Given the track record of the companies involved, I fully expect the range and acceleration to be really disappointing when released. I'd love to be wrong, but I've seen far too many exciting EV announcements end up with the same old specs as every other EV except Tesla. I see nothing to convince me differently this time around (don't get me wrong, there will be some increase, but far short of doubling current battery capacity). I notice that despite InsideEV's wild ass guessing, the Hyundai announcement makes absolutely no mention of increased range.
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Given the track record of the companies involved, I fully expect the range and acceleration to be really disappointing when released. I'd love to be wrong, but I've seen far too many exciting EV announcements end up with the same old specs as every other EV except Tesla. I see nothing to convince me differently this time around (don't get me wrong, there will be some increase, but far short of doubling current battery capacity). I notice that despite InsideEV's wild ass guessing, the Hyundai announcement makes absolutely no mention of increased range.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Load bearing elements. As I understand it an increase in weight increases the forces on parts at a greater than 1:1 correlation.
So, Tesla is building a battery factory to support it's only mass-marked model. This factory will produce as much lithium battery cells as the combined word production was in 2013.
And now LG will be producing battery cells to support mass marked models from Nissan, Renault, GM, Hyundai and VW? And how many more?
Anyone has any data on how many factories they are building now to support this demand? Or is the plan just to produce a few cars to show "me too!"? If it's the later then I don't see any problems for Tesla...
If LG is really capable of producing enough batteries for all of this, then Tesla has to hurry up and start producing Model 3 on schedule. Not like with Model X where they have all the time they want as long as they can sell every Model S they produce.
That's why I think Model 3 will be on time in 2017. And while it may be some competition by then, I don't think anyone other then Leaf may be of any threat to Tesla on the mass marked, and my guess is that Leaf still only on about 150 EPA miles at that time. And with no "supercharger" network.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Given the track record of the other companies I expect the exact opposite. Most of them at most have some compliance cars under their belt and not much else, so not much of a track record to speak of. The front runners right now are the Leaf, the i3, and some Renaults. For the Leaf, Nissan was planning in-house chemistry, but it's looking increasingly like it's not going to be ready in time, so the latest rumor is that they planning to put their egg in the LG Chem basket along with Renault.
BMW is working with Samsung SDI which already indicated their high density chemistry won't be ready until 2019.
http://insideevs.com/samsung-sdi-from-130-whkg-to-250-whkg-by-2019-and-300-whkg-in-≈2020/
GM's most promising investment was in 2011 into Envia, which seemed likely to come out with a cheaper high density chemistry. However, that went up in flames, so now their egg is also in LG Chem's basket.
Your link shows Hyundai also plans to use the same LG Chem chemistry. And also the announcement as others point out, do not mention any range increase at all, but rather a weight decrease. Which means it might just be used for compliance purposes (optimized for the compliance friendly ~80 miles EPA range).
So basically everyone is betting on LG Chem's so far still non-existent high density NMC coming in on time and on budget. While Tesla is just going with some slightly improved version of the NCA cells already in the Model S. I think Tesla stands a much better chance.
We could learn more pretty soon:
WSJ: GM to release the $30,000 Chevy Bolt electric vehicle in 2017
The big news is not the car, but the battery. At this point, both the supplier and the customers must feel pretty confident:
Large car companies don't sign supplier agreements without a road map, due diligence or clear supply volume projections. LG has been signing various multi-billion contracts lately (GM, Renault, Volvo...). Either LG duped half the industry and lawsuits will fly or LG will deliver by around 2017.
I believe they will deliver. Competitors like Samsung will also not stand by idle (otherwise, they lose their customers such as BMW to LG over time).
I do not think the Model 3 will beat most of these new EV competitors to market, especially not on a global scale.
The Model will enter a very crowded field of PHEVs and EVs by 2018-2019.
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I agree with you. Its going to be very important to make the Model 3 as desirable as the Model S is. It needs to be fast and beautiful. The Bolt will look like a appliance like the Volt does (I don't mind the look of the Volt but its not beautiful) and Tesla needs to nail the design, inside and out. To use a computer analogy, Tesla needs to be Apple to GM's Microsoft.
It won't be just the Bolt as a lone competitor. LG has supply agreements with over 10 (!) OEMs. If they also get Nissan as rumored, they will achieve huge economies of scale in EV batteries.
The Model 3 will compete with at least 5-10 EV models by 2018-2019, pretty hard to stand out. The upper end of the segment from $40-50k will have German entries and on the lower end you will have many Asian entries.
It's not hard to imagine squeezed margins and lots of rebates. Not promising for a small competitor like Tesla...especially if the Model 3 arrives late.
Optimists can call this 'FUD'. We shall see.
The Model 3 will compete with at least 5-10 EV models by 2018-2019, pretty hard to stand out. The upper end of the segment from $40-50k will have German entries and on the lower end you will have many Asian entries.
It's not hard to imagine squeezed margins and lots of rebates. Not promising for a small competitor like Tesla...especially if the Model 3 arrives late.
Optimists can call this 'FUD'. We shall see.
I know its not just the Bolt. That's why Tesla has to stand out from the competition by being a premium brand with second to none design. They already have better branding than GM.
Besides isn't EV choice/mass market adoption what Tesla wants?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
LG does not have capacity for significant volume for 10 OEM's. They might be able to do compliance numbers.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Also, LG's batteries cost about twice what Tesla is paying so all the other manufacturers will have a cost disadvantage (as well as possible supply disadvantage if they want to do anything in higher volumes than compliance cars).
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Where is LG's main battery manufacturing facility, and what is its current capacity as far as kWh/year?
Large car companies have billions to invest each and every calendar year.
Samsung and LG are expanding factories and building new ones in Asia. Same in America and Europe next to (car) customer facilities.
I don't imagine the OEMs and LG/Samsung signing multi-billion battery supplier contracts without a clear road map, volume projections and scenarios in case demand rises.
As for pricing, why should LG's batteries cost twice in the future? Nobody knows how effective Tesla's pricing will be against future plants from competitors. LG and Samsung don't stand still until 2017-2020, they know a thing or two about manufacturing efficiently on mass-scale.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Do you have any projected capacity numbers? Because we know what Tesla and Panasonic are shooting for. I'd also be interested in hearing your criticism of these other battery companies building factories that will "soon be outdated", you know, the way you criticized Tesla and the gigafactory.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...s-to-target-tesla-model-s-plug-in-hybrids-too
Summary:
Audi is planning a Model X competitor for late 2018/early 2019. For smaller cars they are going the PHEV route with the A3.
BMW places their bet on a PHEV car designed around the 5-series platform, powered by dual electric motors backed by a 245-hp gasoline range extender. The concept is expected to be revealed in 2017.
Mercedes Benz plans a Model X competitor by 2019, with sedans by 2021. Of the 3 major German luxury makers, they are the only ones with pure EV ambitions.
The Germans are basically defending their high-end, where Tesla is attacking their more expensive, high-end products. I don't see a 3-series or C-class BEV on their roadmaps. No, the BMW i5 doesn't count, as it is a stretched i3.
And from the Asian brands:
Honda and Toyota appear to be going all-in with hydrogen cars. Toyota's Mirai goes on sale this year, and Honda's FCEV goes on sale in 2016. Honda officials have gone on record as saying that the company believes that BEVs are appropriate only for urban use.
Nissan on the other hand has been serious about electric cars for years, and I expect good things from them.
I haven't seen anything from the smaller Japanese companies like Subaru or Mazda, on what they plan as far as non-gasoline vehicles. Subaru and Mazda can barely keep up with Honda on gasoline powertrain technology as it stands (on overall fuel economy and power curve/RPM metrics their engines are noticeably inferior to Honda engines).
Hyundai has indicated that it would bring a mid-size BEV to market in 2016, but they have invested heavily in Hydrogen cars and continue to insist that Hydrogen cars are the future. Other than that, Hyundai has provided no specifics on its BEV. Hyundai has a history of talking big and not delivering. Their 40 MPG claims for the Elantra compact car were found to be false. Their hybrids have not lived up to performance or sales expectations. On top of that, Hyundai cars have serious deficiencies in chassis design, which manifests itself in poor handling characteristics and ride quality versus peer vehicles from Honda and Toyota. Hyundai's past strategy has been to push products full of checklist features to market quickly, and hope to outsell Honda and Toyota based on trinkets. This doesn't work out in the long run, as evidenced by the inability of the Elantra or Sonata to put any significant pressure on Accord/Camry & Civic/Corolla.
I don't call your assertions FUD. I think they are poorly informed statements.
I have been analyzing the automotive industry for years and I read a lot of material on car companies and what they are planning. I sense that they are hedging their bets rather than going full force into BEVs. In general, this kind of management does not produce standout products.
This is not to say that Tesla won't face serious future competition, because anything can happen. I call these things as I see them, and I currently do not see any evidence that there will be 5-10 BEVs that are so good (influential in the same manner as the BMW 3-series) that it would make the Tesla difficult to stand out by the 2018 time frame.
They have the same problem, that's why I think smaller local plants make more sense for the time being, they can always ramp up. My "outdated" or "overinvestment (slow demand)" criticism also applied to Nissan and to Panasonic after the Sanyo takeover. Review their recent annual reports on how much they had to write down (it's billions of USD for both Nissan and Panasonic) in EV plant investments.
The difference between Nissan and Tesla? Renault-Nissan could (hat was different 15 years ago) afford these huge write-downs and move on, Tesla would be in serious trouble.
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The quoted Automobile article (linked by greencarreports) contained quite a few errors concerning Porsche and is incomplete.
Your list above only summarizes what has been announced publicly, some car makers play their cards close to the chest (Ford is one such example). There are many other companies working on BEVs such as VW (besides Audi), Mitsubishi, Renault, Volvo and lots of others that are strong in Europe and Asia.
Take for example Hyundai: They only announced their 2016 EV plans publicly in mid-2014. Had you compiled that list in early 2014, Hyundai wouldn't be on it.
There will be many more EVs and PHEVs/EREVs coming from all major car makers before 2020, it's a given because of upcoming regulations in China and Europa.
Yes, some don't like BEVs (FCA, Toyota, Honda) at the moment, but that doesn't mean others won't make great PHEVs and EVs.
China will be key, there will be many new BEV entrants. Every fourth passenger car will be sold in China. Tesla needs a car and battery plant there asap if it really wants to compete on a global scale. That will again take years.
Tesla had an opportunity to make the Model 3 stand out had it launched in 2015-2016. Now it will likely be just one of a dozen available EVs in the $30-50k price segment, especially it it arrives by 2019 only. My prediction at the moment is H2 2018, but that could turn out to be quite optimistic.
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bluenation
Member
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I think you mean in the hundred million range, not multi-billion. And a vast majority the LG Chem contracts you are talking about are for hybrids and PHEVs, not BEVs. These contracts would be using the lower density LMO/NMC hybrid chemistry, which is not at all viable for a 200 mile BEV. Take a look at their roadmap:
http://insideevs.com/lg-chem-supply-200-mile-battery-2016/
For their next generation high density NMC chemistry, the only ones we are pretty much sure they have a contract for is GM and Renault (with Nissan being a possibility). Looking more closely at the Hyundai announcement, it was ambiguous enough that Hyundai could be talking about lower density LMO/NMC cells also (since Hyundai didn't mention significant range improvements, it's only the speculation of the article writer).
LG has indicated they will start production of their next gen cells around 2017, that doesn't mean they will be ready for a pack yet, or a car.
The Model 3 might not "beat them to market", but at the same time the Model 3 might not be in the same market position either. It's no secret the Model 3 is aimed at the 3 series (a RWD premium compact), while for example the Bolt is based on the Sonic hatchback (a FWD economy subcompact). Given the limited price gap between the two that's how the Tesla will "stand out". And Tesla's supercharger network is also a huge strength. I would know as I'm in the market for such an EV. If by 2017 the CCS/CHAdeMO networks are not build out yet to allow a comfortable trip from SF to LA, the Model 3 will be the only choice for me. All that range is useless if there is no charging network to allow longer trips.
I have spent 10 years in the auto industry and its full of this type of management. A shake up of the industry like Tesla is doing could only have come from outside. The automakers are too scared to do anything that's actually revolutionary.
How many of those dozen EV's will be anything more than an appliance? Tesla has shown they want to differentiate themselves by producing an EV that is exciting.
You also make it sound like Tesla wants to sell millions of EV's a year. Is that really their plan?
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