Also, from looking at some of the spreadsheets, it seems that even though net unit volumes are higher, the big reason for flat to declining revenues (YoY) are due to the ASP of S,X coming down by about $14k (about $243M in potential/lost revenue) and M3 ASP coming down by about $6k ($470M revenue), in addition to about a 10k drop in S,X unit sales ($910M revenue). (Total about $1.6B in potential revenue.)
In other words, gains in net unit sales were offset by significant declines in ASPs across the board and a significant decline in the high end S,X unit sales.
I guess some of these declines are expected, particularly M3 ASP (as lower trim models were introduced), but the significant S,X ASP and unit sales declines is what I think was not unexpected (especially if we were looking forward from last year).
This is spot on. Although as a long term investor I am not too disappointed by this, because I don't think it influences Tesla's long term potential much, if at all. The S+X have sort of served their purpose, and it makes more sense right now to focus on 3+Y+Truck than to refresh S+X.
S+X brought in ~9B in revenue and ~2.25B in profits in their BEST year (2018).
3 will bring in about ~14.5B in revenue, and ~2.35B in profits this year, and still has a lot of room for further growth.
Y could bring in as much as 45B in revenue and close to 10B in profits per year at full scale.
Truck will also bring in significantly more than S+X ever have and ever will.
Another important consideration is that for now they appear battery cell supply constrained, and having a larger # of FSD capable cars on the road will mean more profits from the future Tesla Network. Thus it makes sense to produce more vehicles with smaller batteries than less vehicles with bigger batteries until they resolve their battery cell supply constraint.