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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
- Start date
Isnt the loophole for non IRA compliant purchases via a lease, still get them credit?
Heard that HKG was pushing that hard.
Jan with the point of sale instant credit, it will get dicey for non IRA compliant vehicles regardless of leases. Dealers and Tesla will be able to advertise immediate price reductions.
Could cause drastic slow down of IRA compliant vehicles purchases Nov/Dec and then an explosion in Jan.
Will be interesting to watch.
Yes. There is a commercial lease loophole that can be used on any EV or PHEV even though it's not assembled in North America and/or doesn't meet the critical minerals or battery components requirements. There are numerous stories on Automakers find a tax credit loophole to increase EV leasing and boost sales. But it's up to the automaker/leasing arm as to how much to pass on that to the consumer. It can be $0.
Unfortunately, some automakers don't let you buy out your leased vehicle early nor at lease end...
Hertz slows Tesla and EV plans, citing collision repair costs
High collision repair costs weren't enough to offset the lower running costs of EVs, as Hertz balks at putting the initial 100,000 Teslas already announced into service.
My view after two collisions claims, certified Tesla body shop exclusivity, either theirs or authorized by Tesla, has driven up the costs
Climbing demand and low supply
High cost
With ICE, less exclusive and wide availability of experienced body shops, costs are are lower
Level or dropping demand and fixed supply
Low cost
It’s not truly an EV issue, more of a too few experienced Tesla body shop resources available issue
As the Tesla population of vehicles climb, hopefully more tesla certified body shops will drive the costs down
Climbing demand and low supply
High cost
With ICE, less exclusive and wide availability of experienced body shops, costs are are lower
Level or dropping demand and fixed supply
Low cost
It’s not truly an EV issue, more of a too few experienced Tesla body shop resources available issue
As the Tesla population of vehicles climb, hopefully more tesla certified body shops will drive the costs down
The Three Types of People Least-Likely to Buy an Electric Car
In the midst of a sweeping electric vehicle (EV) revolution in the United States, there are distinct groups of people who remain least likely to embrace this transformation as their next automotive choice.
www.autoguide.com
Comment in article claims converting 25% of fleet to EV will require 176 TeraWatts of electricity per year but then says US only produces 4 Tera Watts a year. Wikipedia lists US production as 4,000 Tera Watts per year. Maybe he’s thinking European where they use a comma as a decimal point or else just FUDing on purpose. The other thing people don’t understand is that the most important factor for the grid is the peak load, not the total amount of electricity used. As long as most EV’s don’t charge during the peak evening hours, it will not be that much of an issue and will actually help costs by increasing grid utilization.The Three Types of People Least-Likely to Buy an Electric Car
In the midst of a sweeping electric vehicle (EV) revolution in the United States, there are distinct groups of people who remain least likely to embrace this transformation as their next automotive choice.
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
The US produces ~4,000TWh/yr from ~1TW of generation. Converting 100% of ground transportation will require ~1,000TWh/yr, which can very, VERY easily be produced off-peak. Simple math 1TW (24)(365) = 8760TWh/yr. So we just need to increase the capacity factor by ~25%. Most of those generators have a CF of only ~20%.
It's incredible this is so often over looked. EVs are far more likely to REDUCE the cost of electricity in the same way full airplanes reduce the cost of airfare.
EV Makers Turn to Discounts to Combat Waning Demand suggests basically that too and is contains part of what I've been saying all along:
"Dealers say part of the problem is that a wealthier group of early EV adopters have already purchased a vehicle. Now, the industry is confronting a more reticent group of consumers, who are already being squeezed by high interest rates and rising costs.
“I think there was a miscalculation about demand and how much EVs would be coveted,” said Joseph Yoon, an Edmunds analyst.
Electric vehicles are now some of the slowest sellers on dealership lots. In September, it took retailers over two months to sell an EV, compared with around a month for gas-powered vehicles and only three weeks for a gas-electric hybrid, according to data from Edmunds."
https://archive.is/evyKV is a copy if you get hit by a paywall.
henderrj
Active Member
I don't think Dealers are a particularly great way to determine sellubility of EVs. Yes, most people still buy through them, but they have a vested interest in not selling them. Lower service. They all know enough to know that now. Additionally, the major brands just don't have the price to performance capability that Tesla does. So it's pretty hard to compete. Kia Hyundai seems to be doing pretty well though.
Tesla has reached that level that everything can be reduced in cost by Mass production. Nobody else is selling that number of EVS in the us, with the possible exception of Hyundai kia. So, they have to go through the pain of developing their volume until it is cost effective. If you don't have the batteries available, there's no point in building the bodies. Until their battery factories come online, I don't see why any manufacturer would make evs!
Ford to scale back plans for $3.5 billion Michigan battery plant as EV demand disappoints, labor costs rise
Ford is scaling back production capacity and expected employment at the battery plant in Michigan.
www.cnbc.com
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Too bad the report at https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-conte...y-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf from bottom of Another Quarter, Another Record: EV Sales in the U.S. Surpass 300,000 in Q3, as Tesla Share of EV Segment Tumbles to 50% - Cox Automotive Inc. doesn't have the actual automakers grouped together (e.g. VW Group would include Audi. Porsche and VW brand; Volvo and Polestar should be lumped together; various GM brands should be lumped together, etc.)Ford to scale back plans for $3.5 billion Michigan battery plant as EV demand disappoints, labor costs rise
Ford is scaling back production capacity and expected employment at the battery plant in Michigan.
At the bottom I thought they'd lumped Hyundai and Kia into Hyundia, but it's just a typo.
| Q3 Sales | YTD | Share | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | 2023 | 2022 | YOY | 2023 | 2022 | YOY | Q3 | YTD |
| BMW | 13,595 | 5,470 | 148.5% | 32,823 | 10,840 | 202.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| Daimler | 10,423 | 2,717 | 283.6% | 29,686 | 6,767 | 338.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Fisker | 997 | 0.0% | 997 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||
| Ford | 20,962 | 18,257 | 14.8% | 46,671 | 41,236 | 13.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% |
| Geely | 7,797 | 3,394 | 129.7% | 20,620 | 11,311 | 82.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| GM | 20,092 | 15,156 | 32.6% | 56,414 | 22,985 | 145.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
| HyunKia | 30,757 | 12,295 | 150.2% | 68,548 | 50,328 | 36.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% |
| JLR | 86 | 22 | 290.9% | 219 | 290 | -24.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucid | 1,618 | 654 | 147.4% | 4,588 | 1,596 | 187.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Mazda | 34 | 8 | 325.0% | 100 | 324 | -69.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nissan | 6,074 | 1,276 | 376.0% | 15,503 | 8,898 | 74.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Rivian | 15,564 | 6,884 | 126.1% | 36,636 | 12,578 | 191.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% |
| Tesla | 156,621 | 131,024 | 19.5% | 493,513 | 390,814 | 26.3% | 50.0% | 56.5% |
| Toyota+ | 7,012 | 0.0% | 14,760 | 232 | 6262.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | |
| VAG | 20,295 | 11,873 | 70.9% | 49,995 | 28,766 | 73.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% |
| Vinfast | 1,159 | 0.0% | 2,009 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
| Total | 313,086 | 209,030 | 49.8% | 873,082 | 586,965 | 48.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Hope these aren't reposts:
fortune.com
"Electric vehicle sales are expected to hit a record 9% of all passenger vehicles in the U.S. this year, according to Atlas Public Policy. That will be up from 7.3% of new car sales in 2022."
"Cox predicts EVs will account for 8%-9% of U.S. auto sales for 2023."
The Cox (for the US) report I pointed to earlier says in part:
"Electric vehicle sales accounted for 7.9% of total industry sales in Q3, a record and up from 6.1% a year ago and 7.2% in Q2."
EV sales expected to hit new U.S. record in 2023—but Germany, China and Norway still lead the way
Several factors helped boost U.S. EV adoption this year.
"Cox predicts EVs will account for 8%-9% of U.S. auto sales for 2023."
The Cox (for the US) report I pointed to earlier says in part:
"Electric vehicle sales accounted for 7.9% of total industry sales in Q3, a record and up from 6.1% a year ago and 7.2% in Q2."
I posted this over in chevybolt.org late last night but you'd need an account to see the post due to the forum it's in. It is California-specific and more specific to the travel between Nor Cal and So Cal (people taking highway 5 vs. 99) but it seems that now non-Tesla drivers are experiencing congestion on 5 during the holidays (not unlike what's happened with Tesla Superchargers in years past).
For me, having traveled between Nor Cal and So Cal in my non-Tesla EV, it's been fine but I don't go during Thanksgiving and I've taken 99 and once I took 101 back due to sightseeing in Santa Barbara, Solvang, Hearst Castle with a stay in Lompoc.
This is just a canary in the coal mine for the rest of the US, esp. w/lots of of the US being charging deserts.
-- begin --
I'm not on an road trip for Thanksgiving but there are definitely reports on I-5 between Nor Cal and So Cal of long lines. I don't take I-5 ever with my (non-Tesla) EVs anyway due to lack of redundancy, 99 is a MUCH better choice.
I'm guessing highway 99 charging congestion won't be as bad but since I'm not on the road, it's only an educated guess.
Take a look at these I-5 examples and their check-ins around Thanksgiving:
https://www.plugshare.com/location/198229 - a Jimbo in there had no idea that the dual handle EA DC FCs can only have 1 car at a time charging.
https://www.plugshare.com/location/321832 - the reports of downed chargers doesn't help.
https://www.plugshare.com/location/209455 has two reports from the same guy:
"Waited 13 min as 3rd car in line. Probably 10 cars lined up when we finished"
"3rd in line waiting to charge here. Line is 5 total cars. Way better than Kettleman which had 40 "
I do wonder of the above people complaining, how many of them had any clue that they should've considered 99...
This is yet more ammo for California moves to accelerate to 100% new zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035 | California Air Resources Board being too aggressive. Only 20% of new light automobiles sold in CA by that point can be PHEV. The rest need to be ZEVs.
-- end --
For kicks, I looked at a bunch of highway 99 DC FCs last night and earlier today and saw no complaints about lines but admittedly, not many check-ins during this holiday either.
For me, having traveled between Nor Cal and So Cal in my non-Tesla EV, it's been fine but I don't go during Thanksgiving and I've taken 99 and once I took 101 back due to sightseeing in Santa Barbara, Solvang, Hearst Castle with a stay in Lompoc.
This is just a canary in the coal mine for the rest of the US, esp. w/lots of of the US being charging deserts.
-- begin --
I'm not on an road trip for Thanksgiving but there are definitely reports on I-5 between Nor Cal and So Cal of long lines. I don't take I-5 ever with my (non-Tesla) EVs anyway due to lack of redundancy, 99 is a MUCH better choice.
I'm guessing highway 99 charging congestion won't be as bad but since I'm not on the road, it's only an educated guess.
Take a look at these I-5 examples and their check-ins around Thanksgiving:
https://www.plugshare.com/location/198229 - a Jimbo in there had no idea that the dual handle EA DC FCs can only have 1 car at a time charging.
https://www.plugshare.com/location/321832 - the reports of downed chargers doesn't help.
https://www.plugshare.com/location/209455 has two reports from the same guy:
"Waited 13 min as 3rd car in line. Probably 10 cars lined up when we finished"
"3rd in line waiting to charge here. Line is 5 total cars. Way better than Kettleman which had 40 "
I do wonder of the above people complaining, how many of them had any clue that they should've considered 99...
This is yet more ammo for California moves to accelerate to 100% new zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035 | California Air Resources Board being too aggressive. Only 20% of new light automobiles sold in CA by that point can be PHEV. The rest need to be ZEVs.
-- end --
For kicks, I looked at a bunch of highway 99 DC FCs last night and earlier today and saw no complaints about lines but admittedly, not many check-ins during this holiday either.
Not a surprise given sales numbers. My July trip in my Kona I had waits at two 4-charger EA locations, Manchester, CT and Kittery, ME. In both cases there was a Bolt charging. It's annoying that they can't do power sharing across the two plugs, since Kona + Bolt aren't going to overload the charger.
At least come 2025, CCS EVs will find it a lot easier to charge, with adapters for the Supercharger network opening up many more locations. For a lot of the USA, things should also be helped by there being a bunch of NEVI chargers.
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Just because lots of BEVs will suddenly have access to Tesla's Supercharger network doesn't magically solve things. Now, the SC network will see traffic/usage from a growing set of vehicles that could never use them before.
I don't have a pointer to some of the crazy Supercharger waits before but Supercharger - Coalinga, CA (LIVE 15 Dec 2022, 80 stalls) has pointers to Thanksgiving 2019 videos. (Reported on 12/26/2015) 11+ car wait at Tejon Ranch! and (Reported on 12/26/2015) 11+ car wait at Tejon Ranch! were from 2015.
Of course, Tesla's taken numerous steps to mitigate (e.g. more stations, free charging at certain stations at night during holidays, fees, etc.) this but that eventually only goes so far. Other networks could follow suit but it's still the same problem. The installed base of BEVs in CA is still small vs. the total population of automobiles.
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For context, the Jimbo comment was the below from 11/21/23:
"Jimbo
Chevrolet Bolt EUV 2023
CCS/SAE
Half of the CCS plugs cannot be used due to lack of parking. This is because the machines with 2 CCS plugs only have one parking bay, so if one of the plugs is in use, the other cannot be accessed. How dumb is that??!!!"
EA's dual handle DC FCs (which is all of them before they started switching over to their next gen dispensers) do not allow both handles on a dispenser to be used at the same time. Their next gens are only 1 handle per dispenser...
As far NEVI, SCs opening up, future expansion, etc., will it really be enough on busy travel corridors on busy holidays?
"Jimbo
Chevrolet Bolt EUV 2023
CCS/SAE
Half of the CCS plugs cannot be used due to lack of parking. This is because the machines with 2 CCS plugs only have one parking bay, so if one of the plugs is in use, the other cannot be accessed. How dumb is that??!!!"
EA's dual handle DC FCs (which is all of them before they started switching over to their next gen dispensers) do not allow both handles on a dispenser to be used at the same time. Their next gens are only 1 handle per dispenser...
As far NEVI, SCs opening up, future expansion, etc., will it really be enough on busy travel corridors on busy holidays?
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Supercharger network doesn't magically solve things, but it will make a _huge_ difference, because (1) it works (2) there's a lot of it (3) the current volume of non-Tesla is significantly smaller than the volume of Teslas, and because (4) Tesla's model is to build with more stalls than power so there are lot of "coverage" Superchargers with spare capacity. The excess stalls will be particularly helpful to deal with the port position problem and when people are charging slow-charging other EVs like Bolts. If EA stations could power share, I'd have been able to pair up my Kona (max 200A) with a Bolt both times I've had a wait.
Christmas 2015 was _8_ years ago. Dieselgate broke September 2015. Electrify America was founded in February 2017. We've come a long way.
Thanksgiving 2019 was _4_ years ago. Thanksgiving 2019 was also a special case because I-5 was closed due to bad weather, forcing many more people onto US-101 that wouldn't normally have used it. I-5 was much better served, while US-101 had a large gap betwen Salinas and Atascadero, and Atascadero was old and slow and generally avoided, with people going to the newer larger, San Luis Obispo, which got overloaded.
Also worth noting is that V3 wasn't introduced until 2019, so most Superchargers were V2, which struggled more when busy. By the next Thanksgiving, Tesla had added V3s in Paso Robles and Gilroy, and by the next Christmas, Greenfield. That really ended talk about traffic queues there.
Tesla had other notable issues it has addressed, with lack of capacity and density in Northern California and Southern Oregon that saw long waits after the total eclipse, and Quartzsite, AZ which had power problems causing holiday queueing.
For other networks, we also have NEVI coming. NEVI is important not just for power and density, but because it finally adds an reasonable uptime requirement. In addition the money is more spread around different networks, instead of having a lot of eggs in the Electrify America basket. Tesla is getting a chunk of the money in multiple states, including Maine, Pennsylvania and Utah.
Plus, as EV ownership increases we should see destination charging have a bigger impact. There are already signs of significant expansion coming, with multiple hotel chains announcing additional chargers.
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2020 was blown due to COVID. No vaccines for the general public by Dec 2020 and the COVID situation was bad in So Cal. I remember it and passed on doing a road trip to So Cal in Dec 2020 because of no vax for me yet and many places would be closed.
The below are examples of some mitigations that Tesla did to avoid long lines in busy travel corridors by spreading out usage:
www.businessinsider.com
- Nov 2021
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6437635/akrales_160419_1019_A_0257.0.png)
www.theverge.com
- Dec 2021
electrek.co
- July 2022
www.teslarati.com
- Nov 2022
As I said, others can do something similar, but that only goes so far.
Update: As for "Supercharger network doesn't magically solve things, but it will make a _huge_ difference, because (1) it works", sure it works great with Teslas. But, I really do wonder once it opens up more and they have to talk CCS to a huge # of vehicles that are moving targets (with new models and updates to them coming out) if it'll be just another case of "grass is greener on the other side".
There are numerous reports of "Magic Dock" being hit or miss like these:
EA (for instance) has an elaborate test lab, part of which is to test compatibility with vehicles:
insideevs.com
Someone is going to have to do similar hard work.
Also, my earlier post had a booboo. https://www.plugshare.com/location/321832 was in there twice. I think I meant to include https://www.plugshare.com/location/288701.
The below are examples of some mitigations that Tesla did to avoid long lines in busy travel corridors by spreading out usage:
Tesla is giving away free charging so Superchargers don't get slammed during the Thanksgiving travel rush
Tesla wants to avoid long, frustrating lines at its Superchargers by letting owners charge up for free overnight and in the early morning.
www.businessinsider.com
Tesla rewarding timely holiday travelers with free supercharging
Holiday travelers get free Tesla charging in some areas.
www.theverge.com
Tesla offers free Supercharging to encourage off-peak charging during travels for holidays
Tesla is offering free Supercharging during off-peak hours at select locations during the 4th of July weekend to help with...
electrek.co
Tesla launches free Thanksgiving Supercharger rates for off-peak hours
Tesla is offering free Supercharging in select U.S. locations as Thanksgiving nears. Owners are encouraged to charge during off-peak hours.
www.teslarati.com
As I said, others can do something similar, but that only goes so far.
Update: As for "Supercharger network doesn't magically solve things, but it will make a _huge_ difference, because (1) it works", sure it works great with Teslas. But, I really do wonder once it opens up more and they have to talk CCS to a huge # of vehicles that are moving targets (with new models and updates to them coming out) if it'll be just another case of "grass is greener on the other side".
There are numerous reports of "Magic Dock" being hit or miss like these:
EA (for instance) has an elaborate test lab, part of which is to test compatibility with vehicles:
Electrify America Talks Charging Network Problems, Has Solutions
We sit down with Electrify America's CEO Giovanni Palazzo and COO Brendan Jones to discuss the network's problems, and how they plan to correct them.
insideevs.com
Someone is going to have to do similar hard work.
Also, my earlier post had a booboo. https://www.plugshare.com/location/321832 was in there twice. I think I meant to include https://www.plugshare.com/location/288701.
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