charter.

Edit: Should have researched this. Technically the Union Soviet Socialist Republics is in the Original UN Charter and that was the entity that signed as a permanent member of the UNSC. The Russian Federation never signed the UN Charter but was seated as the successor state of the USSR.

Wouldn't it be a kick to see Russia balkanize, and the UN use that opportunity to redefine "Russia" to mean "Kyiv"

 

[melvladimir]

Ideally I would think it would be right for Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine, but realistically I don't think it's going to happen

There are a lot of unknown pieces yet, but there are plenty of options too) For example, after reestablishing full-scale trading routes back to RF, a special tax on everything might be added. International SWIFT payments etc. - all funds transfers can have some extra fee, which will be transferred to a particular account - "compensation for rebuilding Ukraine". And, for instance, it can belong to International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

But it all depends on the weapon aid. All these 17 months it feels like testing polygon for modern weapon: we provide you with some amount and see how you'll manage. And all these 17 months the war is only on Ukrainian territory. Only several small explosions were within RF territory. But should be much more. And will be. The war ends when terrorists die two steps from their homes.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

@RobStark

More updates on that

Russia massing 100,000 troops for attack on Kharkiv

Senior military officials believe attack may be a diversionary tactic to draw Ukrainians away from the counter-offensive

www.telegraph.co.uk

Or distract from Belarus.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

To demonstrate that there is at least one example of an extremist element that is very much opposed to US support for Ukraine, here is one of the questions from a straw poll taken of attendees at Turning Point Action event in Florida this past weekend. Yes these are the extreme of the extreme, but it is an extremely lopsided vote against US involvement in the Ukraine war.

View attachment 957330

I think it's the way the question was worded. Most people likely interpreted it as: Do you support U.S. troops... because "involvement" is shorthand for sending troops.

From Wikipedia:

"...] TPA hosted a conference in July, 2023 called “ACTCON”[6], it was hosted in West Palm Beach and drew roughly around 6,000 attendees.[7] [...] keynote speaker [was] Tucker Carlson. [My u-line.] [...

More info here:

Turning Point Action - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[AudubonB]

Republic of China was removed and the PRC took their seat in 1971 after a vote by the UN General Assembly, but that was just a redefinition of who represented China in the UN General Assembly and on the UNSC. Unless Russia breaks up and there is an opportunity to redefine who represents "Russia" as a permanent member it doesn't seem possible because of the UN Charter.

Edit: Should have researched this. Technically the Union Soviet Socialist Republics is in the Original UN Charter and that was the entity that signed as a permanent member of the UNSC. The Russian Federation never signed the UN Charter but was seated as the successor state of the USSR.

Yes: It's that technicality that was worming around in my little memory bank. Could be a very interesting technicality to explore, indeed......

 

[Tiger]

I do not remember. Does anyone know if there are any mechanisms to make unpermanent Permanent Membership on the Security Council? I refer, of course, to the easing out of Russia from its position. I am guessing I know the answer, unfortunately.

Easy, start a new one, called "Not-a-UN, the one without Russia and the one without Veto powers"