dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
It's one of the bases of the assumptions in this thread. Which is what I have been criticizing. We have heaps of evidence that Tesla's own "forecasts" of delivery dates are highly suspect.
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Model X Estimated Wait Times for North America
- Thread starter Paul Carter
- Start date
Ah I see .
Agree, while it is interesting to see what models fit Tesla's forecasts, it may be more interesting to do do models that produce forecasts independent of Tesla's.
For that we only have the Model S story as a (very skewed) template, and then maybe current factory activity, supply activity (parts and partnerships) and unofficial TM remarks.
Is there enough actual info on these to make an alternate model? (Not enough for a credible model IMO but enough for fun speculation and playing dart predictions)
Especially since the situation is less "ramping up the X" and is more "from just S, to S and ramped X"
A good game for estimating with so many unknowns is to ask people ranges of key parameters and then run a montecarlo to see what the answer curve looks like.
Nice work Paul, but to me, it brings up questions. Do we really think they produce no more than one per day for an entire month, and then no more than 2 per day for another entire month? And not getting up over 500/week for a full 8 months?
While I'm aware Tesla has a very clear record (ongoing) of missing calendar dates (though the SuperCharger buildout seems a glowing exception) It seems to me the chart is pessimistic. Reasons include:
they have already made thousands of half of this car. Sure, an itemized list of parts differences between S & X would get very long, but they have A LOT of experience making a big chunk of it, relative to what they had going into S prod.
relationships with suppliers are established & hopefully strengthening.
they were not just building a whole new car from scratch a year and a half ago, they were raising up an entire company. Obviously lots more growth is necessary (vital!), but much of the heavy lifting, the laying of the foundation, is done.
Franz recently stated (paraphrasing) design is done, just tweaking little things (I guess that one could be trouble
)
They have an assembly line, employees, factory - working to make cars
Starting to repeat myself. I think the initial ramp up will be much faster, bringing the cumulative totals higher sooner.
While I'm aware Tesla has a very clear record (ongoing) of missing calendar dates (though the SuperCharger buildout seems a glowing exception) It seems to me the chart is pessimistic. Reasons include:
they have already made thousands of half of this car. Sure, an itemized list of parts differences between S & X would get very long, but they have A LOT of experience making a big chunk of it, relative to what they had going into S prod.
relationships with suppliers are established & hopefully strengthening.
they were not just building a whole new car from scratch a year and a half ago, they were raising up an entire company. Obviously lots more growth is necessary (vital!), but much of the heavy lifting, the laying of the foundation, is done.
Franz recently stated (paraphrasing) design is done, just tweaking little things (I guess that one could be trouble
)They have an assembly line, employees, factory - working to make cars
Starting to repeat myself. I think the initial ramp up will be much faster, bringing the cumulative totals higher sooner.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Playing devil's advocate here for a minute (a) because I always love doing that and b) because I think there is a good bid of hopeful optimism in your argument)
1 - yes, this is based on an existing car. How many cars with gull wings have they built? How many cars with (I so hope I'm wrong) cameras as mirrors? How many cars with motors on the front wheels?
2 - yes, I give you the point about the suppliers. With the exception of Panasonic - which needs to more than double their production of batteries for this to work (they'll continue to make and ship Model S, right?)
3 - have you grown a company before? It gets harder, not easier. Trust me. Been there, done that. Every time you double your size it's a lot harder than the last time. And make no mistake, this means doubling the size of their factory staff
4 - Elon stated less than a month ago that he was still making changes to the design. Small changes, but changes. So the new parts need to be manufactured, tools need to be built, then the parts and the car need to be tested, crash tested, etc. For someone like BMW from "design finished" to "first customer sale" takes usually about 36 months.
5 - they have a Model S assembly line and employees to build their production of Model S. They need a new assembly line for Model X (OK, parts can be shared), they need new employees. Thankfully their factory has plenty room to grow.
Please don't take this the wrong way. I realize that you could be spot on and I could be way off the mark. But all experience with Tesla so far makes me believe that your optimism while understandable is possibly not justified. Maybe you'll see at least some of my points
1 - yes, this is based on an existing car. How many cars with gull wings have they built? How many cars with (I so hope I'm wrong) cameras as mirrors? How many cars with motors on the front wheels?
2 - yes, I give you the point about the suppliers. With the exception of Panasonic - which needs to more than double their production of batteries for this to work (they'll continue to make and ship Model S, right?)
3 - have you grown a company before? It gets harder, not easier. Trust me. Been there, done that. Every time you double your size it's a lot harder than the last time. And make no mistake, this means doubling the size of their factory staff
4 - Elon stated less than a month ago that he was still making changes to the design. Small changes, but changes. So the new parts need to be manufactured, tools need to be built, then the parts and the car need to be tested, crash tested, etc. For someone like BMW from "design finished" to "first customer sale" takes usually about 36 months.
5 - they have a Model S assembly line and employees to build their production of Model S. They need a new assembly line for Model X (OK, parts can be shared), they need new employees. Thankfully their factory has plenty room to grow.
Please don't take this the wrong way. I realize that you could be spot on and I could be way off the mark. But all experience with Tesla so far makes me believe that your optimism while understandable is possibly not justified. Maybe you'll see at least some of my points
Indeed, I have let my hopes get pretty high, and time does seem to go by fast. But THIS waiting . . . Uugh. The year push of X release came shortly after I made my reservation. My perception of my place on the chart is that it represents another push of several months - just my perception - so I'm eager to see it differently. Tesla's record is there to see as you have pointed out here and elsewhere too :smile: I've noticed (not as tho it isn't true!) And I definitely see your points. So here's one to add to yours:
They know this is do or die. Model S is such a total home-run, the X can be nothing less or - I hate to consider it.
But still, wouldn't they prepare to tool up and make more than one or two a day for the first 10 weeks?
disclaimer: my posts here are in reference only to the speculative chart on the previous page
They know this is do or die. Model S is such a total home-run, the X can be nothing less or - I hate to consider it.
But still, wouldn't they prepare to tool up and make more than one or two a day for the first 10 weeks?
disclaimer: my posts here are in reference only to the speculative chart on the previous page
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dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Trust me, I so want you to be right. With the chart above I'd have a Model X by the end of Summer 2015. I like that much better than my own expectation (which puts my delivery about 6-8 months later)...
Gary and Rachel
Member
I have been waiting 4 years now. I will have to imbrace the wait. I am hoping that with my one to two year wait will bring many wonderful upgrades. Waiting for a total of 10 years now seems like a blink. I just want to still be breathingvwhen my number comes up. I know ill put 20,000 miles on it during that first year. I think if I got a real date for delivery that it would be harder. We will see.
Time to revisit! Anyone care to provide input on ramp up rate and total 2015?
Not I!... Lets just see if the xmas present that I bought in 2013 in the form of my reservation can be actually wrapped in a box in 2015.
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
At this point, thousands. Probably almost all production in the last six months has been all wheel drive Model S.
I thought that the S and X were going to share production lines?
“This represents the single biggest investment in the plant since we really started operations and enables us for higher volumes,” Sproule said. “It gets us ready to build X and to do it on the same line as the S.”
Model S and Model X will share the same final assembly line that was installed last August. There is a new body line that is being added for Model X that I believe will also be capable of producing Model S, and will be used in addition to the existing Model S body line.
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