Sleepy,
Please ignore the anonymous poster. Your comments and analysis are most welcomed and greatly appreciated!
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Sleepy,
Please ignore the anonymous poster. Your comments and analysis are most welcomed and greatly appreciated!
+1 for me and likely +many more for other readers. Your posts are greatly appreciated.
I posted an update:
So far I have 4 people showing interest. So I think it is a GO already. Now we just need the performance criteria to be hit!
I start working on the logistic.
Note the updated version is always here: Tesla Q2 celebration - Google Drive
With Bay area, we are sure to have a pool of Tesla for transportation, which is very fitting.
One thought is take a ride to Napa Valley and have a wine, along with some discussion and fun
One drawback is lack of entertainment in the area?
Vegas of course is very fitting for celebration. However we need someone to offer Tesla for transportation, most likely from Southern Cal area?
Callmesam, this is where you can contribute!
2 days?
3 days?
4 days?
Excluding airfare, we estimate about $150 per day for nice lodging in either location. Add $150 for basic daily spending, it is about $300 per day. Entertainment and activity extra.
Founders are volunteers who chip in money to invite Julian Cox (and perhaps more contributors) to the party.
Kevin W. (kevin99)
...
Please check your inbox if you indicate you interest
Attendees pay for his/her own expense. Currently there is no plan for asking additional fee for event. However time with invited speaker is obviously based on availability.
...
Please check your inbox if you indicate you interest
So far I have 4 people showing interest. So I think it is a GO already. Now we just need the performance criteria to be hit!
I start working on the logistic.
Note the updated version is always here: Tesla Q2 celebration - Google Drive
2. Location of party?
A. Bay Area?
With Bay area, we are sure to have a pool of Tesla for transportation, which is very fitting.
One thought is take a ride to Napa Valley and have a wine, along with some discussion and fun
One drawback is lack of entertainment in the area?
Las Vegas?
Vegas of course is very fitting for celebration. However we need someone to offer Tesla for transportation, most likely from Southern Cal area?
Callmesam, this is where you can contribute!
3. Duration of the Event
2 days?
3 days?
4 days?
4. Cost of Event per person?
Excluding airfare, we estimate about $150 per day for nice lodging in either location. Add $150 for basic daily spending, it is about $300 per day. Entertainment and activity extra.
5. “Founders” List
Founders are volunteers who chip in money to invite Julian Cox (and perhaps more contributors) to the party.
Kevin W. (kevin99)
...
Please check your inbox if you indicate you interest
6. Attendees List
Attendees pay for his/her own expense. Currently there is no plan for asking additional fee for event. However time with invited speaker is obviously based on availability.
...
Please check your inbox if you indicate you interest
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Cool Sam! I already have about 4 people signing up so far so this is a GO!
But do come to my latest post (in my signature) to sign up and discuss. Otherwise I will lost count who is in.
I am starting to work on the logistic side. I think you can contribute a lot if we go to Vegas. See details in my post !
Proposal for Q2 Celebration and beyond; Invitation for Julian Cox!!!
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Never mind. Now that all the different conversations on this topic in various threads have been combined (thanks to NigelM and Robert.Boston), I see that he did say he'd be there.
Party on!
Party on!
Thanks Nigel and Robert! I am guilty spamming as charged.
Guys and gals, let's communicate via this thread so I don't commit further spamming.
Somehow on desktop I don't see the last few replies, including Bonnie's. I am replying this on iphone via tapatalk.
-------------------------------------------
ok I see all messages on the desktop as well now.
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I should add some clarification to the event:
1. It is a party. For those longs who hold till this day and if the performance criteria is hit, we should feel good.
2. The investment discussion is focus on Tesla's competitiveness, strategic advantages, long term view of revolutionizing the car industry, battery technology etc. Pretty much everything along with Julian's article on SA:
On Elon Musk And Tesla Motors: The Art Of Modern Warfare In A Noble Cause
It is not mean to give you trading advice to make you money right away, or to make up the cost of the trip. It will be the wrong mind set and you may end up losing money.
1. It is a party. For those longs who hold till this day and if the performance criteria is hit, we should feel good.
2. The investment discussion is focus on Tesla's competitiveness, strategic advantages, long term view of revolutionizing the car industry, battery technology etc. Pretty much everything along with Julian's article on SA:
On Elon Musk And Tesla Motors: The Art Of Modern Warfare In A Noble Cause
It is not mean to give you trading advice to make you money right away, or to make up the cost of the trip. It will be the wrong mind set and you may end up losing money.
I made a correction in the original post:
--------------------------correction-----------------------------
Performance Criteria:
1. Tesla Q2 earning has a $.02 profit on a GAAP basis (previously was mistakenly stated as non-GAAP, in any case, I mean the more restricted way of reporting);
2. ...
I have received enough interest so the only pending factor is for the criteria to be met. Then we go party!
I have more details nailed down on the Google Doc:
Tesla Q2 celebration - Google Drive
--------------------------correction-----------------------------
Performance Criteria:
1. Tesla Q2 earning has a $.02 profit on a GAAP basis (previously was mistakenly stated as non-GAAP, in any case, I mean the more restricted way of reporting);
2. ...
I have received enough interest so the only pending factor is for the criteria to be met. Then we go party!
I have more details nailed down on the Google Doc:
Tesla Q2 celebration - Google Drive
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Hi Sleepyhaed,
When will you model? Why not now?
On the $.20 EPS, is it gaap or non-gaap?
Hi Sleepyhaed,
When will you model? Why not now?
On the $.20 EPS, is it gaap or non-gaap?
My EPS number was non-gaap, since you originally mentioned a $0.02 non-gaap threshold to throw this party. That is why I said that you might as well throw the party today, because they will certainly be profitable on non-gaap basis. On a GAAP basis it is a little more questionable, but I am fairly certain that they will be profitable on GAAP basis as well.
As far as Q2 earnings model goes, I wanted to write up a research report along with the model so that it all makes sense. I have the idea in my head but it is going to take many hours to do so. I just had some remodeling done at my house this past week so I couldn't work on this at all. This week I will be gone a little on vacation, so I won't get it done till next weekend and post it here probably on Monday before earnings.
My car also broke down and I got a brand new Model S today, unfortunately it is a Nissan Leaf Model S haha! It is my first EV and it is awesome. My wife had a really good deal on the car through her work and I didn't feel like putting money into repairing my old ICE car. I got the Leaf for no money down, and $199/month for 24 months. I calculated that with gas savings, this car is almost free. I didn't mention the deal we had and without the deal the dealership tried to sell me the 24 month lease for $149/month and $6,000 down.
I spent 8 hours at the dealership today to get my car; it sucked really bad! The no dealership model is going to be a huge competitive edge for Tesla. What annoys even more than waiting 8 hours for the car, is when the dealers play their "how much a month do you want to pay game" and then tack on $X,000 to your down payment in order to meet your monthly goal. I am really good with math/numbers/finance and these things annoy the heck out of me because I can immediately estimate the NPV of the deal in my head, and know that I am getting screwed.
Me: "How much does the car cost?"
Dealer: "Well, how much do you want to pay per month?"
:cursing:
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As Rick Perry would say, "oops..."
I corrected it in my post, thanks for pointing it out. The no dealership model is HUGE! I was at the dealership thinking about Tesla and how much it sucks to be sitting here waiting for 8 hours. Even at one point in time during the whole process as they were describing the Leaf, one of the sales associates said to me "this is no Tesla" haha.
Another reason for the delay in the TSLA report is that I have a quick idea that I wanted to write about SPWR first.
Yeah, the direct sales model is worthy of its own thread. in 3 years you will see this article on Motley fool/SA: "The real secret to Tesla's success? It's direct sales model!" excerpt: "...it seems obvious in hindsight that consumers never liked the dealership model, and the the existing automakers could not break out of the grip of the system. It's clear now, Tesla could have sold an *average* car and provided better customer experiences and enjoyed higher margins, just by breaking out of the dealership model. This is just one reason why they have an $80B market cap..."
I guess I should start writing it...
I guess I should start writing it...
After reading Sleepyhead's nightmare of 8 hours at the dealer and I compare that to what a pleasure buying my Model S, I doubt I will ever walk into a dealership again (not to mention any gas stations).
Just today, I was observing a gas station full of people with these hoses sticking into their cars and standing around looking like they couldn't wait to get out of there. It looked to me like some archaic ritual, like some ritual to the gas gods. Just seemed like a strange thing for people to be doing.
Just today, I was observing a gas station full of people with these hoses sticking into their cars and standing around looking like they couldn't wait to get out of there. It looked to me like some archaic ritual, like some ritual to the gas gods. Just seemed like a strange thing for people to be doing.
Yeah my bad. I really mean $0.02 GAAP profit as a criterion for the party. I've corrected in the original post. I've yet to see any detailed modeling on that for Q2.
We are already at $135, ATH. Does it occur to anyone of that the price leg(#2) of performance criteria could be hit even before the earning??? I am speechless to witness such sheer power of TSLA. The stock is like the car itself, it crushes any competition and resistance like the Soviet hockey team!!
Personally I think the performance criteria should be solely based on stock price because I think that GAAP earnings are difficult to predict and won't represent how good the earnings report is.
Also, I think there's a chance it might take a couple days for the price to peak after earnings.
So, the performance criteria IMO should be:
- TSLA stock price reaches in intraday high of $160 by the end of the 3rd day after Q2 earnings.
I almost certainly can't go, but why have any criteria for the party other than, "Who wants to come to a TSLA focused party?" If you committed to a date and place now, I think you'd get many more people. My .00014856633487 of a share's worth (@134.62)
stephenpace
VIN S00219
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