Trump will end Biden's EV (tax credit) policies

[voyager]

If there is one thing that Trump is clear about, it is to "drill - drill - drill" for more oil and gas,
and to end Biden's electric car policies.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749869966956933449

Which makes it the more wondrous why Elon Musk is reportdedly endorsing Trump.

 

[Tam]

If there is one thing that Trump is clear about, it is to "drill - drill - drill" for more oil and gas,
and to end Biden's electric car policies.


Which makes it the more wondrous why Elon Musk is reportdedly endorsing Trump.

Because Trump's policy of ending Government Subsidies aligns with Elon Musk's official principle:

Elon Musk says the US should ‘get rid of all’ government subsidies

Citing the federal deficit

www.theverge.com

"he doesn’t think the United States needs the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill — or any government subsidies, for that matter. “Just delete them all,” "

"
Musk also said he doesn’t believe the US government should be giving out subsidies to expand charging infrastructure — though that provision is in the infrastructure bill that Biden already signed into law.
“Do we need support for gas stations? We don’t. So there’s no need for this,” Musk said."

 

[voyager]

Okay... but what will happen when gasoline (and diesel) prices do come down when the stuff
becomes abundantly supplyable because of way more drilling...
and at the same time EV tax credits are canecelled?

American carmakers already have a hard time selling EVs. Chinese carmakers may even
deal them a death blow... unless of couse Trump will raise import tariffs.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Okay... but what will happen when gasoline (and diesel) prices do come down when the stuff
becomes abundantly supplyable because of way more drilling...
and at the same time EV tax credits are canecelled?

American carmakers already have a hard time selling EVs. Chinese carmakers may even
deal them a death blow... unless of couse Trump will raise import tariffs.

Petrol/diesel isn't free (production/transport). More people will get solar, Solar, Wind and Storage will be cheaper. Could be stymied by policies, that's true.

It's complex, the whole set of products depend on others being sold. Electricity and other inputs like cobalt are needed for refineries. Transport by ship, road etc costs money. There's a floor on the cost of oil products.

As transport moved more to EVs, fuel demand goes down (scooters already had an effect, because they're huge in Asia). Pollution standards on ships (especially in coastal waters) means less of the worst fuels (bunker oil/fuel) are in demand. Some fuel tankers in Scandinavia are already EVs. New ships will have electric drive for coastal waters, more efficient fossil fuel/hybrid propulsion for oceans. This might affect economics of whole oil business. Petroleum was a over supplied/near useless by-product looking for a market at one stage.

I forget source, so maybe not true, but I remember reading that 40% of all transport (sea, road etc) was fossil fuels. As less fossils needed for cars, less diesel needed for tanker lorries, less diesel by tanker ship, less bunker fuel to fuel ships. Virtuous circle. Also, in many countries lorry drivers are getting harder to find and more expensive. Electricity is virtually universal, perhaps needs higher capacity.

American carmakers already have a hard time selling EVs

Yep, but that's down to the products and dealers. Not efficient - design, battery sizing, operating.

Import tariffs will only work if Mexican-produced cars will be affected, which they could be.

I'm in the UK and it's my opinion that self sufficiency has been held back by lobbying and lies (fossil fuels>lobbyists>media>politicians) - we could have been near 100% renewables for electricity generation years ago. That would have reduced economic case for gas investment.

One part of Elon's message is that ALL subsidies should be cut - including to fossil fuels. That's unlikely, that's probably a key part of future electrification of the USA and the World

 

[cwerdna]

Okay... but what will happen when gasoline (and diesel) prices do come down when the stuff
becomes abundantly supplyable because of way more drilling...
and at the same time EV tax credits are canecelled?

American carmakers already have a hard time selling EVs. Chinese carmakers may even
deal them a death blow... unless of couse Trump will raise import tariffs.

It looks like you voted 2030 at Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll". Still stand by that? I still stand by my mine of after 2040 and that's irrespective of who gets elected next as US President. It will be further out if Trump wins.

 

[voyager]

It looks like you voted 2030 at Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll". Still stand by that? I still stand by my mine of after 2040 and that's irrespective of who gets elected next as US President. It will be further out if Trump wins.

That was before I thought that DJT had a chance of returning to TWH...

 

[SO16]

i wonder why so many people want to support the house of saud?

They even own the largest US refinery. So the “drill baby drill” crowd is still supporting them.

And since oil is a global commodity that Russia supplies, it also supports Putin.

True energy independence is massively reducing our use of oil. I wish more people could figure that out.

We should also reduce the subsidies big oil gets. Gas should be closer to $7 per gallon minimum. Remove all subsidies and EVs would still be very enticing.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Because Trump's policy of ending Government Subsidies aligns with Elon Musk's official principle:

Elon Musk says the US should ‘get rid of all’ government subsidies

Citing the federal deficit

www.theverge.com

"he doesn’t think the United States needs the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill — or any government subsidies, for that matter. “Just delete them all,” "

"
Musk also said he doesn’t believe the US government should be giving out subsidies to expand charging infrastructure — though that provision is in the infrastructure bill that Biden already signed into law.
“Do we need support for gas stations? We don’t. So there’s no need for this,” Musk said."

Hell is gonna freeze before Trump (or any other US president, for that matter) cancels *ALL* the subsidies.
I can understand what Musk said (in the past) but at the same time we are talking about nothing: there is no way whatsoever that oil and gas are not gonna be subsidized, it has been the status quo for almost a century. People don't even know there are subsidies for oil and gas.
The most likely scenario is that Trump cancels IRA but not the other subsidies.

 

[voyager]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750489946354299343

 

[SO16]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750489946354299343

Many article authors and comments about this are from people thinking that the Chinese EVs are only a threat to other EV manufacturers like Tesla. Wow…. Are they in for a surprise..

 

[dbeiler]

We should also reduce the subsidies big oil gets. Gas should be closer to $7 per gallon minimum. Remove all subsidies and EVs would still be very enticing.

Removing the $0.28 a gallon in fuel subsidies wouldn't put gasoline anywhere near $7 a gallon. ICE driver pay $0.18 per gallon of gasoline ($0.24 in diesel) in Federal road tax; EV drivers pay zero dollars in Federal road tax. Would ICE drivers suddenly switch to EV if we removed all subsidies and the fuel cost went up by $0.10 a gallon? I doubt it.

 

[SO16]

Removing the $0.28 a gallon in fuel subsidies wouldn't put gasoline anywhere near $7 a gallon. ICE driver pay $0.18 per gallon of gasoline ($0.24 in diesel) in Federal road tax; EV drivers pay zero dollars in Federal road tax. Would ICE drivers suddenly switch to EV if we removed all subsidies and the fuel cost went up by $0.10 a gallon? I doubt it.

So many costs are buried in other ways. Direct subsidies. Oil cleanups. Trillions spent on Middle East wars. Health related costs, etc.

The True Cost of Gasoline: $15 Per Gallon | Smart Cities Dive

Smart Cities

www.smartcitiesdive.com

“Other countries, working to bear the cost of gasoline use, enact “eco taxes” to direct funding toward social programs and renewable energy. Germany, for example, charges about $1 per gallon as an eco tax in order to fund these programs. Germans pay more than $8 a gallon for gasoline and in Netherlands, gasoline is close to $9.”

Gas prices in Germany and Netherlands are slightly down since this article but still near 8.

Yes, this includes a tax vs subsidies but that tax is to help get away from using oil that has so many other costs.

And yes, oil companies do often pay a fine or a portion of the cleanup bill for oil spills but ultimately is just a fraction of true costs.

Oil Spills by the Numbers

A look at Exxon Valdez and early reports from the gulf show that we will be looking at devastating economic and environmental consequences, write Susan Lyon and Daniel Weiss.

www.americanprogress.org

“But after nearly 15 years in appeals, the case finally reached the U.S. Supreme Court last year. The justices reduced that $2.5 billion in punitive damages to just more than $507 million.”

(Even though costs were estimated at around 7 billion in damages.)

 

[David_Cary]

The IRA (poorly named law and already used acronym) is a law that is one the books. It is not something that Trump has the ability to change. It would require getting past a senate filibuster to pass if there was an even a will to get that far in Congress.

I am not saying it isn't possible, it just isn't something Trump can do by himself - at least not legally.

If Trump becomes president, we have a lot bigger problems to worry about. He says a lot of things and it doesn't mean he has the power to make it happen.

 

[SpicyPaneer]

If there is one thing that Trump is clear about, it is to "drill - drill - drill" for more oil and gas,
and to end Biden's electric car policies.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749869966956933449

Which makes it the more wondrous why Elon Musk is reportdedly endorsing Trump.

View attachment 1011718

Don’t care, I already purchased my 2 Tesla vehicles.

 

[voyager]

WtF is this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753201280091103722

 

[SO16]

That’s not Trump’s account.

Elon has said the opposite many times.

But the fact that he laughed at this post definitely added fuel for the climate deniers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753373332278333944

 

[aubreymcfato]

Apparently Elon is OK with Trump, even if he doesn't agrere...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753857602981634321

 

[Raffy.Roma]

WtF is this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753201280091103722

Sorry I didn't take part to this thread because I don't like to participate to a political thread like this but when it comes to the Climate Change issue, which is a scientific issue, I am intervening.
Elon recently took part to a political event in Italy in front of the Italian Government and said that the Climate Change issue is a serious matter, NOT a hoax.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Sorry I didn't take part to this thread because I don't like to participate to a political thread like this but when it comes to the Climate Change issue, which is a scientific issue, I am intervening.
Elon recently took part to a political event in Italy in front of the Italian Government and said that the Climate Change issue is a serious matter, NOT a hoax.

John Kerry discusses relationship between climate change and security

Former Secretary of State Kerry calls climate change one of the biggest threats facing the nation.

news.harvard.edu

To this concern I wish to report this article pointing out that the Special Presidential Envoy for Climate and Former Secretary of State John Kerry says that the Climate Change issue is a threat to National Security and as such has NO POLITICAL COLOR.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Sorry I didn't take part to this thread because I don't like to participate to a political thread like this but when it comes to the Climate Change issue, which is a scientific issue, I am intervening.
Elon recently took part to a political event in Italy in front of the Italian Government and said that the Climate Change issue is a serious matter, NOT a hoax.

I'm guessing, but with the work done on Tesla Master Plan Part 3 and X-Prize funding being some time ago, Elon may have filed climate change under "answered". I've noticed this kind of pattern with Elon, he's thinking the future is now as it's HIS now that he's working on. I think others are still on step 1 or 2 of 10, fighting the previous war, not the next one. Elon may be concentrating on FIXING and ACTION - (see *below), finding those who talk about doom but haven't read, commented on or promoted an actionable plan like Master Plan Part 3 - ignorant, slow, irrelevant or quaint.

I seem to remember Elon saying that Master Plan part 3 could be done globally in 10 years rather than 20. In his mind he probably thinks that the heaviest polluters (often most "advanced" economies) could do it in say 5 years - so bulk of work to switch to renewables done soon, others following and then fix the atmospheric CO2.

I personally believe that 60-70% (heading towards 100% including interconnects and nuclear) of the UK's electricity could ALREADY be Solar, Wind and Battery now if renewables had been supported all those years ago. Most recent onshore wind projects were given go-ahead many years ago (before 2012-2016 changes to stop onshore wind & solar, I forget exact dates, so depressing). Something like 2,500 wind turbines were estimated to be missing due to this. Additionally, all kinds of subsidy changes including lowering renewables below fossil fuel subsidies took place to further reduce renewables.

Oil money affected renewables greatly in Europe. I believe that several blood-thirsty and inept petro-dictators paid shills in UK and other parts of Europe in order to delay renewables. Ukraine shattered some of that and showed what we could have done so much earlier. We're making progress now, high interest rates do slow down some big projects though.


* X-prize - $100 million in prize money - Elon Musk is a benefactor (probably main one, according to Wikipedia) - Sponsors

Elsewhere on the prize site:-

"WE WANT TEAMS TO BUILD REAL SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE A MEASURABLE IMPACT AT A GIGATON LEVEL. WHATEVER IT TAKES. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE.

Elon Musk"

Wikipedia - Xprize Foundation - Wikipedia

2021 Gigaton Scale Carbon Removal​

Funded by Elon Musk and the Musk Foundation, the $100 million carbon removal competition is the so far largest incentive prize in history. It is aimed "to inspire and help scale efficient solutions to collectively achieve the 10 gigaton per year carbon removal target by 2050, to help fight climate change and restore the Earth’s carbon balance".[48][49]

In April 2022, XPRIZE and the Musk Foundation announced that in celebration of Earth Day, 15 teams had been designated as milestone winners in the $100 million XPRIZE carbon removal competition. The milestone winners have received $1 million each, with the overall winners to be awarded $80 million in 2025

MEET THE COMPETITORS IN THE $100M XPRIZE CARBON REMOVAL

climate, change, innovators, teams, musk, peter, diamandis, carbon, removal

www.xprize.org

On Earth Day, 2021, Peter H. Diamandis and Elon Musk launched the largest incentive prize in history — $100M to develop carbon removal technologies at scale. Now, nearly a year later, XPRIZE is gearing up to announce 15 Milestone Award Winners based on teams’ progress in creating and demonstrating sustainable solutions for carbon dioxide removal.

Since launch, teams from across the globe have signed up for the competition, submitting their ideas for how to help mitigate climate change. In total, a whopping 1,133 teams joined the competition, making this group the largest collection of innovators working to solve humanity’s biggest problem.

Visit the map on the prize page to learn more about any and all of the 1,133 teams and the Top 60 Navigate through the competitors by filtering through their solution type (air, land, oceans, and rocks) or level of achievement (sign up, qualified competitors, Top 60, student winners). You can also find teams near you to cheer on and support.

As for the $50M grand prize and $30M runner-up awards that will be announced on Earth Day, 2025, registration is still open until 2024 to anyone and everyone who is interested to compete. In fact, after the announcement of the Milestone Winners, the competition resets entirely! The submission requirements, expectations, and eligibility for the Grand Prize round will be different next time. To win, teams must submit proof of a working carbon removal project at a scale of at least 1000 tons per year.

Who will win their share of the $15 million Milestone Awards? Find out Earth Day, April 22, 2022.