Model S rampup to 20K units...

[grisnjam]

New article here: Tesla Motors prepares to launch its all-electric Model S sedan - San Jose Mercury News

With new info:

Currently, Tesla is making just one Model S a day as it focuses on quality control and gives meticulous attention to everything from the sound pouring out of the stereo system speakers to the gloss of the paint. Production volume is scheduled to slowly ramp up in coming months, and is expected to hit 80 to 100 cars a day by the end of the year. Tesla plans to make 5,000 cars by the end of 2012 and 20,000 in 2013, a low volume that will allow it to continually improve the manufacturing process.

 

[Grendal]

It all sounds like a smart initial start to production. I even liked Elon's statement that giving the cars to himself and Jurvetson gave them two weeks to drive them around looking for "bugs." One a day thereafter is a small ramp up. Internally there should be a pre-set ramp up process that runs all the way to the end of the year with a cushion for possible problems.

 

[Doug_G]

The way I heard it, they'll start at one a day, ramp up slowly, and then open the fire hose once they're ready.

 

[smorgasbord]

In the prior quarterly conference call (not the annual meeting), Elon said that they'd ramp and then plateau, then ramp and then plateau. I think the idea is to use the plateaus for quality checks and to prepare for the next ramp up.

They haven't talked about it, but I suspect that some portions of the assembly line are already 80/day capable while others are still bottlenecks. For instance, stamping panels for 1 car per day is pretty darn quick and can be ramped up without issue, but other things are probably bottlenecks. And then, there are part and sub-assemblies that come from outside suppliers - is Tesla stockpiling those or are they operating JIT? Heck doing 10 cars per hour (80/day=20K/year) might be tough to achieve for the final step of driving the completed car on the test track and then fixing rattles and such.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

They haven't talked about it, but I suspect that some portions of the assembly line are already 80/day capable while others are still bottlenecks. For instance, stamping panels for 1 car per day is pretty darn quick and can be ramped up without issue, but other things are probably bottlenecks.

Is this proof of that?

Tesla Motors prepares for June 22 launch of Tesla S all-electric sedan

 

[Doug_G]

Is this proof of that?

View attachment 6792

Nah, they could probably stamp 100 of those in an afternoon.

 

[action7981]

Is this proof of that?

View attachment 6792

Not until all of the racks in the background are full :wink: It would make sense that they stamp a bunch of the same panels before switching dies. I counted 14 on the rack and two missing so each rack holds 16. I would think that they are only making / stocking enough to just keep ahead of production.

 

[Todd Burch]

I might be stating the obvious, but for those not familiar with manufacturing:

You don't typically start out stockpiling parts and get too far ahead of production with a new product like this. If you find a problem that requires a change to a part (die/mold), you don't want a bunch of existing parts sitting on racks to go to waste.

So typically they'll start out with a small number of parts waiting...and as confidence in the parts and processes improve, more parts will be produced ahead of the production line.

 

[ElSupreme]

I might be stating the obvious, but for those not familiar with manufacturing:

You don't typically start out stockpiling parts and get too far ahead of production with a new product like this. If you find a problem that requires a change to a part (die/mold), you don't want a bunch of existing parts sitting on racks to go to waste.

So typically they'll start out with a small number of parts waiting...and as confidence in the parts and processes improve, more parts will be produced ahead of the production line.

Also in manufacturing you make small runs (1 car) and try ramp your production to full line speed (design speed).

You look for problems. Then you make a middle sized run(s) (10-20 cars) and run them at full line speed (design speed). Check for problems again.

Then when you work out the line and any manufacturing problems you run the line a whatever speed gives you the number of cars you want. Not necessarily the line's design speed.

 

[Grendal]

Also in manufacturing you make small runs (1 car) and try ramp your production to full line speed (design speed).

You look for problems. Then you make a middle sized run(s) (10-20 cars) and run them at full line speed (design speed). Check for problems again.

Then when you work out the line and any manufacturing problems you run the line a whatever speed gives you the number of cars you want. Not necessarily the line's design speed.

In the initial stages you're going to spend a lot of time in QC confirming the build quality. Later, QC will be less intense.

I wonder if Jurvetson or Elon has found any problems in their two week bug search?

After the first ten get theirs on Friday, I wonder how many will be given out and when to the next customers?

If you're number 11 you'd just miss being in on the hoopla. That would have to stink, don't you think?

 

[daniel]

If you're number 11 you'd just miss being in on the hoopla. That would have to stink, don't you think?

Yes and no. Bugs are significantly more likely in those first cars. Things Musk and Jurvetson didn't spot. But if you're number 11, you've been waiting a LONG time, and the very end of a long wait can be the hardest, emotionally. Maybe you'd happily accept the slight risk of problems just to get your car a few days sooner. And I expect that problems will be few and minor.

As a non-S-buyer, I'm very anxious to read the first actual user reviews, and then the first professional extended test reviews.