@Nick B
It knows ambient, but that does not matter. The tire needs a certain PSI in it. The amount of self heating is fairly the same regardless of outside temp. Therefore, the resting/ cold temp is a constant. If it is -20 out, the air in the tire will never reach the temp is was in the fall when you filled the tires, not will the tires reach the required pressure.
They need more air molecules in winter and less in summer. So you need to add/ remove air as the seasons change.
I agree with you if the indicators are constantly showing lower pressure but if they pop up once per 2 week because the temperature has suddenly dropped by 10 degrees that I wouldn't start worrying about it (thats just my personal opinion). For example, my tire pressure is at 45 psi and last month (once) the sensors showed lower pressure. My car does not indicate which tires need more air (2014 model), it was -27 celcius outside. Did I go to the gas station to put more air in and to manually verify all 4 tires)? I think not (freezing as hell out there! =/)! If it would show constantly lower psi then yes you should put more air in (like you explained).