I suspect that the rush of "it's real" reservations, together with the planned expansion of retail stores, will fill up the queue for 2013. For 2014, I think we heard that the plan is to produce S and X on the same production line, which would mean that they could reduce production of Model S if the demand drops off. However, sometime in late 2014, it's probable that they'll have to either advertise, discount, or start producing inventory. There's time enough before then to not worry about it now.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
-
On today's TMC Podcast, we ask the question "What is the Tesla Cybercab?". Join us on YouTube live at 1PM and participate in the chat.
Model S rampup to 20K units...
- Thread starter tdelta1000
- Start date
-
- Tags
- Tesla Inc.
I'm not so sure about that. By then there will be quite a few out there and neighbours and co-workers of the people who purchased them will see them in action and continue the demand (always assuming that the Model S is as good as it's supposed to be). That's what happened with the Prius and I see no reason why the Model S will be any different.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Quite possible. By late 2014 Tesla's situation will be quite different anyway; hopefully store expansion will also be boosting sales.
If Tesla hits it's numbers and becomes profitable in the 1st half of 2013, it'll get huge press for that achievement alone. First auto company in an eternity to do so, interviews, press releases, etc. All that visibility will be free advertising.
they don't even compare. you fill up a Prius with gas just like you did with any other car you've driven up until then. what happens inside of it is of little concern to most people. Having to plug in your car to an electrical outlet and be concerned (albeit a small amount) about range is a huge shift in the way we think about cars.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Norbert
TSLA will win
I don't think it is inevitable that by 2014 Tesla will have to advertise, discount or start producing inventory. As you point out, producing both the Model S and X on the same production line should assist in matching overall demand to production, and new stores will help demand. Tesla was profitable as a niche manufacturer when it was only producing and selling the Roadster. It was the outlays for design and production of the Model S that put Tesla in the red. I believe Elon's statement that in 2013 Tesla will become profitable again, but it will still probably remain a niche manufacturer.
It really depends on how much patience Tesla exercises. There is no compelling reason to force the issue of entering the mass market with luxury cars if the demand does not materialize for typical consumers. The first priority is to remain viable while the mass market gets acclimated to the idea of electric vehicles, and as charging infrastructure develops. Staying the course by building to actual demand with minimal conventional advertising, and inventories is the safest approach, and that might even mean reducing planned production levels if demand doesn't initially meet target volumes.
If Tesla over extends itself by resorting to conventional advertising and building inventories they might not have sufficient resources to pursue development of the lower priced Bluestar specifically targeted for the mass market. Discounting should only occur when there is a reason to discount, for example when a more advanced and economical battery is available, or where there is sufficient actual mass market demand as demonstrated by reservations.
Larry
Last edited:
Not sure that's true. Tesla had one profitable month (I think July 2009?) but that's because they stacked a bunch of Roadster deliveries into that one month. My guess is as a company they wouldn't be profitable on just Roadster sales (including all the overhead from the stores) and the drivetrain business. Which is why they've staked so much on the Model S, and from what I've seen I believe it's a good bet, assuming they have a smooth launch and ramp-up.
Norbert
TSLA will win
What Elon said repeatedly is that Roadster and powertrain business by themselves have been profitable in the recent past (that was before they stopped building the Roadster for the US, of course). Whether that includes the stores, I don't know specifically (they've become Model S stores more and more), but as Larry says, it seemed that growth and investment related to Model S are the factors precluding an overall profit.
Boynton Beach Developer MF charging
Hi Larry, Ken Stokes here. My developer client didnt install chargers in every unit but rather pre-wired all 456 units in their luxury apartment complex to accomodate EV chargers. The upgrade involved running 1" smurf pipe from the panel to a 4"x4" quad box to accomodate chargers; installing 40 amp breakers in the main panel; and upgrading the secondary feeder from the transformer to each unit's panel from 100amps to 125 amps. Good stuff. Ken
Hi Larry, Ken Stokes here. My developer client didnt install chargers in every unit but rather pre-wired all 456 units in their luxury apartment complex to accomodate EV chargers. The upgrade involved running 1" smurf pipe from the panel to a 4"x4" quad box to accomodate chargers; installing 40 amp breakers in the main panel; and upgrading the secondary feeder from the transformer to each unit's panel from 100amps to 125 amps. Good stuff. Ken
What's the gas/electricity cost ratio in Europe? Obviously it'll vary, but I'm wondering what it is relative to the US. In my state, it's nearly 20:1 (4.2 cents per kwh at night). In other states though it's closer to 4:1. By 20:1, I mean it'll cost me 1/20th as much to drive an EV mile than an ICE mile.
Actually, I agree with you, it's not inevitable. Do note that Tesla started producing inventory of the Roadster before it ended production, however; three years is a good long time to go before producing inventory, but they did start producing inventory eventually.
One thing about inventory is that keeping a small (SMALL!) inventory will probably boost sales *again*, among "I want it now, not six months from now" people, so I think after they start producing inventory, they'll find they don't need to advertise or discount for *another* couple of years. Meanwhile they'll be focusing on releasing their next car model....
Rifleman
Now owns 2 Model S's!!!
Another reason to produce inventory is that often a car is not a purchase that you can wait 6 months for. I personally buy my cars new, and then drive them until they are worn out and not worth putting more money into for repairs. When one of my cars reaches this point, it is sometimes sudden, and I cannot wait 6 months to get another car. I cant be the only person who does this, and if Tesla wants to sell to this market, they will need to have a way for a customer to walk into a store and drive out in a new car. (granted, I am breaking my normal buying tendencies to get a Model S, but most people who buy like I do probably would not do this)
Similar threads
- Locked
- Marketplace listing
