POLL: When will V10 be in wide release (Elon says hopefully August)

[M3BlueGeorgia]

"Tesla’s Version 10 (V10) firmware is on the horizon and will be released to owners starting as early as August, according to CEO Elon Musk. After the company’s Early Access Program results from V10 are assessed and addressed, a wide release of the firmware will follow.

“Depends on how release to owners with early access goes, but hopefully wide release by end of August,” Musk replied on Twitter to a question about V10’s availability.

Several upcoming V10 features were revealed by Musk on Twitter, including new games, infotainment features, improvements in Autopilot behavior on highways as well as better traffic light and stop sign recognition, and Smart Summon (previously Enhanced Summon). Also mentioned was a feature called “Joe Mode” which would lower the volume of Autopilot warnings and notifications by half. Musk additionally noted that some infotainment features will need a premium connectivity package."

Musk: V10 wide release "hopefully end of august" after early access

 

[diplomat33]

I said "end of October". I fully expect that there will be delays. But it is possible that Tesla will release a watered down version of V10 in early Sept in order to basically keep the release date and then release more features a month later. I think that is what they did with V9 actually. Wasn't NOA originally supposed to come out with V9 but rather than delay V9 by several months, they released V9 with the UI changes first and released NOA later? Tesla could do something similar with V10, release it with enhanced summon first and then release the remaining big AP features later.

 

[StealthP3D]

I said "end of October". I fully expect that there will be delays. But it is possible that Tesla will release a watered down version of V10 in early Sept in order to basically keep the release date and then release more features a month later. I think that is what they did with V9 actually. Wasn't NOA originally supposed to come out with V9 but rather than delay V9 by several months, they released V9 with the UI changes first and released NOA later? Tesla could do something similar with V10, release it with enhanced summon first and then release the remaining big AP features later.

I voted by the end of October also but only because there was no option to say by the end of September. I'm pretty sure they want to do it before the end of the quarter because then they can recognize more income in that quarter.

I'm not sure why the poll didn't align with the financial reporting periods.

 

[diplomat33]

I voted by the end of October also but only because there was no option to say by the end of September. I'm pretty sure they want to do it before the end of the quarter because then they can recognize more income in that quarter.

I'm not sure why the poll didn't align with the financial reporting periods.

Yeah, I wanted to say end of Sept too. I am pretty sure Tesla will try to release V10 by end of Sept, even if it does not contain every single feature right away in the first update.

 

[RDoc]

I said Q1 2020, but that's conditional on what the definition of V10 is. If the definition is an update whose number is 10, then it's likely to be pretty soon. If the definition is an update with enhanced summon with the car finding you in a parking lot feature, then Q1 2020 is likely wildly optimistic.

 

[EVNow]

I'm sure they are hoping to release in September. They can recognize a bunch of deferred revenue (atleast have that option), which would be nice for Q3.

 

[Cheburashka]

Why would releasing V10 allow them to recognize any new revenue?

 

[EVNow]

Why would releasing V10 allow them to recognize any new revenue?

Some features of AP/EAP/FSD delivered.

Infact, EAP might be fully delivered with V10. For complete FSD revrec, they need to complete City NOA & upgrade to HW3.

From the deferred revenue balance as of January 1, 2018, revenue recognized during the six months ended June 30, 2018 was $44.5 million. Of the total deferred revenue on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantees, we expect to recognize $567.0 million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized over the various performance periods of the obligations, which is up to the eight-year life of the vehicle.​

 

[bmah]

I notice that some of the poll choices had years and some didn’t.

Bruce.

 

[jebinc]

I went with end of November, given how everything is always late or less than advertised when first released.

 

[KJD]

You need an August 2020 option in the poll.

 

[EVNow]

You need an August 2020 option in the poll.

Well, they can release V10, whenever they want. Stuff that is not working well, they will just pull.

 

[diplomat33]

 

[jebinc]

View attachment 439591

Well, that's a better outlook than he had on Enhanced Summon - but it's still pretty vague, and doesn't firm up an August release any more than the "Hopefully August" statement made previously. I wonder if Tesla will raise the price of FSD on August 16th, as previously communicated. My money is on "not". YMMV.

 

[dgatwood]

You missed the obvious poll option:

• 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.

 

[EVNow]

Well, that's a better outlook than he had on Enhanced Summon - but it's still pretty vague, and doesn't firm up an August release any more than the "Hopefully August" statement made previously. I wonder if Tesla will raise the price of FSD on August 16th, as previously communicated. My money is on "not". YMMV.

I don't think they will raise the price until V10 release. Infact they may release V10 and then do a one week extension, hoping to upsell a lot of folks.

I'm still hoping for V10 to be in wide release by Sept end. That would allow Tesla to recognize some of the deferred revenue in Q3 '19 and probably break-even or make some profit, esp. if the ASP and margin are somewhat lower than planned. For this to work well, they need to release with at least a week left in September and announce a price increase starting on Oct 1st

 

[jebinc]

I don't think they will raise the price until V10 release. Infact they may release V10 and then do a one week extension, hoping to upsell a lot of folks.

I'm still hoping for V10 to be in wide release by Sept end. That would allow Tesla to recognize some of the deferred revenue in Q3 '19 and probably break-even or make some profit, esp. if the ASP and margin are somewhat lower than planned. For this to work well, they need to release with at least a week left in September and announce a price increase starting on Oct 1st

@EVNow - Yes, makes sense, and I agree.

Wouldn't you think a "reasonable person" would believe Musk would have known that the probability of v10 (and/or Enhanced Summon) being ready by 8/16, or even August, was more unlikely than likely? If so, wouldn't that "reasonable person" now (post 8/16) conclude Musk must of had ulterior motives (and perhaps disingenuous ones at that) for putting out the statements last month that he did (like the price of FSD is going up on 8/16....)? I posit that ulterior motive was to boost FSD sales (increase cash flow) at the expense of loyal customers. That has been my gripe, not Telsa, not the product, etc. I just don't appreciate either "Charlatan" behavior by a Leader, and if not that (Charlatan behavior), only incompetence remains (neither are desirable attributes one wants in a Leader) - he should know more about where the hard working Tesla team really are at on development and not screw them over by tweeting stuff either he has little clue about or wants to use to mislead customers for financial gain. BTW, doesn't Musk get a huge payout if/when Tesla reaches a market cap of $100B? He "might" be a bit "conflicted"... Just saying/sharing an opinion and alternate view.... Not trying to create hate and discontent.

Edit: Adding some definitions for the avoidance of doubt as to my intended use above.

"Reasonable person" - a fictional person with an ordinary degree of reason, prudence, care, foresight, or intelligence whose conduct, conclusion, or expectation in relation to a particular circumstance or fact is used as an objective standard by which to measure or determine something (as the existence of negligence)

"Charlatan" - one making usually showy pretenses to knowledge or ability

 

[EVNow]

Wouldn't you think a "reasonable person" would believe Musk would have known that the probability of v10 (and/or Enhanced Summon) being ready by 8/16, or even August, was more unlikely than likely? If so, wouldn't that "reasonable person" now (post 8/16) conclude Musk must of had ulterior motives (and perhaps disingenuous ones at that) for putting out the statements last month that he did (like the price of FSD is going up on 8/16....)? I posit that ulterior motive was to boost FSD sales (increase cash flow) at the expense of loyal customers.

Whatever makes you think Musk is a reasonable person ?!!! If he was - he would have never ever started SpaceX or Tesla. It takes a totally different type of personality to be an entrepreneur who bets his entire fortune (and more) on companies that at the outset have very little chance of success. Musk, for eg, takes zero money from Tesla & SpaceX now - and lives off debt. He has 1/2 a billion in debt now. "Charlatans" don't do that. If you want to look for Charlatans look at all those Wall St types who took millions in bonuses and sank the economy. When there are so many executives / CEOs who are milking their companies dry to get rich - calling Musk a Charlatan makes obsoletely no sense.

Do you think the possibility of Enh Summon (that has already been delayed several times) finally releasing in August is higher or lower than a new automaker succeeding in US - given that las time it had happened was in 1941 (Jeep). Considering all that Tesla & SpaceX has achieved - after being told by the entire world those things were impossible - is it that difficult to understand Musk has a different perspective on what is possible and what is not possible ?

 

[jebinc]

Whatever makes you think Musk is a reasonable person ?!!! If he was - he would have never ever started SpaceX or Tesla. It takes a totally different type of personality to be an entrepreneur who bets his entire fortune (and more) on companies that at the outset have very little chance of success. Musk, for eg, takes zero money from Tesla & SpaceX now - and lives off debt. He has 1/2 a billion in debt now.

Do you think the possibility of Enh Summon (that has already been delayed several times) finally releasing in August is higher or lower than a new automaker succeeding in US - given that las time it had happened was in 1941 (Jeep). Considering all that Tesla & SpaceX has achieved - after being told by the entire world those things were impossible - is it that difficult to understand Musk has a different perspective on what is possible and what is not possible ?

@EVNow I think you may have misunderstood my earlier post (my fault). The "Reasonable Person" is all of us, and how we would view Musk. In no way was I trying to say he was a "Reasonable Person;" if anything, I was suggesting that the "Charlatan" tag may be more appropriate (for Musk) - depending on what his real motives were last month when tweeting (and only he knows what those were, not us)...

I completely agree we need more Musk's to stimulate innovation and to kick-start fledging industries like SpaceX and Tesla. However, I don't think these visionaries should be responsible for execution and program management! Communications about project status should come from those leaders responsible for execution and who really know and can speak to it, from a position of great understanding. Let Musk spew and push all that "could be," fund startups of innovation, etc. - but not to the point where it alienates customers and investors in these great companies. No issues there at all.

Edit: As an aside... Being a TSLA-long investor, another thing I don't like is not having a leader working full time and focused on Tesla. While Musk sleeps little, he is trying to oversee many companies. Personally, I want the company's leader that I invested in to spend 100% of their time managing that company, and not several others - along with some personal "side projects"... I believe a "reasonable person" would agree as well. Just sayin'...

 

[ASUComputerGuy]

My guess is that V10 is a gateway for the "App Store" and for paying for enhanced Data services ("Premium Connectivity"), so there'll be a bit of motivation to get it out sooner than later. Is anyone paying for Premium Connectivity yet?