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Peak Oil

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I've been wondering if there wouldn't be an interesting relationship between peek oil and refinery investment. A refinery is a major capital object which needs decades to operate. Margins are thin and probably just going to get thinner. I keep reading about refineries being sold off even while the U.S. is exporting more refined products. Who would build a refinery when oil will not be affordable in a few years? U.S. consumption is down, but will it stay that way? Is smart money dumping refineries?
 
A casual search suggests that politics will find a way to keep refining profitable. From offering use of federal land, to shortened depreciation schedules.

BTW:
Crack spread - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Crack Spread: Theoretical Oil Margins Near 2-Year Highs - Seeking Alpha

Going For Profits Off The 'Crack Spread' - Seeking Alpha
saupload_crackspreadchart2.jpg


http://www.dundee.ac.uk/cepmlp/car/html/CAR10_ARTICLE34.PDF
...In various countries of the world, governments have favored the construction of refineries from either private or state owned companies, ignoring the potential financial losses. The motive behind this policy is to save foreign exchange by importing crude oil, which is cheaper than importing oil products. In addition, the existence of a refinery within a country’s borders helps to promote economic growth and employment. To make the projects attractive to investors, the governments regulate in favor of local refineries by increasing import taxes on petroleum products and in some cases even prohibiting imports entirely...
 
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Nitpicker's corner: This is the first time I've seen "several" used for "3".
Both the GAO and private industry estimate the amount of oil recoverable to be 3 trillion barrels.
"In the past 100 years — in all of human history -- we have consumed 1 trillion barrels of oil. There are several times that much here," said Roger Day, vice president for operations for American Shale Oil (AMSO).