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New datapoint posted today:
res#18,521 on Jan 21st
So, for US reservations the current run rate is ~35/day.
Calculation: 156 US reservations since Jan 17th (previous datapoint). So that's 39/day (156/4) or 31/day (156/5)
So, my takeaway is US reservations alone are at run rate of ~ 14k/year using this small span of days in mid-jan (right after a price increase of $2500). This is a very good indicator of demand right after the price increase hangover (IMO).
My guess is that Tesla will have a sales rate over 40K/year by the end of 2013
full disclosure: I'm long TSLA (duh). Go Tesla. Go Elon.
Don't forget cancellations. In light of the delivery pace for very high production #'s, I think Tesla is experiencing a higher delay/cancellation rate than most calculations are accounting for. The delay in 60kWh should already be factored in as high 16,xxx are still getting late March / early April delivery estimates and by then all back ordered 60's should be complete. So everything that is not Red, 40kWh, non-air, international is accounted for with these newer production estimates. Personally I think 40, red, non-air is a low number (10% - 15% production max) so Tesla may be over 20% cancellation / delay rate. If that's the case and we use the same numbers moving forward, the 35/day reservation rate actually equals about 28 / day actual cars sold. They are expanding stores rapidly and opening stores internationally so hopefully that will make up for the difference along with people actually getting to drive / see the Model S.
Personally I think 40, red, non-air is a low number (10% - 15% production max).
I think that's way off. That would imply under 5% of orders red, under 5% 40s, and under 5% non-air.
I expect that orders with any/all of that set of options will represent 30% +/- waiting until post-March. All conjecture tho; perhaps Elon will grace us with a comment on cancellation rates in a few weeks.
Of course you are assuming 400 cars a week production. Your error maybe in that figure. Execs state factory at full production rate but don't say what that is. 400 was the target for end of year it wasn't ever called full production rate beforeYou're assuming there's no overlap between red/40/non-air. I would guess a significant portion of non-air will be 40kWh orders. The air suspension is clearly a benefit to most Buyer's so to give that up for a non-air that no one has driven yet and would significantly delay the order doesn't seem like a common decision among people that chose highly spec'd cars P85/85 and probably low even at 60. A poll here on the site previously had 40kWh at about 10%. That may turn out to be higher in the general population but I don't think by much because at 40kWh it starts to put a limit on the individual's ability to enjoy the car. That along with the 40kWh not being able to utilize the supercharger network, I feel like the 40 is still a very expensive car for most people and the majority won't want to make so many sacrifices when spending that much money so they will either choose a different car (Volt, Prius, most likely Cadillac ELR) or upgrade (obviously there are exceptions and 40 will fit a minority of people VERY well). With overlap between non-air and 40 being so high I think together they won't represent that high a number. Red is the only option that is probably evenly spread in demand among all battery sizes. However Red is historically a VERY low percentage color for a 4 door luxury sedan (less than 10%).
Of course I might be totally wrong on this. Remember that I am suggesting a 20% cancellation / delay rate, a good portion might be in the delay category. There's numerous reasons to delay not the least of which is leasing.
You're assuming there's no overlap between red/40/non-air
Reservation 18845 on Feb 1 was posted on TM forum today.