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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Russian revenues down, sanctions largely working as designed (imho)

 
So... Anyone feel like 'guesstimating' when this might start having the kind of impact that could sway a sufficiently large part of the Dictator's 'repression machine'?... Sufficiently large in that it may give a rebellion against the Dictator a clear upper hand...

This 10 minute shock video has pretty dark projections for Russia as well as any country previously doing trade with Russia which is just about every country. In any event it sounds like things are falling apart now. One would hope a rebellion is near.

 
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A very helpful quantity


Timing dilemma though....perhaps not enough for summer battles:

"Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said during his surprise visit to Kiev that 20 to 25 tanks should be delivered to Ukraine by the summer. By the end of the year, there should be up to 80. The goal is to reach more than 100 in the course of the first or second quarter of 2024"
 
This 10 minute shock video has pretty dark projections for Russia as well as any country previously doing trade with Russia which is just about every country. In any event it sounds like things are falling apart now. One would hope a rebellion is near.

I had to stop when he said neon shortages will mean no more chips, cell phones, etc.

Or maybe we'll just stop making neon signs for a while.....
 
Trending this way and now recording over 1000 Russian casualties a day with the Russian “offensive” in the meat grinder picking up:


The Russians tried something and took big losses. 28 APVs and 14 tanks lost too. That looks like an assault that went badly.

Troop loss aside, Ru's equipment loss is astounding too. Almost 6000 tanks. artillery/MLRS units destroyed to-date.

Yes. The Russians started the war with almost all self propelled artillery and the bulk of it now is towed artillery pulled from storage. Between battlefield losses and barrels wearing out, their artillery stock has taken a heavy beating.

of course these are estimates, it remains to be seen what the real losses are. Astoundingly high estimates though and unless estimate calls changed this is trending higher over the last month.

Oryx only lists visually confirmed losses. Everybody, including them admit that real losses are almost certainly much higher than their numbers. I think the Ukrainian numbers are probably in the ballpark of accurate.

I had to stop when he said neon shortages will mean no more chips, cell phones, etc.

Or maybe we'll just stop making neon signs for a while.....

Zeihan can be kind of hair on fire. I work in a field related to the integrated circuit manufacturing world. Neon is used in CRTs, but how many of those do we make? They are also used to make vacuum tubes, which have very limited uses these days.

World neon supply is tight, which does impact a few industries, but it's not going to grind world production of lots of necessities to a halt.
 
The Russians tried something and took big losses. 28 APVs and 14 tanks lost too. That looks like an assault that went badly.



Yes. The Russians started the war with almost all self propelled artillery and the bulk of it now is towed artillery pulled from storage. Between battlefield losses and barrels wearing out, their artillery stock has taken a heavy beating.



Oryx only lists visually confirmed losses. Everybody, including them admit that real losses are almost certainly much higher than their numbers. I think the Ukrainian numbers are probably in the ballpark of accurate.



Zeihan can be kind of hair on fire. I work in a field related to the integrated circuit manufacturing world. Neon is used in CRTs, but how many of those do we make? They are also used to make vacuum tubes, which have very limited uses these days.

World neon supply is tight, which does impact a few industries, but it's not going to grind world production of lots of necessities to a halt.

Great way to describe him. Good for getting attention for sure. Everything he bloviates on feels like it is predicated on an underlying assumption of inelastic supply.
 
World neon supply is tight, which does impact a few industries, but it's not going to grind world production of lots of necessities to a halt.

This is how Neon is made:-

Production​

Neon is produced from air in cryogenic air-separation plants. A gas-phase mixture mainly of nitrogen, neon, and helium is withdrawn from the main condenser at the top of the high-pressure air-separation column and fed to the bottom of a side column for rectification of the neon.[44] It can then be further purified from helium.

About 70% of the global neon supply is produced in Ukraine[45] as a by-product of steel production in Russia.[46] As of 2020, the company Iceblick, with plants in Odessa and Moscow, supplies 65% of the world's production of neon, as well as 15% of the krypton and xenon.[47][48]

More details:-
Neon comprises 1 part in 55,000 in the Earth's atmosphere, or 18.2 ppm by volume (this is about the same as the molecule or mole fraction), or 1 part in 79,000 of air by mass. It comprises a smaller fraction in the crust. It is industrially produced by cryogenic fractional distillation of liquefied air.[2]
So while expensive and energy intensive to produce, it can be done anywhere,,
 
This is how Neon is made:-


More details:-

So while expensive and energy intensive to produce, it can be done anywhere,,

I had some time to look a little further. Where neon is used with ICs is in the lasers used to etch the wafers. That's not a use that is uses up the neon quickly. I suppose some leaks out and it needs to be replaced from time to time, but that's not something that is going to halt production. I vaguely recall reading something about that last year.

Most commercial neon is made as a byproduct of steel production. Krypton and xenon are also produced by the process. This is probably much cheaper than distilling it from air. If it's a byproduct of steel production, anybody making steel can capture the neon. I think China produces the most steel in the world right now.
 
@petit_bateau so what platforms are the Ukraine pilots going to be trained on?

What longer range weapons?
At this point it is all clear as mud.

The Hawks for the early-ish stages of flight training are already a major problem, so much so that UK is looking at sending our own trainees to Australia and USA. Very embarassing and a problem with decades of bad decision making leading into it.

My suspicion - and I have zero private information, which of course is why I can speculate :) - is that the most relevant training is the more advanced weapons/etc courses. A heck of a lot of that stuff happens on simulators, and we do have a lot of good simulators and the wider training environment (i.e. instructors, syllabus, etc). So I suspect that is the more likely training packages. Those packages would be of value irrespective of aircraft type as a lot of this stuff can read across into F16, Gripen, etc.

Regarding hardware again I don't know. We have 20-30 Typhoon tranche 1 that are in storage. (We'd been using these 20-30 tranche 1 for QRA purposes, so mostly pure air-to-air; most of the air-to-ground weaponry was included in tranche 3 from memory) Theoretically they could be gifted to Ukraine, however they are supposedly un-upgradeable to tranche 2, 3, etc. At least that is the excuse the MoD/Treasury have been trotting out for years for not upgrading them. Unfortunately BAe spoilt that excuse last week by saying "of course we can refurbish them and upgrade them" and the reality is that money has been the bigger consideration. Which I perfectly well accept, but at least be honest and say so. The rumour is that these airframes have been robbed of all the good stuff to keep other Typhoons serviceable, but how much truth there is in that rumour I don't know. A good solution would be to refurbish them and gift them to Ukraine in tranche 1 or 1+ state, and that way we can keep the best stuff away from Russian hands, and simultaneously put the airframes to some use. However we should note that the Typhoon tranche 1 is still a very potent twin engine aircraft with a range that would allow it to penetrate a long way into Russia (or elsewhere) if it were based in Ukraine, i.e. the West should think carefully about the longer term implications if this stuff ends up in the wrong hands.

Regarding weaponry (which is to an extent airframe independent, as much of thiscan be carried on both F16 and Gripen etc) clearly Ukraine needs to switch across to Western aviation missile families for sustainment reasons - Sidewinder is the easy give. But Ukraine needs longer range stuff to deal with the corresponding Russian usage, and that means as a minimum AMRAAM or Iris, but ideally Meteor. I cannot see Meteor being offered to Ukraine, it is likely too valuable. But some AMRAAM or Iris might be do-able. For air-to-ground I think that only the shorter range stuff would be on offer - GPS, LGB, and HARM/ALAARM which are of course within the existing usage.

But like I say details are very sparse.