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Prediction Competition for 2015

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#41
I'd say 56000. The issue I see is that manufacturing problems are tricky. Tesla has never had falcon wing door through production, same with the new rumored seats. I don't believe one can learn a lot from D debacle in production and apply directly to X ramp other than being a bit more vigilant. The production issues are specific to features and one has to learn as they go.

This year if Tesla does no deliver, a lot of models will revise down sharply the future guidance. I would say its a hugely important year for Tesla.
 
#48
The statistician in me says that my guess is more likely to win than any single other person's...I think mine is on p.3 of this thread.

I do think everyone else is going to call FOUL! on me, however..... ;)
 
#53
schonelucht said:
CPO's don't count for the purpose of this thread! So we should mark you down for 47690?
Click to expand...

That's right. We are only counting new and delivered cars. I'm sure TM will separate news cars from CPO's in their full year earnings report. I'll go through this thread after Wednesday when the voting closes and compile a list of everyone's vote and make sure everyone has voted on the same terms.
 
#54
schonelucht said:
CPO's don't count for the purpose of this thread! So we should mark you down for 47690?
Click to expand...
Sure, 47690 it is. However, I think CPO should count since that is an actual sale. I cannot be sure if Tesla will indicate a breakout when they announce deliveries.

there may be head scratching why I voted so low. I was second lowest in the 2014 challenge, so i have that experience in estimating, and I "won" the 2014 contest while many others were as much as 10,000+ higher in their estimates. The Q4 earnings said that there were 10,000 MS orders on tap entering 2015 and 20K of MX so I am taking into account that even with the D announcements, still only showing 10,000 going into 2015 is kinda low. 2014 included a fleet sale of 167 to an airport in Holland, initial rush of P85D and a good amount of base 60 and 85 discounted sales during Q4. Elon also admitted in a recent discussion (was it the conf call?) that they have a hard time estimating demand. My view is EVs are growing but not at the rate all of us want to see happen. My MS sales estimate is just under 30% annual growth, which will outpace the rest of the EV models out there, such as the i3 and Leaf.
 
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