There are "Foreign Entity of Concern" rules.
“owned by, controlled by, or subject to the jurisdiction or direction of a government of a foreign country that is a covered nation.”
That's essentially every Chinese company.
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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
- Start date
There are "Foreign Entity of Concern" rules.
“owned by, controlled by, or subject to the jurisdiction or direction of a government of a foreign country that is a covered nation.”
That's essentially every Chinese company.
"For ’24, Cox predicts 10% EV, 14% hybrid, and 78% ICE. By 2025, the shares will be 15%, 18%, and 69%, respectively, according to Cox’s latest annual forecast, presented earlier this week."
As someone pointed out on chevybolt.org, the comments on the video at
are pretty brutal. This is not surprising for any sort of US EV story that makes into the media.
Chicago area superchargers failing in cold is a TMC thread on this incident.
Chicago area superchargers failing in cold is a TMC thread on this incident.
EV's are great, yep, lets force everyone to own one. If ICE cars had this issue, ...
E90alex
Active Member
Cold weather causes frozen gas pumps
URBANA, Ill. (WCIA) — The frigid temperatures have caused pumps at gas stations in Urbana and Champaign to freeze and stop working.
www.wcia.com
Diesel also can gel if it’s very cold.
Hydrogen pumps also have been known to freeze to cars in California weather, much less teens or subzero temps.
This seems to be a one off localized problem caused by some other failure and blown out of portion by the media and anti-EV pundits. I think I saw some posts that the network at those stations were down? There have been Superchargers for years in places just as cold if not colder than what Chicago was last night without major issues.
I’m still of the camp that one should not own an EV without the ability to charge at home. I would venture to guess most of those people stuck or waiting to charge are local and have no home charging.
Christmas Day in Colorado . . . 0 degrees F at noon . . . lots of upset drivers rolling pass the pumps . . . me charging in the background . . . what, no "news" coverage??? 
In revisiting this thread to respond elsewhere, well, my prediction came true.
Per EV Sales Growth was a Highlight of 2022 - Cox Automotive Inc., "EV share of new-vehicle sales in 2022 hit 5.8%..." Per A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S. in 2023, According to Estimates from Kelley Blue Book - Cox Automotive Inc., "In 2023, the EV share of the total U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates." So, obviously, we missed the 12% assumption for 2023.
Then there are the Cox predictions for 2024 and 2025 in post 502. I wonder how close they'll end up being.
Hydrogen for consumer automobiles in California isn't even a rounding error. So far, it's been an expensive boondoggle.
Per this guy, he's seeing Supercharger problems in Iowa and Nebraska too:
Chicago area superchargers failing in cold
It's absolutely foolish to buy an EV if you can't L2 charge at home, both practically & financially. I doubt many of these people were long distance driving in that weather.
teslamotorsclub.com
Chicago area superchargers failing in cold
It's absolutely foolish to buy an EV if you can't L2 charge at home, both practically & financially. I doubt many of these people were long distance driving in that weather.
teslamotorsclub.com
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Wait a sec - I literally said "I doubt even the most optimistic person thinks that will happen".
It was not an "assumption" - it was a "look how you can get in trouble cherry picking trends" kind of number.
Your choice of words will lose any argument where people are actually paying attention.
It was not an "assumption" - it was a "look how you can get in trouble cherry picking trends" kind of number.
Your choice of words will lose any argument where people are actually paying attention.
A lot of forces for pro and some slow:
-USA NACS adapter and seamless payments for non Teslas, is this even operational yet?
-USA NACS native on vehicles, will we see them Jan 2025?
-Terrible UX for non Teslas at non Tesla L2/L3, my daughter is in southern VA with M3/CCS and has to call EVGO to get the charging started each time, a mess (an she’s a Tesla at Non Tesla L3, btw 50->30 kw, terrible)
-IRA credit confusion in 2024, hoping better 2025
-many more non Tesla EV models arriving this year, but the NACS adapter and seamless payments must be working
-Tesla Model 2 Dec 2024-May 2025 $25K less $7500+ POS credit, explosive ramp
The future looks bright
-USA NACS adapter and seamless payments for non Teslas, is this even operational yet?
-USA NACS native on vehicles, will we see them Jan 2025?
-Terrible UX for non Teslas at non Tesla L2/L3, my daughter is in southern VA with M3/CCS and has to call EVGO to get the charging started each time, a mess (an she’s a Tesla at Non Tesla L3, btw 50->30 kw, terrible)
-IRA credit confusion in 2024, hoping better 2025
-many more non Tesla EV models arriving this year, but the NACS adapter and seamless payments must be working
-Tesla Model 2 Dec 2024-May 2025 $25K less $7500+ POS credit, explosive ramp
The future looks bright
GM has contacted some owners to say the adapters have been ordered. I'm sure the manufacturers would like to get them to customers.
Hyundai/Kia saying 2024Q4 for Kia EV6 etc and Hyundai IONIQs. Adapters to come from 2025Q1.
Sucks. I have EVGo Autocharge+ enabled and working for my Kona. I had enabled it when I had some time to kill, and then was pleasantly surprised when it worked during my vacation last year, as I'd forgotten that I'd enabled it.
Not so much confusion as a lack of clarity.
Some cars already have Plug & Charge enabled on Electrify America. I don't. I use the app. Sometimes the NFC has worked, sometimes not.
Model 2 build and ramp is TBD.
Potentially bright. Cheap, profitable, long-range EVs is the key. That will be the biggest driver of volume and then everything follows from there. Lower price and then subsequently vehicle supply make the 50% year hard to predict.
Great back and forth by all, appreciate it
If we can get the M3RWD back with credits that is holding this family’s children over while we wait for the M2 (M3 was $38K -$4 EoY -$7500 Fed -$2000 NYS $24K OTD, loved it) 272 miles
Tesla is helping
EX30 in our case will only get $34K -$2K $32K
M2 will be $25K -$7500 -$2000 NYS $15K OTD
This will have crazy adoption
Musk keeps dangling the M2, but they would really have to get costs down to make it worth their while. I don't personally have a crystal ball to predict how much progress they are making on costs for M2, but I'm just skeptical. If it was easy, it'd have already been done. For the most part, everyone avoids 25K vehicles, which says something about the high the hurdles are for the M2.
No, I wasn't referring to your doubling prediction. I was referring to your assumption of 12% new automobiles being BEVs in the US for 2023. That didn't happen. That's why I said: "So, obviously, we missed the 12% assumption for 2023."
As for your other hypothetical numbers and the "most optimistic person", well, we have 11 users here who voted 2025 or before which is nuts.
As I've said before, a 1970s-style oil crisis that's prolonged could accelerate things or at least move the US to a new higher baseline of % of BEV sales/year. But, if we have that coupled with a worldwide oil production decline and where no countries w/significant oil production and reserves can sustain their output, that will REALLY accelerate the demise of ICE and boost adoption of BEVs. When will we see that? Who knows?
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SalisburySam
Active Member
In the 1950’s one forecast for running out of oil was 2000. In the 1970’s the date we’re dry was 2020. Today, local gasoline is a relatively cheap $2.69/gallon including all onerous taxes. Even though we’re consuming petroleum in just unbelievable rates for both direct burning as fuel and as feedstocks for myriad plastics and other products, we manage to keep finding truly large numbers of squeezed dinosaur bodies or alternative ways of getting to it like fracking. For the US, I suggest that one thing and one thing only will change habits and that is much higher costs. That could be the case if government subsidies were eliminated but that’s wholly unlikely given the best Congressional behaviors money can buy.
MontyFloyd
Member
ICE:
Lead acid batteries can freeze/die in extreme cold if not 100% charged or are old.
Oil is thick, slowing the starter motor, could prevent start.
Fuel will not evaporate as easily, rough operation (mainly a carburetor engine issue)
Ice building up in throttle body choking the engine when idling (mostly resolved with injection)
Ice plug in exhaust pipe, often due to plugged drain hole, choking exhaust.
Rough idle (my injection system Corolla hates cold)
Yeah, ICE is has no problem in very low sub zero weather.
Imagine the not to distant future of:
Higher taxes on EVs, above registrations
Declining ICEvs and maintaining the oil and gas subsidies
Penalizing new EV drivers
Propping up legacy energy as it declines
The opposite should be happening where we remove the oil gas subsidies and shift those funds to building out solar, wind and batteries
We cannot hope that gas prices will solely drive ev adoption, there has to be EV and current environment strife education
Crazy backwards supporting oil and gas while the planet, avg temperate is climbing
It was around 20 deg F this morning in NYC. I saw one of my neighbors go sit in their ICE van to turn it on and warm it up. I had almost forgotten that "warming up the car" was a thing.
Be realistic. Any vehicle can have 12V problems. I know this because my Kona EV has had the 12V battery dying with unnecessary negative impact due to how it handles charging.
Modern ICEVs have far fewer temperature-related issues (both hot and cold) than in the past.
The Chicago problem was fundamentally about non-working chargers, which cut the charging capacity at a time where there would be higher demand (due to higher consumption) and slower charging (due to people arriving with colder batteries). It's also currently impacted somewhat by some locations being V2, notably Chicago O'Hare* where a dead charger isn't balanced as well by higher available power at other stalls.
We know that Tesla Superchargers normally function in cold OK (they work in colder environments than -15F), so hopefully Tesla can identify exactly what went wrong and then act to reduce the failure rate. Then this shouldn't happen again.
* There's now a Permit for a 52-stall V3 site near Chicago O'Hare called Des Plaines, IL. supercharge.info. That should help.
Probably because so many have remote start. That's what many people use here, sometimes installing an aftermarket system.
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