My $0.02 on the original poster's message... I was sad to see my own car get discontinued less than year after I got it! But after months have passed allowing me to reflect on it... I disagree with your main point. I believe Elon is a big fan of the traction & grip you get from AWD on dry surfaces, wet surfaces, puddles, grass, snow, ice... everything. It's ideal for cars not suited to the track - since cars not suited to the track are driven by 99% of us regular folks, and one of the things we are interested in the most is...
safety, especially for the family. AWD is a great help no matter where you are... eventually it rains in Texas, and you may need to get out of the way of someone coming at you! The deletion of the RWD products on October 9th falls firmly in line with this philosophy (while also increasing ASP, as many have observed).
Take the Model X. You will recall, it had RWD and AWD variants, but they decided to drop the RWD version. Range may have been a factor with that, but I believe the family-oriented target demographic for the "X" was also important, and so, safety is paramount. People looking for safety see "AWD" as one more checkbox with a check in it. Look at Subaru's TV commercials these days... they're all about being parents.
What does this leave for the
1% who like to drive the same car on regular roads AND the track? If you are in a P85 right now and think it's great, and will become a classic, well, come on, it's not
really perfect, is it? It can't track for very long. It's like an understudy who never gets to go on stage in front of the crowd. If you are lamenting the deletion of the P85/P85+, come on... it has 4 doors and a seven-seat option. Not really made for the track. Maybe that's why we will think of it as a classic... because it is not perfect. I love the acceleration but I hate the traction-slip and fishtailing once the tires are no longer new. (Have not taken it to a track yet)
What I believe Tesla wants to do going forwards is keep road cars and AWD together as much as possible, with few or no RWD variants. This promotes range and safety. Only
cost to the customer will force them to provide RWD... the $35,000 announced price of the Model 3 will be a RWD version, but ironically its 200-mile range will be shorter range than the Model 3 AWD variant on the same battery. Even if the equivalent AWD Model 3 can do (say) 220 miles, Tesla will still produce the RWD version because they are hamstrung by price. But they will still use their powers and steer unsuspecting Model 3 buyers towards the AWD variants when possible - because it's a profit center - but also because it
is safer in more circumstances, and Elon wants his precious Tesla brand to build a reputation for good roadholding in bad conditions. (and I don't blame him... and IMO this process is already well on its way)
IMO - the next generation of the Roadster will be where Elon next produces an all-out sporting car, whose driver takes responsibility for his safety and the car will respond in a sporting manner when given the right input from the driver. RWD will probably come high on the list of features.
If you listen carefully into the most recent earnings call, Elon talked about variations of the Model 3 platform that, initially, were considered for an early start along with the 200-mile $35,000 variant, but were put on the back burner until that main Model 3 car was safely into production. After this point, "schedule and production volume issues" would be less important, so more "out there" designs might appear on the Model 3 platform. Perhaps the next generation Roadster is one of these lower-volume variants; more expensive to buy of course, with larger motor/invertor combo, beefed-up drivetrain cooling for endurace, open-top w/ roll bar, 2 seats, not much storage space, etc. - very different to the form factor of the Model S.
Further out into the future, when Tesla gets to work on their Generation 4 car, which unless it's a pickup truck I would assume is something that would be in the Honda Civic category and appeal to even more people with a $20,000 price... Tesla will still continue with the same tactic. They'll want to put AWD into it but they'll have to put out an RWD variant at the bottom of the range, for reasons of cost.
BWA HA HA this is my 666th post...