The Model 3 will compete with at least 5-10 EV models by 2018-2019, pretty hard to stand out. The upper end of the segment from $40-50k will have German entries and on the lower end you will have many Asian entries.
Optimists can call this 'FUD'. We shall see.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...s-to-target-tesla-model-s-plug-in-hybrids-too
Summary:
Audi is planning a Model X competitor for late 2018/early 2019. For smaller cars they are going the PHEV route with the A3.
BMW places their bet on a PHEV car designed around the 5-series platform, powered by dual electric motors backed by a 245-hp gasoline range extender. The concept is expected to be revealed in 2017.
Mercedes Benz plans a Model X competitor by 2019, with sedans by 2021. Of the 3 major German luxury makers, they are the only ones with pure EV ambitions.
The Germans are basically defending their high-end, where Tesla is attacking their more expensive, high-end products. I don't see a 3-series or C-class BEV on their roadmaps. No, the BMW i5 doesn't count, as it is a stretched i3.
And from the Asian brands:
Honda and
Toyota appear to be going all-in with hydrogen cars. Toyota's Mirai goes on sale this year, and Honda's FCEV goes on sale in 2016. Honda officials have gone on record as saying that the company believes that BEVs are appropriate only for urban use.
Nissan on the other hand has been serious about electric cars for years, and I expect good things from them.
I haven't seen anything from the smaller Japanese companies like
Subaru or
Mazda, on what they plan as far as non-gasoline vehicles. Subaru and Mazda can barely keep up with Honda on gasoline powertrain technology as it stands (on overall fuel economy and power curve/RPM metrics their engines are noticeably inferior to Honda engines).
Hyundai has indicated that it would bring a mid-size BEV to market in 2016, but they have invested heavily in Hydrogen cars and continue to insist that Hydrogen cars are the future. Other than that, Hyundai has provided no specifics on its BEV. Hyundai has a history of talking big and not delivering. Their 40 MPG claims for the Elantra compact car were found to be false. Their hybrids have not lived up to performance or sales expectations. On top of that, Hyundai cars have serious deficiencies in chassis design, which manifests itself in poor handling characteristics and ride quality versus peer vehicles from Honda and Toyota. Hyundai's past strategy has been to push products full of checklist features to market quickly, and hope to outsell Honda and Toyota based on trinkets. This doesn't work out in the long run, as evidenced by the inability of the Elantra or Sonata to put any significant pressure on Accord/Camry & Civic/Corolla.
I don't call your assertions FUD. I think they are poorly informed statements.
I have been analyzing the automotive industry for years and I read a lot of material on car companies and what they are planning. I sense that they are hedging their bets rather than going full force into BEVs. In general, this kind of management does not produce standout products.
This is not to say that Tesla won't face serious future competition, because
anything can happen. I call these things as I see them, and I currently do not see any evidence that there will be 5-10 BEVs that are so good (influential in the same manner as the BMW 3-series) that it would make the Tesla difficult to stand out by the 2018 time frame.