Most underestimated threat to Tesla?

[RobStark]

Getting to highway speeds on highway on ramps is very important.

BMW sold over 16k i3s in 2014.

VW sold a grand total of 9700 BEVs and PHEVs despite having overall 5 times higher volume.

 

[AustinPowers]

Getting to highway speeds on highway on ramps is very important.

True, but for a start, 10.4 for the e-Golf isn't a bad 0-60 time (the Leaf takes 11.5 for example, many everyman ICEs take even longer - our Touran BlueMotion TDI takes 12.8 and certainly doesn't feel underpowered when entering the Autobahn), plus highways aren't the main focus for short range EVs like the e-Golf or the i3 anyway.

 

[ggr]

Ok, this is offtopic, but in answer to these acceleration times: 0-60 is not very important on these two commuter EVs.
0-31 times are far more important in daily driving, as that is the acceleration from a standstill at a red light for example to the standard inner-city/town maximum over here.
And interestingly - with a warm engine (which is the way this has to be measured to be realistic) - the 0-31 time of the e-Golf is 3.3 seconds, versus 3.1 of the i3 (and also the P85+ by the way). So almost identical. And having driven all three of the mentioned cars I can only second that it really feels the same. Especially the P85+ disappoints in that respect, as it loses quite a bit of its oomph after the engine gets warm.

There's something very wrong in your numbers, I'm afraid. Firstly, the only time motor temp matters is if it is overheating and the software dials back the power, but that certainly isn't going to happen in the kind of city driving you seem to be talking about. So please clarify what you mean by "warm"? I get 3/4 of the way up a 6000' mountain, accelerating out of every hairpin, before the motor or battery overheat.

Secondly, your numbers say that it takes 3.1 seconds for a P85+ to get to 31mph, but only 1.1 seconds to get from there to 60? That's another 29 mph, for an acceleration that's much better than a P85D. I can also promise you that the acceleration feels pretty constant up to that point; you'd certainly notice such a speedup.

 

[AustinPowers]

By "warm" I mean after having driven for about an hour in mixed conditions (inner city, country roads, short stretches of Autobahn). Maybe what it felt to me was off, but a test in a respected motor magazine I read recently (done in conjunction with the independent TUV organisation that in Germany is also responsible for the mandatory tests that your car has to pass bi-annually to be legally roadworthy) confirmed what the cars felt to me. That's also where I got the exact numbers. And by the way, according to that test, it took 3.4 seconds from 31 to 60, not 1.1 seconds. All under "warm" conditions. And I am sure that didn't mean "overheating", because they tested all cars under "cold" and "warm" conditions, just as I did on my test drives. And they explicitly mentioned that the P85+ lost far more in acceleration than the others. And even though I can't confirm the exact numbers from my own experience of course, I can confirm that it certainly felt that way to me too. Not that the P85+ acceleration didn't feel impressive for a car of its size and weight even under "warm" (i.e. after having driven for a while) conditions, but still.

Here are the exact 0-60 times they measured under cold / warm conditions.

Nissan Leaf: 11.1 / 11.5
Smart ED: 10.7 / 10.9
Model S P85+: 4.7 / 6.5
BMW i3: 7.3 / 7.3
VW e-Golf: 10.3 / 10.4

If you are interested, I can mail you the pdf with the complete test, but it is in German.

 

[30seconds]

By "warm" I mean after having driven for about an hour in mixed conditions (inner city, country roads, short stretches of Autobahn). Maybe what it felt to me was off, but a test in a respected motor magazine I read recently (done in conjunction with the independent TUV organisation that in Germany is also responsible for the mandatory tests that your car has to pass bi-annually to be legally roadworthy) confirmed what the cars felt to me. That's also where I got the exact numbers. And by the way, according to that test, it took 3.4 seconds from 31 to 60, not 1.1 seconds. All under "warm" conditions. And I am sure that didn't mean "overheating", because they tested all cars under "cold" and "warm" conditions, just as I did on my test drives. And they explicitly mentioned that the P85+ lost far more in acceleration than the others. And even though I can't confirm the exact numbers from my own experience of course, I can confirm that it certainly felt that way to me too. Not that the P85+ acceleration didn't feel impressive for a car of its size and weight even under "warm" (i.e. after having driven for a while) conditions, but still.

Here are the exact 0-60 times they measured under cold / warm conditions.

Nissan Leaf: 11.1 / 11.5
Smart ED: 10.7 / 10.9
Model S P85+: 4.7 / 6.5
BMW i3: 7.3 / 7.3
VW e-Golf: 10.3 / 10.4

If you are interested, I can mail you the pdf with the complete test, but it is in German.

What was the Tesla time? 6.5? Really?

 

[AustinPowers]

What was the Tesla time? 6.5? Really?

That's what they published.
And as I said, it was a test by a respected motor magazine in conjunction with the independent TUV organisation, not by some automaker trying to dimiss the competition.

The article about the test gave a neutral account of the advantages and shortcomings of all the tested vehicles in the specific areas tested. The Model S scored quite well in many aspects, but the lack of constancy in the power output was explicitly mentioned as a major disadvantage. And these testers are engineers/technical experts. I don't think they would make such statements lightly if they weren't true.

 

[30seconds]

That's what they published.
And as I said, it was a test by a respected motor magazine in conjunction with the independent TUV organisation, not by some automaker trying to dimiss the competition.

The article about the test gave a neutral account of the advantages and shortcomings of all the tested vehicles in the specific areas tested. The Model S scored quite well in many aspects, but the lack of constancy in the power output was explicitly mentioned as a major disadvantage. And these testers are engineers/technical experts. I don't think they would make such statements lightly if they weren't true.

That's a bunch of BS. The magazine article was challenged by the German EV association and the magazine refused to reply or provide any details about the test. Also it is very easy to see that this is a significant outlier to every other article reviewing the model S, any report from an owner, YouTube, or if you didn't believe any of these sources you could go schedule a test drive yourself.

i think it is clear that this report is a bunch of lies.


here is something to refresh yourself with the performance characteristics

Tesla Model S vs BMW M5 Drag Race - YouTube

 

[ggr]

By "warm" I mean after having driven for about an hour in mixed conditions (inner city, country roads, short stretches of Autobahn). Maybe what it felt to me was off, but a test in a respected motor magazine I read recently (done in conjunction with the independent TUV organisation that in Germany is also responsible for the mandatory tests that your car has to pass bi-annually to be legally roadworthy) confirmed what the cars felt to me. That's also where I got the exact numbers. And by the way, according to that test, it took 3.4 seconds from 31 to 60, not 1.1 seconds. All under "warm" conditions. And I am sure that didn't mean "overheating", because they tested all cars under "cold" and "warm" conditions, just as I did on my test drives. And they explicitly mentioned that the P85+ lost far more in acceleration than the others. And even though I can't confirm the exact numbers from my own experience of course, I can confirm that it certainly felt that way to me too. Not that the P85+ acceleration didn't feel impressive for a car of its size and weight even under "warm" (i.e. after having driven for a while) conditions, but still.

Here are the exact 0-60 times they measured under cold / warm conditions.

Nissan Leaf: 11.1 / 11.5
Smart ED: 10.7 / 10.9
Model S P85+: 4.7 / 6.5
BMW i3: 7.3 / 7.3
VW e-Golf: 10.3 / 10.4

If you are interested, I can mail you the pdf with the complete test, but it is in German.

Well, I own a P85, and live in Southern California, and last week was out in the desert at a place called Thermal, where it was 90degF (over 30degC), and I can assure you my performance did not drop noticeably at any time, after driving over the mountains from San Diego and then stop-start traffic up to 50mph along the desert highway 111. At least one Porsche driver could attest to this if I could find him again . I'm sorry but I simply don't believe that article's results. It's not scientific unless it's reproducible, and I have never been able to reproduce that behavior.

 

[ecarfan]

And I'm pretty sure the Model S that beat the M5 from zero to one hundred in that video was not a P85D, but just a P85. The Tesla shown in the video has no rear badge, so probably a very early car, and not a D.

Tesla Model S vs BMW M5 Drag Race - YouTube

 

[macpacheco]

I believe that the most underestimated threat to Tesla is that new owners have a tendency to resort to the old ICE when taking long trips. If everyone does not use them for long trips, then Tesla will not become main stream for transportation.

Tesla just needs 5% of the total luxury car market. There's plenty of people that are happy to trade a couple dozen supercharger sessions per year for the performance, safety, fun and tech experience of driving a Tesla.Right now Tesla needs to double superchargers worldwide (from around 400 to 800). With 800 SCs in North America, Europe, Asia and Australia, I suspect the real market for MS+MX is above 200k cars / yr, already considering those that are too conservative / old fashioned to go EV. Until they realize that owning a Tesla (vs a similarly priced ICE) costs less than half. Until the penny pinchers that buy an expensive car but keep it for a decade do the math and see that the Tesla could be free if they drive a lot.

 

[AustinPowers]

That's a bunch of BS. The magazine article was challenged by the German EV association and the magazine refused to reply or provide any details about the test.

Where can I find info about that statement?

Update:
I looked it up. But contrary to what you said it seems to be the other way around. And by the way, it wasn't the German EV association. It was a Tesla owners group / fan club. Call that unbiased!

I refuse to believe the TUV would actively provide false measurements. Plus, as I said, I have driven three of the models they tested myself (i3, e-Golf, P85+) and my personal experience was similar to what they described.

Anyway, again as I said, they didn't say the Model S was a bad car because of what they found. Just that some of the other cars tested fared better in that mentioned aspect of the test.
Perhaps they (and I) had a "Monday model".

 

[VolkerP]

The article blended the TUV test results with the tests done by the magazine's own staff. It was a successful move to lend the credibility of TUV to the overall article. They showed an image of a Model S not able to drive from Stuttgart to Munich (250km), but falling short at 186km or so. That was the result of a partial drive/charge test, recharging the car from household outlet (230V/13A) while the HVAC was running, and extrapolating this using sketchy assumptions on how Model S manages its battery. Completely bogus, and that's what caused the uproar.

Where can you find more: TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer 23.8. Hilden: Die ams im Härtetest der Realität

 

[30seconds]

Where can I find info about that statement?

Update:
I looked it up. But contrary to what you said it seems to be the other way around. And by the way, it wasn't the German EV association. It was a Tesla owners group / fan club. Call that unbiased!

I refuse to believe the TUV would actively provide false measurements. Plus, as I said, I have driven three of the models they tested myself (i3, e-Golf, P85+) and my personal experience was similar to what they described.

Anyway, again as I said, they didn't say the Model S was a bad car because of what they found. Just that some of the other cars tested fared better in that mentioned aspect of the test.
Perhaps they (and I) had a "Monday model".

so then you would agree that the new M5 does 0-60 in about 8 seconds?

 

[AustinPowers]

so then you would agree that the new M5 does 0-60 in about 8 seconds?

How should I know? I have never driven an M5, neither new nor old. I can and will only talk about cars I have actually driven myself.
And my final statement about the article: of course I can't confirm the validity of everything they wrote (one reason being that I have no experience in driving a Smart ED, Renault Twizy or Nissan Leaf). But from my own experience on the test drives I did I can say this and I stand by it, because that is what I experienced firsthand:

i3: great and constant acceleration, quite reliable range display, handling around tight corners a bit awkward (didn't feel as planted as one is used to from BMW)
e-Golf: great acceleration up to innercity speed, adequate above that, constant, highly reliable range display (best of the four EVs I have driven), great handling
P85+: brutal acceleration at the beginning, but not as constant, range display not as reliable as i3 or e-Golf, yet far better than Zoe (see below), great handling all around

Plus, not in the test, but from when I drove it:
Renault Zoe: the first EV I drove. Great car, but range display was highly unreliable.

My 2 cents.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Most underestimated threat to Tesla is possible sociological shift away from automobile dependence in the coming decades.

Many younger people want to live in communities where cars are not necessary, because cars are expensive and require parking space.

Mitigating forces are established road infrastructure and schools. When people have families, they will want to move out of urban areas with bad schools, and the suburbs are still largely designed for car use.

Hyperloop and stationary storage are hedges against this.

There will also always be a need for some flexible vehicles like fire trucks and ambulances.

 

[flankspeed8]

Most underestimated threat to Tesla is possible sociological shift away from automobile dependence in the coming decades.

Many younger people want to live in communities where cars are not necessary, because cars are expensive and require parking space.

Mitigating forces are established road infrastructure and schools. When people have families, they will want to move out of urban areas with bad schools, and the suburbs are still largely designed for car use.

Hyperloop and stationary storage are hedges against this.

There will also always be a need for some flexible vehicles like fire trucks and ambulances.

agreed. Here in Minneapolis, they have goals of increasing downtown occupancy by tens of thousands, but are not making any additional plan for parking because they are hoping and assuming people will be riding the newly built light rail or biking. Personally I don't agree with this but I am not in charge. If you want me to live downtown, you better provide me easy, safe and cheap parking because I am holding onto my car.

 

[bxr140]

Most underestimated threat to Tesla is possible sociological shift away from automobile dependence in the coming decades.

Its an interesting thought experiment, but I don't see it playing out his way. A widespread shift away from personal transportation will be fought every step of the way, in just about every part of the world. Short of fiancial unatainability, everyone wants their own vehicle. Look at China.

Especially with the lack of transportation options in North America (it's a big place and you need to drive to get pretty much anywhere other than travel within larger city centers), I'd bet that the infrastructure will move more towards Jetsons like automation rather than fewer personal vehicles.

Note that automation solves a lot of parking problems.

 

[Robert.Boston]

agreed. Here in Minneapolis, they have goals of increasing downtown occupancy by tens of thousands, but are not making any additional plan for parking because they are hoping and assuming people will be riding the newly built light rail or biking. Personally I don't agree with this but I am not in charge. If you want me to live downtown, you better provide me easy, safe and cheap parking because I am holding onto my car.

My wife and I just moved into the center of a city, and it would be very easy to lose one of our two cars. Too much is still car-centric in America to go all the way down to zero, but it would halve our family's demand for automobiles. With a good ZipCar or similar service around (which we don't have nearby), I could even seen the economic of owning no cars making sense.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Its an interesting thought experiment, but I don't see it playing out his way. A widespread shift away from personal transportation will be fought every step of the way, in just about every part of the world. Short of fiancial unatainability, everyone wants their own vehicle. Look at China.

Especially with the lack of transportation options in North America (it's a big place and you need to drive to get pretty much anywhere other than travel within larger city centers), I'd bet that the infrastructure will move more towards Jetsons like automation rather than fewer personal vehicles.

Note that automation solves a lot of parking problems.

I realize that my views are contrarian, but there are a growing number of people in America, mostly younger adults, who view personal vehicles as a hassle, not just a big expense. If they absolutely must use a car, then ZipCar or Uber are adequate options.

What will keep personal car markets healthy in the "near long-term", by which I mean 10-15 years, is the U.S. public education system, which is locally funded. Middle class to affluent people who want decent public schools for their children are generally going to have to go to the suburbs, where there is enough tax money to fund school districts. Almost no one I know has been willing to place their children in city public schools, which suffer from chronic funding problems. Violence and influence from misbehaving children from troubled areas of town is a huge concern. This alone pushes parents to run for the verdant hills of suburbia when their children hit Kindergarten age. As long as Suburbia exists, cars will be necessary.

I do see some hints that a small number of parents will keep their families in cities and send their children to charter schools (or if they can afford it, private schools). If gentrifiers are successful in getting city schools to the point of acceptability, more people will stay in the city. And as a consequence, car ownership will decline.

I don't know exactly how this will play out, but I think it would not be prudent to discount the possibility that this could happen and have long-term consequences for the automobile industry as a whole, not just Tesla.

Heck, nobody though Tesla would go anywhere, and they were wrong. I was one of those people who was wrong.

 

[stevejust]

I like the Hayward fault earthquake answer. But to me the answer is really the next gen Nissan Leaf.

Everyone just assumes because the Leaf can't hold a candle to the S, there's no way Nissan can compete. But the difference between the next gen Leaf and the Model III might be a lot closer than anyone imagines. An Audi A3 eTron and a Model III might be true competitors by the time we see the III.

All this talk of an Apple iCar makes me roll my eyes, because they can't even seem to roll out a watch, and that's why more in their wheelhouse than a car.