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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

In which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States


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I own an EV, and tell 100% of the folks I talk to not worth the money. I have also 4 ice cars and would never let go. The EV is a great toy if
one has money to burn, but as my only car to drive NEVER!!!! And I have 100% free charging with my solar.

What EV do you own? I mean, if it's a Nissan leaf or a Fiat 500, I could get that. But if it's a real car, like a Tesla, or perhaps a new Mercedes, a KIA or Hyundai, I don't know how that could be. But then again, everybody's different and we're all looking for different things.

I would also be curious to know what you do to get that extra money to burn? It's an odd thing to have such a negative look at electric vehicles and yet to own one. As I said, just curious.
 
It's an odd thing to have such a negative look at electric vehicles and yet to own one.
There was a recent NYT article about how to sell EVs in parts of the country that might not be interested in the "well because it's good for society and for our children" pitch. It found that people are buying EVs for their own reasons, like saving money on gas, or getting tax credits, even if the rationale for the Inflation Reduction Act and other initiatives at the policy level is "well because it's good for society and for our children"
 
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What EV do you own? I mean, if it's a Nissan leaf or a Fiat 500, I could get that. But if it's a real car, like a Tesla, or perhaps a new Mercedes, a KIA or Hyundai, I don't know how that could be. But then again, everybody's different and we're all looking for different things.

I would also be curious to know what you do to get that extra money to burn? It's an odd thing to have such a negative look at electric vehicles and yet to own one. As I said, just curious.
I own a tesla Model y
 
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What EV do you own? I mean, if it's a Nissan leaf or a Fiat 500, I could get that. But if it's a real car, like a Tesla, or perhaps a new Mercedes, a KIA or Hyundai, I don't know how that could be. But then again, everybody's different and we're all looking for different things.

I would also be curious to know what you do to get that extra money to burn? It's an odd thing to have such a negative look at electric vehicles and yet to own one. As I said, just curious.
I retired at 52. Was an engineer. Never wasted my money. Got lucky on my house and stock. I cannot take it with me
And since I have 100% free solar charging, I have 5 EV wall connectors, why not. We LOVE to drive the car, but only for close stuff.
We take our mini van on ALL our long trips. NO way do I want to deal with road charging! The one time I did in reno, I still
had to wait on the Tesla super chargers. Again, I am just a logical person. Just look at what the Ford CEO is saying about his ev trip
 
I retired at 52. Was an engineer. Never wasted my money. Got lucky on my house and stock. I cannot take it with me
And since I have 100% free solar charging, I have 5 EV wall connectors, why not. We LOVE to drive the car, but only for close stuff.
We take our mini van on ALL our long trips. NO way do I want to deal with road charging! The one time I did in reno, I still
had to wait on the Tesla super chargers. Again, I am just a logical person. Just look at what the Ford CEO is saying about his ev trip

On the other hand, I've driven my MY LR all over the US on road trips of thousands of miles each, and it's been easy and effortless for me. The in car navigation does most of the planning work, it's honestly been a great experience taking this MY on road trips. Often times the car is done charging and ready to go before my girlfriend and I are!

And Jim Farley's troubles were due to Electrify America problems, the likes of which I have never experienced using Tesla Superchargers. His experiences do not really apply to Tesla cars, but I'm sure you know that? 🤔
 
On the other hand, I've driven my MY LR all over the US on road trips of thousands of miles each, and it's been easy and effortless for me. The in car navigation does most of the planning work, it's honestly been a great experience taking this MY on road trips. Often times the car is done charging and ready to go before my girlfriend and I are!

And Jim Farley's troubles were due to Electrify America problems, the likes of which I have never experienced using Tesla Superchargers. His experiences do not really apply to Tesla cars, but I'm sure you know that? 🤔
Great, you choice. It just gets tiring that what works for you so many want to try and shove down the throats of others.

His experience, IMO, still applies to my Tesla. I have zero desire to deal with having to figure out charging for my long trips. Again, I do not put anyone down for wanting what works for them, but I have the right to use what works for me, no matter what others think
 
Great, you choice. It just gets tiring that what works for you so many want to try and shove down the throats of others.

His experience, IMO, still applies to my Tesla. I have zero desire to deal with having to figure out charging for my long trips. Again, I do not put anyone down for wanting what works for them, but I have the right to use what works for me, no matter what others think

But...the car figures out the charging stops for you?

And who is shoving anything down the throats of others? 🤔
 
I would be more interested about a pool estimating when ICE vehicles will be completely extinct.

Or would this even occur? I wonder if some extreme cold weather, petrol car will still be the best solution and will not disappear?
By 2050 Gas vehicles will still be about %60 of cars on the road....according to this NYT article...(maybe...) I won't be around to tell them they were wrong.
 
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I just love these articles that IMO are a joke. I do not care if they have a fast charger at every corner, I am NOT going to take a trip when I have to add this time and stress to my trip, no matter how many try to say but you have to stop for a pee stop, or eat anyways. You are going to save the world. Let the market decide. Get rid of the BS mandates, gov incentives. If it makes sense, people will buy, if not, guess what. Nothing works when the Gov tries to shove it down out throats.

 
Maybe 30 years this time
What year should we consider the start? 2017 M3? That would put us at 2047
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I just love these articles that IMO are a joke. I do not care if they have a fast charger at every corner, I am NOT going to take a trip when I have to add this time and stress to my trip, no matter how many try to say but you have to stop for a pee stop, or eat anyways. You are going to save the world. Let the market decide. Get rid of the BS mandates, gov incentives. If it makes sense, people will buy, if not, guess what. Nothing works when the Gov tries to shove it down out throats.

Not sure why you're so upset. An incentive is not "shov[ing] it down our throats". Maybe you should take your own advice and let people decide whether to take those incentives.

Since the entire automotive industry has been shocked into overdrive by the passage of the IRA, I would say that incentives have a fairly obvious effect. People love them. And people are voting with their fingers by pressing the buy button in the Tesla app.
 
Not sure why you're so upset. An incentive is not "shov[ing] it down our throats". Maybe you should take your own advice and let people decide whether to take those incentives.

Since the entire automotive industry has been shocked into overdrive by the passage of the IRA, I would say that incentives have a fairly obvious effect. People love them. And people are voting with their fingers by pressing the buy button in the Tesla app.
There are more than just incentives. There are mandates like California moves to accelerate to 100% new zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035 | California Air Resources Board (I'm in California). Some other states have adopted something similar (e.g. New York follows California mandating zero-emissions vehicles by 2035 | TechCrunch since you're in NY). So, when CA mandates that by 2035 that new cars and light trucks must be 80% ZEVs and up to 20% can be PHEVs, that is shoving it down the throats of Californians. And, as I've said before, I don't think it'll happen though. The date will either get pushed out or the requirements will be watered down.

As for IRA, in terms of vehicle incentives, it has had the opposite effect for me. I've lost benefits from it. Many vehicles are no longer eligible for any tax credit due to assembly, battery critical minerals and component requirements. And, they added an income cap which didn't exist before and my income is way above the cap. I can now only benefit via the commercial lease loophole if the automaker/financing company is willing to pass along most/all of the $7500 to the lessee.
 
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There are more than just incentives. There are mandates like California moves to accelerate to 100% new zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035 | California Air Resources Board (I'm in California). Some other states have adopted something similar (e.g. New York follows California mandating zero-emissions vehicles by 2035 | TechCrunch since you're in NY). So, when CA mandates that by 2035 that new cars and light trucks must be 80% ZEVs and up to 20% can be PHEVs, that is shoving it down the throats of Californians. And, as I've said before, I don't think it'll happen though. The date will either get pushed out or the requirements will be watered down.
Those mandates have zero effect on cars already on the road or cars sold by used car dealers. So even after 2035, most Californians will still be driving ICE vehicles.

Those mandates are not mandates on what a consumer chooses to buy. Those mandates affect the manufacturers only. I do agree, though, that if there are any problems reaching those mandates, we may see the CA legislature provide some wiggle room.
As for IRA, in terms of vehicle incentives, it has had the opposite effect for me. I've lost benefits from it. Many vehicles are no longer eligible for any tax credit due to assembly, battery critical minerals and component requirements. And, they added an income cap which didn't exist before and my income is way above the cap. I can now only benefit via the commercial lease loophole if the automaker/financing company is willing to pass along most/all of the $7500 to the lessee.
I think you're saying you wish you had an incentive but the incentives didn't reach you. I sympathize, definitely.

If you're not eligible for an incentive, however, it's probably due to exceeding income requirements, so that's probably not a hill you want to die defending. Even for a couple earning six figures that is eligible for the tax credits, we can look at low income folks who are eligible for even more tax credits (in CA for example). Sure, I'd love to be eligible for those too, but I totally get why low income folks are eligible for more, so I'm not complaining. Not being eligible for tax credits is a good problem to have!
 
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Those mandates have zero effect on cars already on the road or cars sold by used car dealers. So even after 2035, most Californians will still be driving ICE vehicles.
Sure.
Those mandates are not mandates on what a consumer chooses to buy. Those mandates affect the manufacturers only. I do agree, though, that if there are any problems reaching those mandates, we may see the CA legislature provide some wiggle room.
In theory, if the CA by 2035 mandate actually happens and isn't pushed out/watered down, there will really be only two choices: ZEVs (almost all of those will be BEVs as hydrogen FCEVs have been a boondoggle that's gotten nowhere in the US) or PHEVs but the max allowed of those will be 20% of new vehicles.
I think you're saying you wish you had an incentive but the incentives didn't reach you. I sympathize, definitely.

If you're not eligible for an incentive, however, it's probably due to exceeding income requirements, so that's probably not a hill you want to die defending. Even for a couple earning six figures that is eligible for the tax credits, we can look at low income folks who are eligible for even more tax credits (in CA for example). Sure, I'd love to be eligible for those too, but I totally get why low income folks are eligible for more, so I'm not complaining. Not being eligible for tax credits is a good problem to have!
It is because I'm well past the income cap.

Six figure income in the Bay Area isn't anything speclal. Take a look at figures like Bay Area Home Prices Outpace Salaries in ‘Affordable’ Cities due to our insane housing prices and Hoping to Buy a Home in the Bay Area? Here's How Much You Have to Earn + state income tax.
 
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In theory, if the CA by 2035 mandate actually happens and isn't pushed out/watered down, there will really be only two choices: ZEVs (almost all of those will be BEVs as hydrogen FCEVs have been a boondoggle that's gotten nowhere in the US) or PHEVs but the max allowed of those will be 20% of new vehicles.
Except many states follow CA emissions rules so used car dealers will still be able to sell very new ICE vehicles in CA. In reality, there will continue to be many ICE options in CA even after 2035.
Six figure income in the Bay Area isn't anything speclal. Take a look at figures like Bay Area Home Prices Outpace Salaries in ‘Affordable’ Cities due to our insane housing prices and Hoping to Buy a Home in the Bay Area? Here's How Much You Have to Earn + state income tax.
I mean, for an educated worker who bought a house, it may feel like everyone owns a $2 mil house and $300K combined income is nothing. That's because the peer group of rich people tends to be other rich people.

Tell that to the home care nurse whose kids live in Sacramento that is taking care of an elderly mom in the SF Bay Area. The home care nurse only sees her kids once every 2 weeks. She lives in her employer's house to avoid rent and is barely earning enough to support her extended family in Sacramento. She is not remotely rich at all nor is anyone she socializes with.
 
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I just love these articles that IMO are a joke. I do not care if they have a fast charger at every corner, I am NOT going to take a trip when I have to add this time and stress to my trip, no matter how many try to say but you have to stop for a pee stop, or eat anyways. You are going to save the world. Let the market decide. Get rid of the BS mandates, gov incentives. If it makes sense, people will buy, if not, guess what. Nothing works when the Gov tries to shove it down out throats.


So keep your gas car, sell your Model Y, and ignore EV's? Enjoy? 👍

And last I checked this thread was not about personal opinions on EV's , it was about "Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States". Your opinion about EV's really has no impact on the topic of the thread, correct? 🤔
 
And last I checked this thread was not about personal opinions on EV's , it was about "Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States". Your opinion about EV's really has no impact on the topic of the thread, correct? 🤔
H2ofun's opinions reflect that of the (most likely) majority of automobile drivers in the US. Folks here who keep thinking it'll happen by 2030 or earlier likely need to get out of their bubble and echo chamber to hear those who have no interest in EV or will "consider" but end up not buying nor leasing one. They need to go visit areas that aren't strong EV markets too.

This is in addition to the many factors and inhibitors that I and others that I've pointed out in this thread.

Another factor that I don't recall was pointed out here was that as more and more people buy EVs, we will see more and more reports of EV fires of at home, either idle or charging. Many (most?) of them won't be the fault of the EV (e.g. bad electrical work, melted outlet or wiring, Federal Pacific or Zinsco panels, etc.). This will also raise fears amongst those considering besides proving ammo for those against EVs. Judging some of the dodgy electrical work and suggestions I see on EV forums and FB groups, I doubt that % of dodgy work will go down.
 
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