Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

2020 was blown due to COVID. No vaccines for the general public by Dec 2020 and the COVID situation was bad in So Cal. I remember it and passed on doing a road trip to So Cal in Dec 2020 because of no vax for me yet and many places would be closed.

The below are examples of some mitigations that Tesla did to avoid long lines in busy travel corridors by spreading out usage:

Tesla is giving away free charging so Superchargers don't get slammed during the Thanksgiving travel rush

Tesla wants to avoid long, frustrating lines at its Superchargers by letting owners charge up for free overnight and in the early morning.

www.businessinsider.com

- Nov 2021

Tesla rewarding timely holiday travelers with free supercharging

Holiday travelers get free Tesla charging in some areas.

www.theverge.com

- Dec 2021

Tesla offers free Supercharging to encourage off-peak charging during travels for holidays

Tesla is offering free Supercharging during off-peak hours at select locations during the 4th of July weekend to help with...

electrek.co

- July 2022

Tesla launches free Thanksgiving Supercharger rates for off-peak hours

Tesla is offering free Supercharging in select U.S. locations as Thanksgiving nears. Owners are encouraged to charge during off-peak hours.

www.teslarati.com

- Nov 2022

As I said, others can do something similar, but that only goes so far.

Yes, but on the other hand, again, the 2019 Thanksgiving queues were largely a special case of a combination of weather and, at the time, a weakness on US-101. There hasn't been any major news of queues since then without there also being other specific problems. And there are more Teslas than other EVs and Tesla owners trust the network so are more likely to use it.

Update: As for "Supercharger network doesn't magically solve things, but it will make a _huge_ difference, because (1) it works", sure it works great with Teslas. But, I really do wonder once it opens up more and they have to talk CCS to a huge # of vehicles that are moving targets (with new models and updates to them coming out) if it'll be just another case of "grass is greener on the other side".

There are numerous reports of "Magic Dock" being hit or miss like these:

So... can I charge my Bolt at a Tesla Super charger???

www.chevybolt.org

Two adapters.

www.chevybolt.org

Two adapters.

www.chevybolt.org

Charging on Tesla chargers?

www.chevybolt.org

EA (for instance) has an elaborate test lab, part of which is to test compatibility with vehicles:

Electrify America Talks Charging Network Problems, Has Solutions

We sit down with Electrify America's CEO Giovanni Palazzo and COO Brendan Jones to discuss the network's problems, and how they plan to correct them.

insideevs.com

https://www.media.electrifyamerica.com/en-us/releases/171

Someone is going to have to do similar hard work.

Tesla has opened up a lot of Superchargers in a lot of countries around the world and have a lot of different makes and models using the Superchargers. People in Europe have relied on the Supercharger capacity to avoid charging queues during busy travel periods. There have been some issues of incompatibility, but it's not been a major problem at all. This isn't a new thing to Tesla.

In fact, it would make sense that manufacturers themselves will also want to test their cars against the best network in North America, as well as other major networks, to ensure compatibility. I don't see this as a significant problem at all. To be honest, I think there are some people who are hoping it will be a problem and they'll be disappointed.

For what it's worth, I've charged my Kona at a Supercharger with Magic Dock (same site, same stall twice). The first time it worked first time, the second time it took 2 attempts. I've had some problems initiating charges on CCS chargers as well, so could just be me or my car.

 

[cwerdna]

Tesla has opened up a lot of Superchargers in a lot of countries around the world and have a lot of different makes and models using the Superchargers.

Sure.

People in Europe have relied on the Supercharger capacity to avoid charging queues during busy travel periods. There have been some issues of incompatibility, but it's not been a major problem at all.

I don't know how true this is or not. The top selling BEVs in Europe are quite different than what's in the US. Numerous BEV makes and models in Europe simply don't exist in the US (e.g. no Renault, MG, BYD, Nio, Skoda, Dacia, GWM ORA UK - Smiles for Miles, Cupra, Zeekr, etc.) Stellantis (formerly FCA) hasn't had a BEV for sale in the US for years (ever since the gen 1 Fiat 500e was discontinued) yet they sold 288K BEVs globally in 2022 (Stellantis Delivers Record Full Year 2022 Results; Global BEV Sales Up 41%. Progressing Fast on Dare Forward 2030 Execution).

Just a quick search turned up cases like these:

Problem charging at Tesla Supercharger due to bad fit w...

www.polestar-forum.com

Has Anyone Charged At a Tesla Supercharger

www.kiaevforums.com

Has Anyone Charged At a Tesla Supercharger - too bad they didn't use the correct units nor did the person who replied.

In fact, it would make sense that manufacturers themselves will also want to test their cars against the best network in North America, as well as other major networks, to ensure compatibility.

I'm sure they do, but there are always future products in development in addition to possible updates on the car side and on the station side. The latter can be moving targets. It's very clear that what's on DC FCs isn't set in stone nor is the hardware.

 

[David_Cary]

Thanksgiving will be tough ... forever. Just like traffic is tough and airports are tough. If it wasn't tough, more people would travel longer.
EV charging is expensive to build for the absolute peak use. And I don't think the will is there. At different points in my life, it was nice to say - too much traffic or plane tickets too expensive. Now I can add in - their will probably be a wait for a charge.

Truth be told, I don't have any family in driving distance over the range and haven't for decades. Mostly I liked the excuse when it was 450 miles - I didn't want to do that for 4 days.

I know this thing (Thanksgiving) means a lot to people but at some point things aren't practical. Realize of course that you are celebrating the beginning of one of the worst things our country has ever done. It makes very little sense to drive over 8 hours for 4 days. Most Tesla's (and newer EVs) can drive 5 hours pretty comfortably - especially in a bit of traffic.

Wouldn't it be ironic if concern about Thanksgiving day driving (renamed to massacre day?) would be what kept us using more FF per capita than almost every other country? We could call it Massacre-Squared Day.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Sure.

I don't know how true this is or not. The top selling BEVs in Europe are quite different than what's in the US. Numerous BEV makes and models in Europe simply don't exist in the US (e.g. no Renault, MG, BYD, Nio, Skoda, Dacia, GWM ORA UK - Smiles for Miles, Cupra, Zeekr, etc.) Stellantis (formerly FCA) hasn't had a BEV for sale in the US for years (ever since the gen 1 Fiat 500e was discontinued) yet they sold 288K BEVs globally in 2022 (Stellantis Delivers Record Full Year 2022 Results; Global BEV Sales Up 41%. Progressing Fast on Dare Forward 2030 Execution).

Just a quick search turned up cases like these:

Problem charging at Tesla Supercharger due to bad fit w...

www.polestar-forum.com

Has Anyone Charged At a Tesla Supercharger

www.kiaevforums.com

Has Anyone Charged At a Tesla Supercharger - too bad they didn't use the correct units nor did the person who replied.


I'm sure they do, but there are always future products in development in addition to possible updates on the car side and on the station side. The latter can be moving targets. It's very clear that what's on DC FCs isn't set in stone nor is the hardware.

HyunKia's compatibility issues had been known for a while, with only 42kW rates.

However, it appears that it was resolved in August 2023 so now people are getting 96kW, which is much closer to their cars' 105kW 400V limits.

Ioniq 5 charging at Tesla Supercharger

Tested out the Tesla Supercharger at Eidsvoll, Nebbenes in Norway today. There are 44 stalls here, upto 150kWh Deciding how to park was the biggest challenge, I reversed in to the stall but as it was near empty I could have driven in the “wrong way”. Starting the charging is done with the app...

www.ioniqforum.com

Charged my EV6 at Tesla supercharger today

Just an FYI … had no issues with first time charging at a Tesla Supercharger today. This station is one of only two in California that is available to non Tesla EVs. The only rub was charge port on the opposite side but creative parking on the end stall worked out without blocking other spaces...

www.kiaevforums.com

 

[fhteagle]

Seems like a lot of people picked 2030, I assume because it's a round number?

Looks to me as if BEV sales percentage is still increasing at well less than 1% of new car sales total per quarter. Even if that goes up to a full 1% per quarter, we're still ten years away from 50%.

50% - 8% = 42%, ÷ 1% per quarter is 10.5 years to 50%.

I think we're at the trail end of the exponential hockey stick upwards part of the adoption S curve, almost to the flat-ish mid section. Poorly implemented charging infrastructure (multiple plug types, unreliable stations, gaps between stations) is probably the biggest limiting factor at this point, but followed closely by legacy OEMs ineptitude in bringing competitive capability and priced options to market. Fix one or both of those and we'll make it to 50% a bit sooner. I want to be bullish on EVs, but being pragmatic about the state of the industry it's still far from what it could be.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Seems like a lot of people picked 2030, I assume because it's a round number?

Looks to me as if BEV sales percentage is still increasing at well less than 1% of new car sales total per quarter. Even if that goes up to a full 1% per quarter, we're still ten years away from 50%.

50% - 8% = 42%, ÷ 1% per quarter is 10.5 years to 50%.

I think we're at the trail end of the exponential hockey stick upwards part of the adoption S curve, almost to the flat-ish mid section. Poorly implemented charging infrastructure (multiple plug types, unreliable stations, gaps between stations) is probably the biggest limiting factor at this point, but followed closely by legacy OEMs ineptitude in bringing competitive capability and priced options to market. Fix one or both of those and we'll make it to 50% a bit sooner. I want to be bullish on EVs, but being pragmatic about the state of the industry it's still far from what it could be.

I think people picked 2030 in part because round but also because 2024/2025 was expected to be a watershed on cost and production.

Since the poll there's been COVID disruption and major geopolitical shifts that could hinder growth. Or maybe it won't matter because Chinese companies will have built factories in Mexico to circumvent US tariffs by then, and consumers won't care.

People might also not have expected CCS charging in the USA to still suck.

 

[cwerdna]

Teslas are the only EVs taking off in America, Mazda CEO says - Autoblog

Mazda CEO Masahiro Moro told Fortune that consumers are still not sold on electric vehicles, with EVs making up just a fraction of the US market.

www.autoblog.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Teslas are the only EVs taking off in America, Mazda CEO says - Autoblog

Mazda CEO Masahiro Moro told Fortune that consumers are still not sold on electric vehicles, with EVs making up just a fraction of the US market.

www.autoblog.com

I mean, what's a Mazda CEO to say? "Yeah, sorry about the MX-30 BEV and sorry that the PHEV isn't going to be as exciting as you'd hoped."

Those other EVs that aren't taking off now make up half of the US market. Based on Registrations, not "sales".

 

[cwerdna]

Thanks to SO16 in another thread for

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729584128310264246

in another thread. https://archive.is/ybm3q has a copy if you get hit by a paywall. From the article:
"Mary Rice, dealer principal at Toyota of Greensboro in North Carolina, was an early signer on the letter, which she said echoed many of her concerns about EV inventories being high and customer demand being low.

"We can't sell the two or three we have on our lot right now. How are we going to sell it when its 80 percent of our mix?" she said in an interview.

Rather, hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles have been an easier sell to customers who want to be "greener," Rice said.

"In this area, the oldest Prius in all five states is seven days old," she said of her store's region, which covers North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Florida. "As of yesterday, the oldest bZ4X is 266 days old.""

I can see numerous SF Bay Area dealers on the signatory list, keeping in mind that the area is one of the strongest EV markets in the US. The Polestar dealers being on the list does raise eyebrows.

 

[cwerdna]

Interesting that I have a brother on the far left of the political spectrum (big Bernie fan!) who has yet to go electric. And also for the same reason, he's just plain cheap. I have found that to be true when talking with people of all persuasions. The conservatives tend to actually take the environmental issue a little more seriously, they actually are willing to do something about it, if they're convinced it's real.

TIL of Sens. Cruz, Crapo, Ricketts Introduce Legislation to Halt Biden Electric Vehicles Mandate | U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Over 2 dozen Republicans joined to introduce the above legislation.

 

[E90alex]

"As of yesterday, the oldest bZ4X is 266 days old."

Because the bz4x is an expensive pile of crap.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Because the bz4x is an expensive pile of crap.

Indeed, unless you get a lease where they're giving you the incentive, the bZ4X has no tax credit.

By price the bZ4X is one of the cheaper of the plethora of compact crossover EVs. $45k for AWD.

With a lease it could be OK for price as long as:
- They pass on the credit.
- You're not planning to do any long trips in it.
- You don't want one-pedal driving.

I'd love to see the price and spec of that sitting bZ4X.

 

[David_Cary]

Indeed, unless you get a lease where they're giving you the incentive, the bZ4X has no tax credit.

By price the bZ4X is one of the cheaper of the plethora of compact crossover EVs. $45k for AWD.

With a lease it could be OK for price as long as:
- They pass on the credit.
- You're not planning to do any long trips in it.
- You don't want one-pedal driving.

I'd love to see the price and spec of that sitting bZ4X.

Its FWD, 240 mile range and costs $50k. And wow is the first pic really ugly - I thought it was in a front end collision. It has an amazing JBL 9 speaker audio system. That is comical - I mean who would buy such a thing when a better Tesla is $6k cheaper....

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Its FWD, 240 mile range and costs $50k. And wow is the first pic really ugly - I thought it was in a front end collision. It has an amazing JBL 9 speaker audio system. That is comical - I mean who would buy such a thing when a better Tesla is $6k cheaper....

Ah, it's an XLE Limited with the JBL option and maybe the split roof rear spoiler.
That's going to lose hard to the competition.

Not sure of all the difference in options but $46k for XLE AWD + Weather package (heated front seats and steering wheel).

2023 Toyota bZ4X Full Specs | Toyota.com

Visit the official Toyota website to check out the full specs of the 2023 BZ4X to see everything this unique BEV offers you for an exciting driving experience.

www.toyota.com

Key differences between XLE and LImited, for $4,700 extra ($4,200 v XLE with heated front seats and steering wheel):
- Multi-LED headlights v XLE Bi-LED (whatever that means...)
- 2-tone exterior color
- heated and ventilated front seats and steering wheel (+$500 for XLE heated only seats and heated steering wheel)
- mirror is Homelink
- backup camera dynamic gridlines
- 360* overhead view, curb view
- front and rear ambient lighting
- 8-way power adjustable driver seat with lumbar support (v 6-way manual)
- Power rear liftgate with kick sensor
- 20" wheels (v XLE 18")****
- Digital key option (with Remote Connect, 3 years free, $80/year or $8/month after at current prices)
Also
- Option: $200 split roof rear spoiler
- Option: $350 heated rear seats radiant leg and foot heaters
- Option: $930 JBL stereo + includes the $350 option above

I mean, there's some good things in there, but $4,200 good?

**** They treat it like it's a _good_ thing

 

[cwerdna]

BTW, regarding new vs. used cars or whatever, I've seen survey results like these and it's been going on for years:
Most Americans Lack Reserve Cash to Cover $500 Emergency: Survey - from 2016

From 2023:
Nearly Half of Americans Have Less Than $500 in Savings — Here’s How You Can Beat That Trend
Bankrate's Annual Emergency Fund Report | Bankrate
63% of workers unable to pay a $500 emergency expense, survey finds. How employers may help change that

Yet despite all this, 13+ million new automobiles are sold (a decent % of them leased) each year in the US.

Back to the affordability factor and cost premium, was today watching

. At 4:02, they mention that the average American consumer has a $6K credit card balance, $400 to 600 monthly student loan payment + high rent and car loan payments.

And there's 25% of Americans still have holiday debt from last year: 'If you're in a hole, stop digging,' says money expert.

 

[SDRick]

I would like to see some participants of this thread consider taking a page out of Shark Tank. The Sharks often make a statement or opinion followed by "and for those reasons I'm out".

Similarly, after posting an opinion or a link, this thread may benefit by an occasional," and for those reasons" I believe we will will exceed 50% of new car sales in the year xxxx.

Just a thought.

 

[cwerdna]

I don't think I've ever watched an entire segment of Shark Tank (from pitch beginning to decision at the end).

For me, I don't have a specific year (too hard to pin down) but I still stand by my vote of after 2040. And, if a certain person is re-elected President about a year from now, it will be a significant setback and push whatever the year is out further.

 

[henderrj]

I don't think I've ever watched an entire segment of Shark Tank (from pitch beginning to decision at the end).

For me, I don't have a specific year (too hard to pin down) but I still stand by my vote of after 2040. And, if a certain person is re-elected President about a year from now, it will be a significant setback and push whatever the year is out further.

I couldn't disagree more. I think technology, rather than government pressure, will drive ev adoption. They are simply better vehicles. Better in usability, better in economy, better in technology, because they are, for the most part, all newly designed vehicles.

Add to that the knowledge that you are in fact helping your grandchildren's grandchildren to have a better life, and I think people will be easily swayed over once they understand. Each new EV sold is 10 to 20 more people getting exposed to the idea, and the advantages. The growth could be exponential. Unfortunately, the battery supply will not be able to keep up. And that will not be a 100% pure effort, to be sure. But still better than spewing out fumes from every single vehicle that you drive on the road. Not to mention the super old foundry factories that are creating all of those ice engines. Again, new development means new, more efficient, less polluting, factories.

My optimistic guess of 2027, when this thread first started, is looking difficult. Not because I think the people couldn't be swayed, but because I don't think the battery supply is going to make it. Additionally, most of the long-term vehicle manufacturers are not willing to sacrifice the profits necessary to make the EV switch. It is not inexpensive! So, we have that inertia of companies operations that has to be overcome. It may mean that those companies have to go out of business and the new ones, like Tesla and Rivian and others, have to take over.

 

[henderrj]

@h2ofun, with what do you disagree?

 

[h2ofun]

I couldn't disagree more. I think technology, rather than government pressure, will drive ev adoption. They are simply better vehicles. Better in usability, better in economy, better in technology, because they are, for the most part, all newly designed vehicles.

Add to that the knowledge that you are in fact helping your grandchildren's grandchildren to have a better life, and I think people will be easily swayed over once they understand. Each new EV sold is 10 to 20 more people getting exposed to the idea, and the advantages. The growth could be exponential. Unfortunately, the battery supply will not be able to keep up. And that will not be a 100% pure effort, to be sure. But still better than spewing out fumes from every single vehicle that you drive on the road. Not to mention the super old foundry factories that are creating all of those ice engines. Again, new development means new, more efficient, less polluting, factories.

My optimistic guess of 2027, when this thread first started, is looking difficult. Not because I think the people couldn't be swayed, but because I don't think the battery supply is going to make it. Additionally, most of the long-term vehicle manufacturers are not willing to sacrifice the profits necessary to make the EV switch. It is not inexpensive! So, we have that inertia of companies operations that has to be overcome. It may mean that those companies have to go out of business and the new ones, like Tesla and Rivian and others, have to take over.

I do not agree with this the sky is falling, we have to save the kids. EV's, as built today, are junk to the world. Something else will come along, but it will not be via batteries as we know them today, IMO.