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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
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For those who haven't listened to Interview with Tesla Supercharger Team member, I recommend it. Start at ~1:30. Find your favorite podcast app (I use Overcast on iOS) so that you speed it up/shorten silences. The actual content ends at 37:00, or maybe a little before it.
If what the guest (Edwin) says starting at 31:00 or so is correct more widely in the US, there will be difficulties in deploying lots of charging infrastructure in the US quickly. So, it further reinforces my vote of after 2040.
If what the guest (Edwin) says starting at 31:00 or so is correct more widely in the US, there will be difficulties in deploying lots of charging infrastructure in the US quickly. So, it further reinforces my vote of after 2040.
Let’s be honest
PHEVs are not the answer
My family drives 3x pure BEVs long term to help reduce carbon
PHEVs are a falsehood that do NOTHING to help reduce carbon
It’s getting worse, please get a clue
@ItsNotAboutTheMoney
Please provide substance on why you don’t agree
The environment is suffering greatly
Hybrids are a very bad distraction that only harm
Tailpipes have to go away
I disagree with every post you write that contains sweeping, demonstrably false bullshit.
Crap like "nobody plugs in PHEVs", and "PHEVs are a falsehood that do nothing to reduce carbon".
You keep conflating PHEVs with bad policy.
Let’s have a peaceful debate about PHEVs vs BEVs.
Debate Proof Against PHEVs:
PHEVs are statistically not plugged in, the gas is only charging the battery.
PHEVs emit carbon being a ICE first, majority range portion
Btw, the forum does not tolerate cursing
Careful
Also, why are you so vocal on a Tesla forum about pro PHEVs? Us here are about Tesla and BEVs.
Please keep it civil or they will shut this thread.
Neither the headline nor the article says that nobody is plugging in, which is what you repeatedly claim.
In fact, as the article says, the problem is less about the PHEVs than people. It should be instructive in terms of policy treatment of PHEVs, to ensure that the electric capability of the PHEVs is significant, and that any subsidies require people to plug in to benefit.
I'm vocal about PHEVs, and not "pro PHEV". In my opinion too many BEV proponents live in a bubble in which they think that all use cases are covered by BEVs when they very clearly aren't. And because those same proponents misrepresent PHEV in multiple ways I don't think it's good to let that inaccuracy stand. Wilful inaccuracy just creates distrust and division.
TY for being civil, respect your opinions
Remember, BEV wins with lowest carbon impact past four years of ownership, but the irony for me is
sitting behind a brand new Prius and watching the smoke from the tailpipe
we are in a very bad environmental time with winters declining, gulf stream potentially stopping, Greenland going green
we have to do what we can to drop carbon levels fast which means, use less, reuse, recycle, use solar, use BEVs, dont use ICE/PHEV, and more
lets at least agree, we have to do more and fast
We already went over this. A properly implemented full hybrid gets MUCH better combined mileage than a straight non-hybrid ICEV, or a "micro hybrid" (start stop system) or a mild hybrid. Reasons were already given as to why.
You are really barking up the wrong tree and going after the wrong set of people. Burning a gallon of gasoline produces almost 20 pounds of CO2 (Emission Facts: Average Carbon Dioxide Emissions Resulting from Gasoline and Diesel Fuel | US EPA). Want to produce less CO2 from burning it? Gotta burn less of it.
Go look at Compare Side-by-Side and look at the gas mileage of some vehicles I selected. Click on the Energy and Environment tab, then change units to U.S. tons per year then show to Tailpipe & upstream GHG. A single '24 Prius driven 15K miles/year achieving EPA mileage rating of 57 mpg combined would produce 2.6 tons of GHG + another 0.5 tons upstream. A '24 Chevy Tahoe battering ram of death (BRoD) only gets 17 mpg combined and those numbers would be 8.7 tons + 1.7 tons.
(Yes, most efficient BEV sedans would be better than the '24 Prius on a California energy mix). You'd have to select a BEV, grams per mile and put in your zip code after clicking Calculate emissions as the amount of GHGs emitted by driving a BEV depends on the electricity generation mix on your area. Try Compare Side-by-Side.
Take a look at these others at Compare Side-by-Side or Compare Side-by-Side. '24 Camry Hybrid achieves 52 mpg combined while the non-hybrid is only 32 mpg. '24 Rav4 Prime AWD (PHEV) achieves 38 mpg on gasoline alone vs. 29 mpg for AWD straight ICE.
Look at how many Prius Toyota sold in 2023 in the US at https://s3.amazonaws.com/toyota-cms-media/toyota-pdfs/TMNA-US-Dec-2023-chart-FINAL.pdf. Was only 30.5K hybrids (HEVs, the kind you can't plug in) + another 7.5K of the Prime (PHEV version).
Then look at https://investor.gm.com/static-files/be64d2c4-adee-41e8-9c97-fa478654e9e7 for GM. They sold 110K BRoD Tahoes in the US in 2023 + these other BRoDs that are almost the same (some being extended length and even more of a guzzler) like 82K Yukons, 41.7K Slades, 52.8K Suburbans. This doesn't include their big trucks (e.g. Silverados and Sierra which amount to about 849K units from my rough math).
Look https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North America/US/2024/01/04/Q4 2023 Sales Final.pdf. They sold 750K F-Series trucks in the US. They get absymal fuel economy and are gross CO2 polluters just like the GM BRoDs. From the note, it looks like only 24K of those were their electric F-150 Lightning. Why is your ire not directed towards them? Expedition is another guzzler BroD and gross CO2 polluter.
Your ire should really be directed towards people who buy straight ICEVs esp. horrific guzzlers instead of HEVs, PHEVs or BEVs or vehicles below say 40 mpg combined when they have no need for them. Corolla Hybrid achieves 50 mpg combined while the non-hybrid achieves a pretty good (for a non-hybrid) 35 mpg.
It's gotten better in my area but long ago, before there were any mass market BEVs, in my area, I would see a ton of BRoD-class SUVs (e.g. Tahoes, Yukons, Slades, Expeditions, Suburbans, etc.) at the local supermarket and local roads usually being driven solo or with minimal passengers and cargo (e.g. 1 or 2 small children). Every now and then I still see newish to brand new BRoD-class ICEVs on the road here.
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When you look at PHEVs and real consumption patterns, you need to differentiate between US and EU as well as fleet vs personal.
In the article "we can only guess that people aren't plugging in". Maybe people who buy PHEVs do more miles than average drivers in a day and therefore can't use the EV portion as much as expected? Maybe fleets buy these cars for people and also cover gas costs - but not electric - and this is pretty significant in CA.
The average personal buyer in the US is not the same as a lot of these early fleet purchasers.
The EU has rules that favor PHEVs in cities that aren't effected by whether they are plugged in or not.
I have never had a PHEV. But I think they could make a lot of sense since we have failed to do the better thing - downsize cars, tax gasoline into less usage etc.
You can make the argument that we don't have time on PHEVs and they are a waste of resources. It is a reasonable argument. But that doesn't mean they are worthless in every use case - and in every political environment.
In the article "we can only guess that people aren't plugging in". Maybe people who buy PHEVs do more miles than average drivers in a day and therefore can't use the EV portion as much as expected? Maybe fleets buy these cars for people and also cover gas costs - but not electric - and this is pretty significant in CA.
The average personal buyer in the US is not the same as a lot of these early fleet purchasers.
The EU has rules that favor PHEVs in cities that aren't effected by whether they are plugged in or not.
I have never had a PHEV. But I think they could make a lot of sense since we have failed to do the better thing - downsize cars, tax gasoline into less usage etc.
You can make the argument that we don't have time on PHEVs and they are a waste of resources. It is a reasonable argument. But that doesn't mean they are worthless in every use case - and in every political environment.
Great analysis guys but think I was miss understood. My issue is with new vehicle purchases.
Options should be use the existing ICE until it dies, buy used/repurpose, or buy new BEV.
We want to see ICEs and hybrids go away over time as they age out.
It’s reuse first, meaning sell to used market or keep.
Do not buy new ICE.
Do not buy new PHEV. Buying and promoting PHEVs is a falsehood.
Buy BEVs, used or new.
Hoping this current hybrid increase in new sales is a blip and we return to increasing BEV adoption via the path above.
Globally the environment is changing quickly to a very bad and worsening state.
Act now.
Options should be use the existing ICE until it dies, buy used/repurpose, or buy new BEV.
We want to see ICEs and hybrids go away over time as they age out.
It’s reuse first, meaning sell to used market or keep.
Do not buy new ICE.
Do not buy new PHEV. Buying and promoting PHEVs is a falsehood.
Buy BEVs, used or new.
Hoping this current hybrid increase in new sales is a blip and we return to increasing BEV adoption via the path above.
Globally the environment is changing quickly to a very bad and worsening state.
Act now.
No, I still disagree. You're asking people to accept current, old crap vehicles. My friend replace their vehicle because it had an intermittant electrical problem that would cause the climate control to stop working. It couldn't be diagnosed and fixed.
Also, any suggestion that it's s always OK to keep a current vehicle is plain wrong. Most (about 80%) of the energy used by an ICEV during its life cycle is in driving, so people putting any significant miles on a guzzler is just making things worse from an energy standpoint, as well as a general pollution standpoint.
And again, the idea that you shouldn't buy PHEVs is just wrong. PHEVs provide all the utility people demand and have the ability _dramatically_ to reduce emissions with the combination electric driving and improved efficiency relative to ICEVs. It's _bad_ PHEVs that shouldn't promoted or subsidized and unfortunately the current tax credit rules repeated the failure of working by battery capacity, instead of AER.
As an example of a potential very, very good PHEV, if you look at the coming RAMCharger PHEV that will use a serial EREV approach, it could do far more to electrify pick-ups than current BEV offerings could. It would have all the utility needed, while able to electrify a very large majority of use and without asking people with significant energy demands to add a substantial amount of time to their journeys or deal with limited infrastructure that would add to journey time.
I have no compunction is suggesting that people should be willing to accept some extra refueling time in order to eliminate tailpipe pollution, but if I ask them to do so, the infrastructure needs to be built to minimize the inconvenience of having to stop more, including not making people towing unhitch their load every time they stop. New infrastructure (including Tesla Superchargers) is _still_ being built that sucks for anybody towing, because that's the cheapest way to build.
What matters more is not buying bad vehicles. I also wouldn't recommend buying bad BEVs either.
Arguably, best case, you rent an old ICEv when you need to tow long distances. The PHEV part isn't helping much at all in a long distance tow. Are you long distance towing more than 2X per year? Is that a common thing? Are you towing an ICE boat?
What I see is mostly is towing an ICE boat on the highway. There is so much wrong with that it really doesn't make a compelling use case for a PHEV. You can't be serious about climate change and use an ICE boat. Perhaps if you are a commercial fisherman but then you aren't towing anywhere. Towing sailboats long distance is not something that I see regularly but it is probably more common in other areas.
Now if you are towing a trailer to reside in - that is a better use. And I suspect there are a few people who do that regularly enough and could benefit from a PHEV for it. Is that worth a tax credit? Not sure. Are we just subsidizing optional trips in that scenario and is that the best use of limited funding?
It is really hard to come up with an absolute need for a PHEV in the population. So why should be subsidize it beyond the ridiculous subsidy of gas prices?
Again, we accept compromises. I have no problem with a segment of the population - ie anyone under 30 years old - not willing to accept compromises.
BTW - mostly only rich people tow anything long distances. Again, I have no problem with people who say rich people get enough tax advantage. And mostly it is rich rural people. Why should an urban dweller want to subsidize that?
Yes, my disgust with ICE boats biases me somewhat. But if you are serious about climate change (and few really are) you certainly don't do leisure boating. Given our current infrastructure, a car is quite needed. And for that we subsidize EVs. Still a compromise but that is how much of the country is set up. I can live in walking distance to work (recently I went to 1 location) but I can't also get my kid to school and reach the grocery store.
And for that friend whose car is toast and he had to have ICE, he could buy used.
What I see is mostly is towing an ICE boat on the highway. There is so much wrong with that it really doesn't make a compelling use case for a PHEV. You can't be serious about climate change and use an ICE boat. Perhaps if you are a commercial fisherman but then you aren't towing anywhere. Towing sailboats long distance is not something that I see regularly but it is probably more common in other areas.
Now if you are towing a trailer to reside in - that is a better use. And I suspect there are a few people who do that regularly enough and could benefit from a PHEV for it. Is that worth a tax credit? Not sure. Are we just subsidizing optional trips in that scenario and is that the best use of limited funding?
It is really hard to come up with an absolute need for a PHEV in the population. So why should be subsidize it beyond the ridiculous subsidy of gas prices?
Again, we accept compromises. I have no problem with a segment of the population - ie anyone under 30 years old - not willing to accept compromises.
BTW - mostly only rich people tow anything long distances. Again, I have no problem with people who say rich people get enough tax advantage. And mostly it is rich rural people. Why should an urban dweller want to subsidize that?
Yes, my disgust with ICE boats biases me somewhat. But if you are serious about climate change (and few really are) you certainly don't do leisure boating. Given our current infrastructure, a car is quite needed. And for that we subsidize EVs. Still a compromise but that is how much of the country is set up. I can live in walking distance to work (recently I went to 1 location) but I can't also get my kid to school and reach the grocery store.
And for that friend whose car is toast and he had to have ICE, he could buy used.
Kpanda, your ire should really be leveled at Stellantis not Prius drivers. They haven't sold any consumer BEV automobiles in the US since 2020 ever since CA compliance car gen 1 Fiat 500e was discontinued: Stellantis Media - Statement Regarding Discontinued Production of Fiat 500.
In 2023, they sold 1.5 million automobiles in the US (FCA Reports Fourth-quarter and Full-year 2023 Sales Results). The only plug-ins they had were all PHEVs. I picked the smallest engine and 2WD versions of some of their popular vehicles at Compare Side-by-Side. They get 22 or 23 mpg combined, one being a mild hybrid. At least they finally begin selling some BEVs again in the US this year.
In 2023, they sold 1.5 million automobiles in the US (FCA Reports Fourth-quarter and Full-year 2023 Sales Results). The only plug-ins they had were all PHEVs. I picked the smallest engine and 2WD versions of some of their popular vehicles at Compare Side-by-Side. They get 22 or 23 mpg combined, one being a mild hybrid. At least they finally begin selling some BEVs again in the US this year.
I'm not towing anything, but I know that people tow because I see some people towing. And statistics say that 80% of SUV/pick-up drivers tow at least once per year.
But the key thing you're missing is that consumers don't care about climate change. So, I'd rather subsidized vehicles they'd buy then just vehicles they won't buy.
Renting sucks. If renting didn't suck so much, maybe people would rent more. And renting really sucks if you're doing so multiple times.
Rich people pay most of the taxes and can afford to waste money. I don't mind rich people subsidizing better decisions by other rich people.
And you buy used and risk buying a lemon, like the vehicle my friend traded when they bought their new vehicle.
That friend also, by the way, was in a job driving a lot of miles, so benefited significantly from having a hybrid. Then they switched to a job with fewer miles, and could drive electric 1 way, but had to burn gas the other way, and benefited further. They should be changing soon to to a job with fewer miles where their PHEV will have enough range.
By getting a PHEV when dealing with the immediate challenge where a BEV wouldn't have worked for them, they've ultimately put themselves in a position where they won't burn much gas at all, making very good use of a good PHEV.
Similarly, we bought a PHEV back in late 2013, when the cheapest long-range BEV was $70k. We were originally 50%-60% electric, and that increased as we visited more with some good friends and plugged in at their house. pushing us to 2/3 to 3/4 electric. Then we got the EV and again gasoline miles decreased as the EV became the primary vehicle. Then I had an increase in working from home. Then I got the opportunity to charge the PHEV while at work during winter when I otherwise don't have enough range. Now, pretty much, we burn gas in the PHEV only when it's below 15F, in a 5-minute engine maintenance mode, or on the rare occasion that we're both driving outside the range of the PHEV.
Last year we finally got a fuel maintenance mode because the tank of gas was over year old. (Just before I'd have filled the tank anyway!) This year, unfortunately, we've had more cold mornings so the engine's run more and I don't think we'll make it a year. But maybe.
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no harm intended, it just ironic seeing people interested in buying new PHEVs when there are cost effective BEVs you can be buying
btw Stellantis CEO was on CNBC providing a good commitment plan for BEVs in the USA
Stellantis is doing a great job in EU as #3
"With a 23 percent market share of BEVs (battery electric vehicles), Stellantis is ahead of the entire competition Three models in the BEV top five: Opel Corsa Electric, Fiat 500 Electric and Opel Mokka Electric."
@ItsNotAboutTheMoney People do care about climate change, not sure why you are saying that
People in the USA are recycling, riding bikes, care about the winters disappearing, etc
and for PHEV use, you seem to be an outlier as I never see PHEV owners attempting to install home charging or minimally using 5-15 to do level 1 into the PHEV...no kidding, most PHEV owners never plug in, the ICE portion of the PHEV is charging the battery, its a falsehood
again, friendly debate, keeping it civil
Are we really sure that "most PHEV owners" never plug in. I don't believe that.
My colleague at work plugs in every night - she lives in a townhome but I think it has a garage - Honda Clarity - an unusual one.
My parking garage at work has a Volt plugged into it every day.
A good friend has a Volt that is always plugged in.
I get that these are all anecdotes. But who in their right mind thought a Volt driving on gas was a good car for the money. And anyone buying a Prius is concerned about FF use.
Now these Jeeps that are number one and two currently with a pathetic 25 mile AER - this I would call a waste of a tax credit. Are they plugged in? I wouldn't bet too much money on it.
My colleague at work plugs in every night - she lives in a townhome but I think it has a garage - Honda Clarity - an unusual one.
My parking garage at work has a Volt plugged into it every day.
A good friend has a Volt that is always plugged in.
I get that these are all anecdotes. But who in their right mind thought a Volt driving on gas was a good car for the money. And anyone buying a Prius is concerned about FF use.
Now these Jeeps that are number one and two currently with a pathetic 25 mile AER - this I would call a waste of a tax credit. Are they plugged in? I wouldn't bet too much money on it.
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