I based my statement on a few times when I've parked my car for over 24 hours and seen very little range loss. (Periods range from 1.5 days to 3.5 days; I have yet to park it for longer than that.) These have averaged about 2 miles of loss per day, but when I refrain from using the Tesla app for a parking session of over a day, the range loss is usually under 2 miles per day. In a quick perusal of my TeslaFi data, the record is a 41-hour period with 1.31 miles of loss (0.77 miles of range loss per day). That one's unusual because the car didn't wake up on its own. Over a period of more than a day, the car is likely to go from sleep to idle at least once for half an hour or an hour, as you say, even if you don't poke at it with the app or in some other way. When that happens, you're likely to lose at least half a mile's range, and often more than that, on top of the baseline sleeping range loss.