Fact is they don't know and it's not relevant. It will be 2020 before the first drive trains come off warranty. I suspect answer will change. Not as optimistic as fengshui, but I suspect core credit will mitigate cost.
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- Thread starter dandurston
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No way to know for sure if that is the case since we do not have access to Tesla's part replacement data. But based on posts to TMC that does seem possible. Battery replacements seem rare. I think drive train replacements are also uncommon.
People with a problem post about it. People without a problem rarely post "Another day with no problems, car is fine."
And if they did, it would drive us NUTS!!!! Just like posting: "I did not get the firmware update yet", only more so. Almost as much as people harping on a problem or perceived slight over and over and over again, as if we didn't read it the first time.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
There are threads I avoid because of this. Enough already. Even worse when the poster starts repeating the complaint in every thread they visit. WE HEARD YOU.
breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
19 out of 20 of the top 20 highest mileage drivers reported on Plug in America have had their drive unit swapped at least once. many of them 2 or 3 times. Plug In America so basically minimum 95% failure rate but if your counting multiple swaps per car its more like 99% failure rate. that is NOT GOOD.
If that percentage was anywhere near accurate for all Model S produced to date the company would be defunct. It would be impossible to hide it. That small sample is clearly not representative. Likely heavily biased towards early production since those are high mileage cars.
This is getting to a point where it belongs in a drivetrain thread, but I feel as if I need to respond. I agree with all of evidence in your post except have a hard time concurring with the NOT GOOD pronouncement without more information... I actually draw a different conclusion.
I believe the VAST majority of drivetrain replacements have been either proactive by Tesla HQ, proactive by Tesla SC, or at owner's request. Based on what I've seen posted, it seems very FEW are due to on the road failure. I believe it is fair to say that ALL have been covered by warranty.
One of the great things about Tesla's direct sales/service model is they CAN do things differently. For example, centralize repair of a complex component to minimize training costs, maximize quality, and accelerate the feedback loop into design.
IMHO, this only descends into NOT GOOD territory if either a) the frequency of on-road failures increases precipitously, b) Tesla's earnings take a material hit due to costs of warranty drivetrain repairs, or c) they don't produce a more bulletproof unit prior to 2020 when the first drivetrains come off warranty.
Right now, I think it actually is GOOD, not NOT GOOD. Nobody has ever deployed this volume of electric drivetrains on a billion + mile fleet. The fact that on-road failure is rare (especially given the every-minute temptation to mash it in this car) is GOOD. If anyone thought Tesla was going to come off the line with the first mass produced, high performance, long range EV without some ongoing tweaking, they were optimistic. It's amazing to me that there has been so little.
brucet999
Active Member
That settles it. I'm going to wait until they get everything just perfect…with autonomous driving too, since I'll be about 98 years old by then.
To second Bonnie here, and to set some context -- I'm one of those people with a drive unit replacement.
First and foremost, this issue seems to come up (and has) for more than year on these forums. As the old adage says, "there's nothing to see here, move on."
Look, I'm an early adopter. I have a low VIN number. Innovation is messy. I suspect the majority of us suspect that on some level, which is why we are here. We like to be on the edge of change and drive it. We want to transform the driving experience for those that don't live on the edge, and make it the norm.
I'm not expecting perfection, but appreciate that Tesla strives for it. I will also go on record that they have gone WAY out of there way to treat me right as a customer. I have ZERO complaints about the service, follow-up, and professionalism of the team. Tesla often notes issues (based on data, which I appreciate) and keeps me on the road with no disruption of time. The one time I had an issue the calvary came -- quite literally, and I had a sum inconvenience of 30 minutes.
So turning back to my drive unit, was I concerned? No. It's a new vehicle. Tesla is experimenting with technology, bringing it to the mass market, and continuously improving it. Unlike any ICE vehicle I've owned, they keep making my car better, long after Elon Musk handed me the keys in 2012. (Yes, I have pictures.)
So here's my thought: rather than assume the Company is going to not treat it's customers the right way -- when they demonstrate tirelessly the opposite -- how about we trust awesome engineering and let them do their job? I have 100% faith and trust in their follow-through, and I'd encourage all of us to do the same.
Lex
Member
Well said.
So like how about that new 70 RWD model eh ? :tongue: and P90D ... I configured one yesterday that was over CAD$150k but if I was swimming in cash of course I'd get back in line :love:
So like how about that new 70 RWD model eh ? :tongue: and P90D ... I configured one yesterday that was over CAD$150k but if I was swimming in cash of course I'd get back in line :love:
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