POLL: When will V10 be in wide release (Elon says hopefully August)

[jebinc]

My guess is that V10 is a gateway for the "App Store" and for paying for enhanced Data services ("Premium Connectivity"), so there'll be a bit of motivation to get it out sooner than later. Is anyone paying for Premium Connectivity yet?

That could be, yes. Time will tell.

 

[diplomat33]

I seem to remember that NoA was originally going to be with the initial V9 release but got pushed back. The initial V9 release ended just being some UI changes and the more meaningful AP updates like Blind Spot Detection and NoA came a bit later if I am remembering correctly. V10 could be the same. We may well just get some minor features in the initial release of V10 and features like traffic light detection could come later. I am a bit impatient so obviously I am hoping we get some real good stuff in the initial V10 release. I guess we will find out soon enough when it gets leaked from Early Access.

 

[EVNow]

I seem to remember that NoA was originally going to be with the initial V9 release but got pushed back. The initial V9 release ended just being some UI changes and the more meaningful AP updates like Blind Spot Detection and NoA came a bit later if I am remembering correctly. V10 could be the same. We may well just get some minor features in the initial release of V10 and features like traffic light detection could come later. I am a bit impatient so obviously I am hoping we get some real good stuff in the initial V10 release. I guess we will find out soon enough when it gets leaked from Early Access.

Its possible we'll get a slow drip.
- Enhanced Summon, Stop sign detection, Highway NOA improvements : V10, HW 2.5
- Traffic light detection, stopping for Stop signs : 10.x, Q4, HW3
- Handling traffic lights : 10.x, Q1 '20, HW3

- Right turns : 10.x, Q2 '20, HW3
- City NOA : V11, Q3 '20, HW3

Each quarter there is an announcement of impending FSD price increase, release of new FSD feature, grace period and then a price increase

ps : note that Musk hasn't talked about "feature complete" for a while now.​

 

[diplomat33]

Its possible we'll get a slow drip.
- Enhanced Summon, Stop sign detection, Highway NOA improvements : V10, HW 2.5
- Traffic light detection, stopping for Stop signs : 10.x, Q4, HW3
- Handling traffic lights : 10.x, Q1 '20, HW3

- Right turns : 10.x, Q2 '20, HW3
- City NOA : V11, Q3 '20, HW3

Each quarter there is an announcement of impending FSD price increase, release of new FSD feature, grace period and then a price increase

ps : note that Musk hasn't talked about "feature complete" for a while now.​

I like your timeline. I think a slow drip would be very much in line with how Tesla is rolling out FSD.

Although, I can imagine the naysayers having a field day. "It's Q2 of 2020 and we don't have L5 yet!"

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Why would releasing V10 allow them to recognize any new revenue?

Correct. V10 doesn't appear to have any FSD features, therefore it wouldn't allow them to release FSD-related advances from the balance sheet. Plus I don't think they'll need much help in Q3 or Q4.

IMHO Q1-2020 will need a lot of help (based on extrapolating from Q1-2019) so there'll definitely be a push inside of Tesla to be able to recognize some of the FSD revenue then.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

I voted by the end of October also but only because there was no option to say by the end of September. I'm pretty sure they want to do it before the end of the quarter because then they can recognize more income in that quarter.

I'm not sure why the poll didn't align with the financial reporting periods.

Good point on end-Sept, but I'm not sure how difficult that would be to distinguish from "starting at end of August", which really means mid-Sept.

 

[EVNow]

Correct. V10 doesn't appear to have any FSD features, therefore it wouldn't allow them to release FSD-related advances from the balance sheet. Plus I don't think they'll need much help in Q3 or Q4.

Enh Summon would allow them to recognize EAP revenue completely. Also, some of the newer FSD revenue (after the change they made, where summon is a FSD item). They do need help in Q3/Q4 - to increase the margin. Musk said so in the ER.

IMHO Q1-2020 will need a lot of help (based on extrapolating from Q1-2019) so there'll definitely be a push inside of Tesla to be able to recognize some of the FSD revenue then.

Yes, Q1/Q2 are seasonally low for auto sales (esp EVs). Ofcourse Q1 '19 was a special case for Tesla. Still, I've to wonder whether there will be some kind of big push in Q1 to get more FSD revenue recognized and to upsell a lot.

ps : Tesla will have some discretion in revenue recognition once the feature is delivered. They can recognize revenue over multiple quarters instead of all at once.

 

[EVNow]

My guess is that V10 is a gateway for the "App Store" and for paying for enhanced Data services ("Premium Connectivity"), so there'll be a bit of motivation to get it out sooner than later. Is anyone paying for Premium Connectivity yet?

I don't buy it.

There are not many people who would actually subscribe, esp in the beginning. Its impact on quarterly ER is just rounding error. For eg, if all 500k owners signed up for $10 a month, its still just $15M/quarter.

Compare this with > $100M they can recognize from the deferred revenue pool each quarter.

ps : 763M over next year or ~$190M a quarter. This is what they expect to recognize over the next year according to Q2 Balance Sheet. This includes EAP/FSD and many other items.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

I don't buy it.

There are not many people who would actually subscribe, esp in the beginning. Its impact on quarterly ER is just rounding error. For eg, if all 500k owners signed up for $10 a month, its still just $15M/quarter.

Compare this with > $100M they can recognize from the deferred revenue pool each quarter.

ps : 763M over next year or ~$190M a quarter. This is what they expect to recognize over the next year according to Q2 Balance Sheet. This includes EAP/FSD and many other items.

There's also a degree of difficulty issue. Supporting Premium Internet is a relatively small amount of work for $10M - $20M per quarter.

 

[EVNow]

@EVNow I think you may have misunderstood my earlier post (my fault). The "Reasonable Person" is all of us, and how we would view Musk. In no way was I trying to say he was a "Reasonable Person;" if anything, I was suggesting that the "Charlatan" tag may be more appropriate (for Musk) - depending on what his real motives were last month when tweeting (and only he knows what those were, not us)...

I think Charlatan is a totally inappropriate term for Musk. He is obviously very talented. But makes rosy projections - which seems to be a common silicon valley bug/feature.

He could definitely get better at communicating. He seems to be communicating better when it comes to Model Y production timeline, for eg (having learnt from Model 3).

As an aside... Being a TSLA-long investor, another thing I don't like is not having a leader working full time and focused on Tesla. While Musk sleeps little, he is trying to oversee many companies. Personally, I want the company's leader that I invested in to spend 100% of their time managing that company, and not several others - along with some personal "side projects"... I believe a "reasonable person" would agree as well. Just sayin'...

Oh well - with people like Musk, you have to take them whole. You can't pick and choose their characteristics - a la carte. Can you think of someone who would make a better CEO at this point ?

 

[EVNow]

There's also a degree of difficulty issue. Supporting Premium Internet is a relatively small amount of work for $10M - $20M per quarter.

At this point, I don't think it will contribute anything to the margin. Its likely just break-even in the first few quarters.

I'm talking about the need to release it in September, rather than October. Makes no difference for that feature.

 

[jebinc]

I think Charlatan is a totally inappropriate term for Musk. He is obviously very talented. But makes rosy projections - which seems to be a common silicon valley bug/feature.

He could definitely get better at communicating. He seems to be communicating better when it comes to Model Y production timeline, for eg (having learnt from Model 3).


Oh well - with people like Musk, you have to take them whole. You can't pick and choose their characteristics - a la carte. Can you think of someone who would make a better CEO at this point ?

Fair enough. I was just suggesting he might be exhibiting Charlatan behavior based on the logic I laid out in the earlier post. I think Musk should be on the board, but the Tesla CEO should be an execution leader, with technical prowess. And, as I mentioned earlier, I would like to see my investment managed by a CEO who focuses 100% of their time, attention and skills to further the company’s objectives - and not a part timer who spews (for whatever reason) inaccurate information via tweets

 

[EVNow]

Fair enough. I was just suggesting he might be exhibiting Charlatan behavior based on the logic I laid out in the earlier post. I think Musk should be on the board, but the Tesla CEO should be an execution leader, with technical prowess. And, as I mentioned earlier, I would like to see my investment managed by a CEO who focuses 100% of their time, attention and skills to further the company’s objectives - and not a part timer who spews (for whatever reason) inaccurate information via tweets

If Musk is replaced by someone else as CEO, TSLA will tank 90%

They tried a COO sometime back - didn't work out. The problem will be finding someone that gets along with Musk - and for Musk to not micromanage. If they can get a good COO from inside Tesla it might work ...

Balmer replacing Gates didn't go too well - even though Microsoft was a mature organization by then. Cook hasn't been able to bring anything truly innovative after Jobs. Its very difficult to fill in those big shoes ...

 

[jebinc]

If Musk is replaced by someone else as CEO, TSLA will tank 90%

They tried a COO sometime back - didn't work out. The problem will be finding someone that gets along with Musk - and for Musk to not micromanage. If they can get a good COO from inside Tesla it might work ...

Balmer replacing Gates didn't go too well - even though Microsoft was a mature organization by then. Cook hasn't been able to bring anything truly innovative after Jobs. Its very difficult to fill in those big shoes ...

No argument, but to find the right CEO/COO, the board should start now as it could take awhile, for the reasons you say.

 

[Dutchie]

I think Elon is losing his sight of what is going on within Tesla and so you better not pay any attention of what he is saying. For instance:
- He saying that all cars shipped are hardware ready for FSD. This is not the case as there are still cars shipped with HW2.5;
- He is saying that MCU can be upgraded when service says it cannot.

His timelines are always off and it gets wackier all the time. I have a feeling that they are really struggling with FSD and that they keep giving us updates with more games just to keep us happy. V10 should have Netflix and YouTube enabled for when you are charging. All this to keep us quiet while the real updates are being held off.

I have been paying attention at driving and if you see how many subtleties you encounter when driving I am starting to think that FSD will never be achievable. I think humans are also much better in reading the traffic. What I mean is for instance the fact that a car crossing your lane to go into another road. When on autopilot it always hits the brakes when it doesn't need to as the car will be gone before you are at the same spot. We are much better in judging what the situation will be a couple of seconds later than the computer does. Perhaps that will change but it will not by uploading a couple of images as the images does not show movement.

 

[jebinc]

I think Elon is losing his sight of what is going on within Tesla and so you better not pay any attention of what he is saying. For instance:
- He saying that all cars shipped are hardware ready for FSD. This is not the case as there are still cars shipped with HW2.5;
- He is saying that MCU can be upgraded when service says it cannot.

His timelines are always off and it gets wackier all the time. I have a feeling that they are really struggling with FSD and that they keep giving us updates with more games just to keep us happy. V10 should have Netflix and YouTube enabled for when you are charging. All this to keep us quiet while the real updates are being held off.

I have been paying attention at driving and if you see how many subtleties you encounter when driving I am starting to think that FSD will never be achievable. I think humans are also much better in reading the traffic. What I mean is for instance the fact that a car crossing your lane to go into another road. When on autopilot it always hits the brakes when it doesn't need to as the car will be gone before you are at the same spot. We are much better in judging what the situation will be a couple of seconds later than the computer does. Perhaps that will change but it will not by uploading a couple of images as the images does not show movement.

I gave this post a “like” because I think the timelines are off for real FSD functionality, and believe (in the interim) Tesla should be delivering “basic” (and very dependable) safety functionality/driver’s aids that most other cars already have, instead of more games, Enhanced Summon, and other non driving aid items. In a separate thread I created back in early July, I was seeking input on Tesla basic driving aids vs Subaru “Eyesight” basic drivers aids, but was flamed by some of the FSD zealots that frequent this and the Tesla.com forum. Not looking for more debate on that here (thank you), just sharing my opinion/preference for driver’s aid substance over games and things like Summon, etc. How about doing what’s necessary to remove the “Beta” qualifiers for existing functionality released earlier, as another suggestion, while work continues on FSD at whatever pace is required to bring it to market?

 

[Cheburashka]

Who actually cares about Netflix or YouTube that can only be watched while the car is parked?

Unless you're a chronic SC user, then this will just encourage people to spend more time blocking SC stalls.

Honestly, this seems like a useless gimmick.

 

[emmz0r]

Who actually cares about Netflix or YouTube that can only be watched while the car is parked?

Unless you're a chronic SC user, then this will just encourage people to spend more time blocking SC stalls.

Honestly, this seems like a useless gimmick.

Indeed. Now that supercharging is faster it will make even less sense. Maybe on a VERY rare occasion when you have to top off to 100% to reach the next destination.

I suspect these are gimmicks to sell more cars. It creates a lot of free press. So to get those features in there cost less than they would use on advertising. It's clever but annoying when they could have spent time fixing the USB player for people who use that etc.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Not a big surprise, but Elon is now saying a "4 to 8 week" delay for V10.

Those of you who voted for Halloween (end-Oct) might be the winners of this poll.
My vote was Thanksgiving (end-Nov), which still may play out.

 

[boonedocks]

I need to change my vote from "Q1 of 202"0 to something "later in 2020". Please update the poll to have no earlier than year end 2020