This looks like it's just referring to the referral tickets you won. Did you get a separate email saying that you won 2 tickets in the lottery?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Reeler
Decade of Pure EV Driving
I agree with your reading. I was excited to be able to bring more folks with me, but it is just confirming that I have 2 tix for sure. I bet they don't enter me into the lottery for more. We will know tomorrow.
I assure you my math is correct, and I'm already accounting for the standard deduction (and personal exemptions if you're not a dependent). The standard deduction for Single filers is $6300. The personal exemption amount for this year is $4050. $57,250-$6300-$4050=$46,900 in taxable income (all other assumptions being made). Tax on that is 10% of the first $9,275, 15% on the amount up to $37,650, and 25% on the rest. $927.50+$4256.25+$2312.50 = $7496.25. If you don't believe me, feel free to use any online calculator or try the math out for yourself.
So that's the minimum - certainly if someone has credits, then their income needs to be higher. I was just throwing out the minimum needed to get the full credit.
Last edited:
chickensevil
Active Member
Let's be honest here on the debate between places in line for owners vs everyone else.
First off, NA sales through Q4 is sitting at around 65k. Let's assume going forward NA sales continue to be around 40% of their market share. They are expecting on the high side 90k deliveries this year, so that's another 36k NA sales. Let's also assume 150k for 2017 (seems a bit optimistic) so another 60k. That makes end of 2017, Tesla will be looking at 161k on a decently high side of the scale here.
Also note that Tesla is likely to continue to deliver strongly on their Model S and X into 2018 and Let's say that run rate puts them at 200k, or 50k per quarter (it starts to matter). So roughly another 20k US sales each quarter of 2018. This mean on just their top cars they will breach 200k by optimistically end of Q2 2018.
So let's assume instead what happens, we don't make it through Q2, because in Q1 (and whatever few cars make it out at the end of 2017) are all US sales and they do 20k in Q1 (I am really hoping by this point they will have figured out how to scale quickly...).
How many of the current 65k US owners are going to put a deposit down right away for a M3 *and* go fully optioned on the car? Because you need both things to get your place bumped down. (And if you are hoping to just order a base M3 and expect to get full tax credit, based on the above optimistic expectations, I would get that thought out of your head... not likely to happen... don't even plan for it.)
So the real question here is top trim (Model 3 PXXD). Of the 65k current owners... that 65k includes people who bought 2 or more Model S, or traded up... that is not an insignificant number either. I am going to make a wild guess that autopilot and other upgrade reasons wiped out or caused people to double up on at least 20k cars. So really you are dealing with 45k or so people. Now of those who is going to *want* to buy a fully optioned car? Well, assuming the take rate on performance vs everything else hasn't changed much, that number was around 30%. So 13.5k people. That would be interested in a top tier car. Then of those 13.5k who would actually care to go from a Model S/X to a Model 3 (2nd car, or replace the MS). That is also likely a non-zero number, lets assume another 25% or so.
So, all you need to relatively guarantee that you get the full tax credit, is be, within the first 10k reservations of people who would want a fully optioned car. This doesn't mean you need to be reservation number 10k, I would estimate (assuming they keep NA numbers separated from Europe and Asia) to be a number that is likely less than 45k on the deposit list. Bottom line, if you camp a store, to be first in line at 10AM PST, you will certainly make the cut. I would say even just getting in *before* the event, should safely help you make the cut (again, not competing with the world here, just US).
So TL;DR: If you want to ensure full tax credit and are not a current owner, get your butt to the store on the 31st and hand them 1k. I *really* don't see there being ~40k US reservations by 7PM that night. And if there are, you better believe that Elon is going to end/start with Oh by the way, 40k people have put deposits down in the stores before even seeing the car tonight.
You likely (although not as certain) can wait to get in on a deposit online and still be fine.
First off, NA sales through Q4 is sitting at around 65k. Let's assume going forward NA sales continue to be around 40% of their market share. They are expecting on the high side 90k deliveries this year, so that's another 36k NA sales. Let's also assume 150k for 2017 (seems a bit optimistic) so another 60k. That makes end of 2017, Tesla will be looking at 161k on a decently high side of the scale here.
Also note that Tesla is likely to continue to deliver strongly on their Model S and X into 2018 and Let's say that run rate puts them at 200k, or 50k per quarter (it starts to matter). So roughly another 20k US sales each quarter of 2018. This mean on just their top cars they will breach 200k by optimistically end of Q2 2018.
So let's assume instead what happens, we don't make it through Q2, because in Q1 (and whatever few cars make it out at the end of 2017) are all US sales and they do 20k in Q1 (I am really hoping by this point they will have figured out how to scale quickly...).
How many of the current 65k US owners are going to put a deposit down right away for a M3 *and* go fully optioned on the car? Because you need both things to get your place bumped down. (And if you are hoping to just order a base M3 and expect to get full tax credit, based on the above optimistic expectations, I would get that thought out of your head... not likely to happen... don't even plan for it.)
So the real question here is top trim (Model 3 PXXD). Of the 65k current owners... that 65k includes people who bought 2 or more Model S, or traded up... that is not an insignificant number either. I am going to make a wild guess that autopilot and other upgrade reasons wiped out or caused people to double up on at least 20k cars. So really you are dealing with 45k or so people. Now of those who is going to *want* to buy a fully optioned car? Well, assuming the take rate on performance vs everything else hasn't changed much, that number was around 30%. So 13.5k people. That would be interested in a top tier car. Then of those 13.5k who would actually care to go from a Model S/X to a Model 3 (2nd car, or replace the MS). That is also likely a non-zero number, lets assume another 25% or so.
So, all you need to relatively guarantee that you get the full tax credit, is be, within the first 10k reservations of people who would want a fully optioned car. This doesn't mean you need to be reservation number 10k, I would estimate (assuming they keep NA numbers separated from Europe and Asia) to be a number that is likely less than 45k on the deposit list. Bottom line, if you camp a store, to be first in line at 10AM PST, you will certainly make the cut. I would say even just getting in *before* the event, should safely help you make the cut (again, not competing with the world here, just US).
So TL;DR: If you want to ensure full tax credit and are not a current owner, get your butt to the store on the 31st and hand them 1k. I *really* don't see there being ~40k US reservations by 7PM that night. And if there are, you better believe that Elon is going to end/start with Oh by the way, 40k people have put deposits down in the stores before even seeing the car tonight.
You likely (although not as certain) can wait to get in on a deposit online and still be fine.
chickensevil
Active Member
By the way, as a reminder, the credit drops to 50% for the following 6 months once they breech 200k. Let's assume that happens Q1 of 2018 as I speak about above with them getting 20k out the door by end of March 2018. This means you have until Sept 2018 to get delivered a car to get 50% of the tax credit (on a roughly worst case scenario).
The tax credit falls to 25% of value for the next 6 months after that. So you can in a worst case assume that you should be needing to take delivery by March of 2019 in order to get that.
To put some broad assumptions out there, lets say 20k through Q1 2018 (vin 20k delivered and every reservation turns to a delivery... both extremely unlikely... but lets go with it... try to figure out some worst case expectations), Let's assume great ramping and they do 25k in Q2, 30k in Q3, 40k in Q4 (they tend to do a lot of ramping in Q4... what can I say), and then 40k in Q1/2019. This means to get the 50% tax credit, you want to be the within the 75k VIN number, and to get the 25% tax credit you want to be within the 155k VIN number. Assuming that they do a roughly 50% split NA vs ROW after Q1 you need to get ahead of roughly 67,000 people at the end of the day based on options and former ownership status.
Again, I think your best best is to plan it being realistic to expect some kind of tax credit for getting a top trim model. Even getting just the Model 3 XXD (largest battery) I would expect if you have a reasonably low enough reservation number you have a really good chance of getting *some amount* of tax credit. Anyone getting the base trim... yeah, your odds don't look good at all of getting any amount of tax credit.
The tax credit falls to 25% of value for the next 6 months after that. So you can in a worst case assume that you should be needing to take delivery by March of 2019 in order to get that.
To put some broad assumptions out there, lets say 20k through Q1 2018 (vin 20k delivered and every reservation turns to a delivery... both extremely unlikely... but lets go with it... try to figure out some worst case expectations), Let's assume great ramping and they do 25k in Q2, 30k in Q3, 40k in Q4 (they tend to do a lot of ramping in Q4... what can I say), and then 40k in Q1/2019. This means to get the 50% tax credit, you want to be the within the 75k VIN number, and to get the 25% tax credit you want to be within the 155k VIN number. Assuming that they do a roughly 50% split NA vs ROW after Q1 you need to get ahead of roughly 67,000 people at the end of the day based on options and former ownership status.
Again, I think your best best is to plan it being realistic to expect some kind of tax credit for getting a top trim model. Even getting just the Model 3 XXD (largest battery) I would expect if you have a reasonably low enough reservation number you have a really good chance of getting *some amount* of tax credit. Anyone getting the base trim... yeah, your odds don't look good at all of getting any amount of tax credit.
Bimbels
GoldMember
chickensevil I agree with much of what you said. I can't vouch for the numbers because....who knows....personally I will reassess my stance once the launch is imminent - BUT...what I can say is, of the 65K US owners, I do not think the vast majority are going full on with options. PXXD, etc. There will be plenty, no doubt. But from what I've read, it seems to be pretty split. Many are buying for their kids (not giving them the P - sorry Johnny) or their wives (like me) who don't care/need the P. Many have said they can't see spending 70K (assumption) on a 3 when they can spend a bit more for a CPO or even new S. We'll see how that plays out once this becomes a reality, however.
Reeler
Decade of Pure EV Driving
I thought the credit dropped at the end of the year that they hit 200K? I think if Tesla is near the threshold at the end of 2017, they will ship all units overseas to avoid triggering the credit penalty.
Bimbels
GoldMember
No, the credit drops at the beginning of the second quarter following the 200k trigger. So the quarter following the 200k trigger will still be full credit, but the following quarter it will step down to 50%. That is what I've read on tables posted on this forum, anyway.
MiamiNole
Member
chickensevil, thanks for your post. This was one of the first posts I've seen today that actually addressed the concerns of those wondering how the decision to give reservation priority to current owners affects getting the tax credit. I wasn't even going to attempt to work at determining those percentages and likelihood of tax credit being affected, but I certainly was hoping that someone ELSE would do that!
Now, if EM would go on to spell out what level of options would be given delivery priority, then I would be a happy camper! Of course beggars can't be choosers, but I think everyone would appreciate when to expect each configuration to be delivered for planning purposes alone. The tax credit being there makes it even more important to know that information.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
I don't come close to getting the full credit either. Leasing to own doesn't work (unless Tesla changes the program to make it fair) because the credit is added to the residual. My plan is to delay purchase, if possible, to when the credit drops to 25% and let others claim the full credit since I can't use it. However, I can claim the full $6000 state credit here, so it still works out well.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
You are correct.
A reprise of a post of mine in another thread:
The tax credit phases out for a year and a quarter after Tesla USA sales hit 200k. My guess is that Tesla USA sales won't hit 200k by the time the Model 3 launches. If so, the first cars should be eligible for the tax credit.
Internal Revenue Bulletin - November 30, 2009 - Notice 2009-89
My take on this:
Q0 USA sales hit 200k
Q1 Full credit available, $7500
Q2 50% credit available, $3750
Q3 50% credit available, $3750
Q4 25% credit available, $1875
Q5 25% credit available, $1875
Q6 no credit available
SureValla
Member
you guys need a house in the northeast, my property taxes alone just about get me there...
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
By contrast, real estate is still depressed (but recovering) out here in the boondocks so my valuation for a house on five acres, next to 23 acres of open space, with terrific mountain views is so low that my property tax bill this year is $730. Since I have no mortgage and low property taxes, it has been a long time since I filed Schedule A.
It is possible to live comfortably on very little here and it has been many years since I've locked my house doors. Different world from many other places...
Tam
Well-Known Member
SureValla
Member
hoping that's me someday, sounds like heaven. Was just out in CO skiing this winter and I didn't want to leave!
Your property taxes aren't federal income tax. The credit wouldn't be valid against those taxes - only against what you pay in federal income tax. Am I missing something?
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I haven't looked at the 2015 tables so the numbers have changed but this is what I posted a few months ago
If your "Taxable Income" is $46,550 you might have that liability.
Working down a form 1040 (long form) the labels are
7 - Wages, salaries, tips, etc (think gross income)
a bunch of other possible sources of income
22 - Total income
37 - Adjusted Gross Income
40 - Itemized or Standard Deduction
42 - Exemptions
43 - Taxable income
For anyone with simple taxes 7, 22, 37 will be the same but 40 will be $12,400 for a married couple with no kids and no itemized deductions and line 42 will be $7,900.
meaning for that simple married family of two they'd need line 37 to be $66,850 to get to line 43 being your $46,550 number from the tax table.
for a single person with no dependents or spouse it'd be a lower number but I'm guessing a couple with no kids is likely the closest to simple taxes around the range we want for an example.
(numbers from 2014 tax form, not meant to be tax advice)
I did it from the actual IRS tax tables not by calculating so if you compare vs 2015 has it changed much?
Last edited:
strider
Active Member
You can deduct state/local taxes from your federal income taxes. I think he's saying that the amount of his property taxes is nearly as large as the standard deduction over which allows him to itemize his taxes.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
The difference between your tax table numbers and rnelsonee's numbers is that everyone qualifies for at least one personal exemption and the standard deduction, which reduce taxable income. That means that a single filer would need an income of at least $57k to be paying $7500 in income taxes.
