Prediction Competition for 2016

[uselesslogin]

OK, with guidance out I will say 86,500 deliveries this year.

 

[Chickenlittle]

90,000

Do I win?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Do I win?

Man, I certainly hope you do. If you win we all do.

Having said that, I will say 85,001.

 

[Benz]

Shareholder Letter Q4 2015:

"To achieve these goals we plan to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new ModelS and Model X vehicles in 2016, ..."

I already thought they would do that (a range of 10,000).

Let's hope that they will not have to adjust their guidance below the 80,000 level (in May/August/November).

As 80,000 would mean an increase of almost 60% (compared to 2015). And that would be very good.

I think that the guidance of 80,000 - 90,000 is very ambitious. It's certainly not a conservative guidance.

All I can say right now is: "WOW".

 

[hershey101]

I'm going to go with 2016 deliveries of 80,251

 

[farzyness]

My prediction:

-84,073 Total Deliveries between S and X
-55,330 Model S
-28,743 Model X

I don't know about you guys, but I feel pretty damn good about my prediction

 

[SebastianR]

I will go "all-in" with a very conservative estimate:

93,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of

51,200 Model S
42,227 Model X

Let's see what will come of this

Alright, with the call out of the way - I will stand by my corrected estimate of:

83,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of

49,200 Model S
33,227 Model X

now let's see

 

[yak-55]

Given the poor Model X ramp, I am cutting my estimate to:
62k = 44k "S" + 18k "X"

I suspect company guidance at the upcoming ER will be much rosier ...

I don't know about you guys, but I feel pretty damn good about my prediction

Well, I do like my prediction that the guidance would be much rosier than my prediction ... :smile: Time will tell on the other bit.

 

[Crowded Mind]

So when do people need to post their final guesses by? The poll still closes in 2017.

 

[palmer_md]

Oops, you are right.

Thanks for reminding me.

The poll closes one week after Q4 2015 earnings, because then we will know what the guidance will be for 2016 (in February 2016).

So when do people need to post their final guesses by? The poll still closes in 2017.

One week after the earnings.

 

[esk8mw]

55,700 s
25,100 x

Loving my 1/4 prediction of 80,800. Bottom end of guidance, here we come!

 

[Benz]

Total annual global deliveries (Model S + Model X) in 2016: 84,200

Model S: 52,100
Model X: 32,100

The Q4 2015 Shareholder Letter was put online a week ago.
Actually, there are still a bit more than 14 hours remaining.
So, people can still post their guess/prediction during these remaining 14 hours.

Good luck to you all.

 

[Crowded Mind]

I'll go with 80,750.

52,000 S
28,750 X

 

[Gerardf]

I go for 83.500

55.000 Model-S
28.500 Model-X

(Plus 25 Model-3 Beta prototypes )

 

[Gerasimental]

I believe this is the first time that the mean prediction in this poll is (well) below guidance. Let's hope these polls continue their trend of being a contrarian indicator of actual deliveries.

 

[Benz]

These predictions have been posted in this thread:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

farzyness:

-84,073 Total Deliveries between S and X
-55,330 Model S
-28,743 Model X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Larken:

My vote is 78,777 delivered vehicles.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

SebastianR:

93,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of

51,200 Model S
42,227 Model X

Alright, with the call out of the way - I will stand by my corrected estimate of:

83,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of

49,200 Model S
33,227 Model X

now let's see :smile:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

StapleGun:

49,211 Model S
22,010 Model X
71,221 Total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

adiggs:

My prediction is 65,000 (30% growth off of the 50k 2015 number).
Call it the "wins should feel like wins" prediction.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Grendal:

Model S: 42,000

Model X: 42,500

Model 3: 1 Prototype

Total: 84,501

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

esk8mw:

55,700 s
25,100 x

(=80,800)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

dc_h:

82501 total
46000 S
36501 X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

AudubonB:

First guess for me: lucky 7s. 77,777

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Catteldog:

75,870
44,000 Model S
31,870 Model X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yggdrasill:

50,920 Model S
26,201 Model X
77,121 total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

RobStark:

I had that number weeks ago in the 2015 thread (Post 129). :smile:

Model S 50k
Model X 27,777

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

mrdoubleb:

So I'll reserve my vote until after the ER,
but right now my low end estimate would be 80k combined.

I will say 85,001.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

FlatSix911:

Extrapolation from this graph ...

50K Model S
40K Model X
90K Total for 2016

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Newb:

70,980 = 49,900 Model S + 21,080 Model X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

yak-55:

66k = 44k "S" + 22k "X"

Given the poor Model X ramp, I am cutting my estimate to:
62k = 44k "S" + 18k "X"

I suspect company guidance at the upcoming ER will be much rosier ...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

pGo:

75000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ryo:

47,000S
25,000X
72K total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

doctoxics:

You saw it here. 77,600 deliveries in 2016.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

bonaire:

Mine is:
46200 MS
19501 MX
====
65701

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gerasimental:

48350 Model S + 21780 Model X = 70130 Deliveries.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

RationalOptimist:

I'm going with:
47,505 Model S deliveries (slightly cannibalized by X, but offset by continued geographic growth)
37,111 Model X deliveries (accelerating throughout the year. will outsell S in Q4)
84,616 total deliveries

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

palmer_md:

68,200 total deliveries

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chickenlittle:

90,000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

mkjayakumar:

65723 total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

SBenson:

80,000 guidance announced in this ER.

No idea what the reality will turn out to be.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

PaulRocket:

I am saying 24k Model X and 53k Model S

(=77,000)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

FakeStewartAlsop:

I'm thinking

Model X = 15,000Model S = 56,000

(=71,000)

It would have been 15,001 Model X, but, well, you know...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

dalalsid:

S 50001
X 25001

Total 75002

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

HiTech:

I think it would be disastrous if the MS figures went down from 2015 figures. They will need to at least maintain 50k to keep the markets from jumping into the headlines of "slowing demand" with actual proof (unlike the current headlines without proof). Therefore, they will probably increase MS production figures to about 55-60k for 2016.

As for MX, with 25k backlog, I'd think they'd try to ramp up fast enough to cover most of these as fast as quality allows. My guess is that they'll cover about 20-25k in 2016.

Total of about 80k.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

uselesslogin:

OK, with guidance out I will say 86,500 deliveries this year.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

hershey101:

I'm going to go with 2016 deliveries of 80,251

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Benz:

Total annual global deliveries (Model S + Model X) in 2016: 84,200

Model S: 52,100
Model X: 32,100

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Crowded Mind:

I'll go with 80,750.

52,000 S
28,750 X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gerardf:

I go for 83.500

55.000 Model-S
28.500 Model-X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Benz]

These predictions have been posted in this thread:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

farzyness:

-84,073 Total Deliveries between S and X
-55,330 Model S
-28,743 Model X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Larken:

My vote is 78,777 delivered vehicles.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

SebastianR:

93,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of

51,200 Model S
42,227 Model X

Alright, with the call out of the way - I will stand by my corrected estimate of:

83,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of

49,200 Model S
33,227 Model X

now let's see :smile:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

StapleGun:

49,211 Model S
22,010 Model X
71,221 Total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

adiggs:

My prediction is 65,000 (30% growth off of the 50k 2015 number).
Call it the "wins should feel like wins" prediction.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Grendal:

Model S: 42,000

Model X: 42,500

Model 3: 1 Prototype

Total: 84,501

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

esk8mw:

55,700 s
25,100 x

(=80,800)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

dc_h:

82501 total
46000 S
36501 X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

AudubonB:

First guess for me: lucky 7s. 77,777

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Catteldog:

75,870
44,000 Model S
31,870 Model X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yggdrasill:

50,920 Model S
26,201 Model X
77,121 total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

RobStark:

I had that number weeks ago in the 2015 thread (Post 129). :smile:

Model S 50k
Model X 27,777

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

mrdoubleb:

So I'll reserve my vote until after the ER,
but right now my low end estimate would be 80k combined.

I will say 85,001.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

FlatSix911:

Extrapolation from this graph ...

50K Model S
40K Model X
90K Total for 2016

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Newb:

70,980 = 49,900 Model S + 21,080 Model X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

yak-55:

66k = 44k "S" + 22k "X"

Given the poor Model X ramp, I am cutting my estimate to:
62k = 44k "S" + 18k "X"

I suspect company guidance at the upcoming ER will be much rosier ...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

pGo:

75000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ryo:

47,000S
25,000X
72K total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

doctoxics:

You saw it here. 77,600 deliveries in 2016.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

bonaire:

Mine is:
46200 MS
19501 MX
====
65701

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gerasimental:

48350 Model S + 21780 Model X = 70130 Deliveries.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

RationalOptimist:

I'm going with:
47,505 Model S deliveries (slightly cannibalized by X, but offset by continued geographic growth)
37,111 Model X deliveries (accelerating throughout the year. will outsell S in Q4)
84,616 total deliveries

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

palmer_md:

68,200 total deliveries

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chickenlittle:

90,000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

mkjayakumar:

65723 total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

SBenson:

80,000 guidance announced in this ER.

No idea what the reality will turn out to be.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

PaulRocket:

I am saying 24k Model X and 53k Model S

(=77,000)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

FakeStewartAlsop:

I'm thinking

Model X = 15,000Model S = 56,000

(=71,000)

It would have been 15,001 Model X, but, well, you know...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

dalalsid:

S 50001
X 25001

Total 75002

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

HiTech:

I think it would be disastrous if the MS figures went down from 2015 figures. They will need to at least maintain 50k to keep the markets from jumping into the headlines of "slowing demand" with actual proof (unlike the current headlines without proof). Therefore, they will probably increase MS production figures to about 55-60k for 2016.

As for MX, with 25k backlog, I'd think they'd try to ramp up fast enough to cover most of these as fast as quality allows. My guess is that they'll cover about 20-25k in 2016.

Total of about 80k.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

uselesslogin:

OK, with guidance out I will say 86,500 deliveries this year.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

hershey101:

I'm going to go with 2016 deliveries of 80,251

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Benz:

Total annual global deliveries (Model S + Model X) in 2016: 84,200

Model S: 52,100
Model X: 32,100

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Crowded Mind:

I'll go with 80,750.

52,000 S
28,750 X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gerardf:

I go for 83.500

55.000 Model-S
28.500 Model-X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

In increasing order:


Less than 60,0000:


Nobody

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


60,000 - 70,000:

(5)


yak-55:

66k = 44k "S" + 22k "X"

Given the poor Model X ramp, I am cutting my estimate to:
62k = 44k "S" + 18k "X"

I suspect company guidance at the upcoming ER will be much rosier ...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

adiggs:

My prediction is 65,000 (30% growth off of the 50k 2015 number).
Call it the "wins should feel like wins" prediction.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

bonaire:

Mine is:
46200 MS
19501 MX
====
65701

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

mkjayakumar:

65723 total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

palmer_md:

68,200 total deliveries

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


70,000 - 80,000:

(14)


Gerasimental:

48350 Model S + 21780 Model X = 70130 Deliveries.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Newb:

70,980 = 49,900 Model S + 21,080 Model X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

FakeStewartAlsop:

I'm thinking

Model X = 15,000Model S = 56,000

(=71,000)

It would have been 15,001 Model X, but, well, you know...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

StapleGun:

49,211 Model S
22,010 Model X
71,221 Total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ryo:

47,000S
25,000X
72K total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

pGo:

75000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

dalalsid:

S 50001
X 25001

Total 75002

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Catteldog:

75,870
44,000 Model S
31,870 Model X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

PaulRocket:

I am saying 24k Model X and 53k Model S

(=77,000)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yggdrasill:

50,920 Model S
26,201 Model X
77,121 total

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

doctoxics:

You saw it here. 77,600 deliveries in 2016.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

AudubonB:

First guess for me: lucky 7s. 77,777

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

RobStark:

I had that number weeks ago in the 2015 thread (Post 129). :smile:

Model S 50k
Model X 27,777

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Larken:

My vote is 78,777 delivered vehicles.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


80,000 - 90,000:

(16)


SBenson:

80,000 guidance announced in this ER.

No idea what the reality will turn out to be.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

HiTech:

I think it would be disastrous if the MS figures went down from 2015 figures. They will need to at least maintain 50k to keep the markets from jumping into the headlines of "slowing demand" with actual proof (unlike the current headlines without proof). Therefore, they will probably increase MS production figures to about 55-60k for 2016.

As for MX, with 25k backlog, I'd think they'd try to ramp up fast enough to cover most of these as fast as quality allows. My guess is that they'll cover about 20-25k in 2016.

Total of about 80k.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

hershey101:

I'm going to go with 2016 deliveries of 80,251

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Crowded Mind:

I'll go with 80,750.

52,000 S
28,750 X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

esk8mw:

55,700 s
25,100 x

(=80,800)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

dc_h:

82501 total
46000 S
36501 X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

SebastianR:

93,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of

51,200 Model S
42,227 Model X

Alright, with the call out of the way - I will stand by my corrected estimate of:

83,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of

49,200 Model S
33,227 Model X

now let's see :smile:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gerardf:

I go for 83.500

55.000 Model-S
28.500 Model-X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

farzyness:

-84,073 Total Deliveries between S and X
-55,330 Model S
-28,743 Model X

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Benz:

Total annual global deliveries (Model S + Model X) in 2016: 84,200

Model S: 52,100
Model X: 32,100

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Grendal:

Model S: 42,000

Model X: 42,500

Model 3: 1 Prototype

Total: 84,501

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

RationalOptimist:

I'm going with:
47,505 Model S deliveries (slightly cannibalized by X, but offset by continued geographic growth)
37,111 Model X deliveries (accelerating throughout the year. will outsell S in Q4)
84,616 total deliveries

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

mrdoubleb:

So I'll reserve my vote until after the ER,
but right now my low end estimate would be 80k combined.

I will say 85,001.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

uselesslogin:

OK, with guidance out I will say 86,500 deliveries this year.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

FlatSix911:

Extrapolation from this graph ...

50K Model S
40K Model X
90K Total for 2016

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chickenlittle:

90,000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

More than 90,000:


Nobody


-------------------------------------------------------------------------[/QUOTE]

 

[FlatSix911]

Benz, good summary.
Perhaps you should lock this thread now and revisit on a quarterly basis until the winner is revealed in February 2017.

 

[Electroman]

There is a uber bear author in Seeking Alpha who has challenged that he will eat a hat if Tesla ever produces more than 20k Xs on any year !!

 

[dc_h]

I'm pretty sure he'll be backing out of this commitment in October or November 2016. Hopefully someone at Tesla will send him a nice hat for Christmas.

There is a uber bear author in Seeking Alpha who has challenged that he will eat a hat if Tesla ever produces more than 20k Xs on any year !!