Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Troy]

@EVNow, you are right. I have now made some small adjustments.

 

[Troy]

2/3 AWD and 1/3 RWD? Is that what you are figuring?

Yes, that's exactly right. This is based on survey data you can find here. That website requires a free account to see the data but here is a screenshot:

 

[Jebers53]

Is this iOS friendly? Can't seem to "double click" on my MacBook Pro

 

[Stolz25]

Is this iOS friendly? Can't seem to "double click" on my MacBook Pro

Doesn't work on my mac either, even using chrome which I would figure would work with google spreadsheets.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Jebers53. Apparently, the date picker in Google Sheets doesn't work on IOS (see discussion here). You could try typing the date. Select the cell and type 1/4/2016 for April 1st.

 

[FlatSix911]

Model 3 SN1 pics soon per Elon on Twitter. Going through final checks now!

Elon: Production unit 1 of Model 3 is now built and going through final checkout. Pics soon.

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk confirms first production unit built

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk confirms first production unit built

View attachment 234774

I need to learn how to insert cool looking tweets!

 

[JoeCoolMan24]

After tweaks, I went from Jan 10th to Jan 4th. Ugh, I might miss the 2018 tax season by 4 days. This is driving me crazy. lol.

 

[sports4eva115]

@Troy , any educated guess as to when we can expect white seats/interior to make it to the configurator? would it be well after AWD ppl?

 

[Zoomit]

After tweaks, I went from Jan 10th to Jan 4th. Ugh, I might miss the 2018 tax season by 4 days. This is driving me crazy. lol.

Wait, you think Troy's model is accurate to within 4 days? It's a great effort, but still only a stack of assumptions.

 

[insaneoctane]

@Troy, any source that you know of to track actual output vs your predictions? Are we all at the mercy of Elon's tweets over the next few months to see if tesla hits the predictions?

 

[smak]

Yes, that's exactly right. This is based on survey data you can find here. That website requires a free account to see the data but here is a screenshot:

This is before or after we knew AWD would be delayed?

 

[Troy]

@Troy , any educated guess as to when we can expect white seats/interior to make it to the configurator? would it be well after AWD ppl?

I think different seat colors will arrive much sooner than AWD. They might offer black leather seats and white synthetic seats just like in the S and X. Maybe the synthetic version is delayed because the supplier couldn't ramp up production quick enough. How much time do they need to fix that? Maybe 2-3 months. I'm calculating that production of non-employee RWD cars will start on 29th Sep 2017. The white seats might be available by that time.

@insaneoctane,
Tesla publishes their quarterly global production numbers on their website a week after the quarter ends. This includes the breakdown by models. For example, two days ago on 7th July, they released this data. It shows 12,000 Model S and just over 10,000 Model X in Q2 2017. The main web page for those files is here. We should expect Q3 2017 numbers including the Model 3, around 7 Oct 2017.

For the record and to make things more interesting, let me add some data here so we can come back and see what happened:

• In Q3 2017, I'm expecting 1666 Model 3's to be produced. Deliveries will be much less, maybe 900-1000.
• I expect the large battery AWD Model 3 to have 297 mi EPA rated range and the large battery RWD 284 mi EPA.
• I expect the small battery AWD range to have 227 mi EPA and small battery RWD 218 mi EPA.
• I expect the smallest Model 3 battery to be 55 kWh.
• I predict that the upgrade to the larger battery will cost $10,000.

@smak, That's an open survey. They still continue collecting data. The percentages keep changing and I keep updating the Estimator. But if most people submitted data a long time ago, that would make the changes look less than they are. I will have a closer look. More people might be switching to RWD.

 

[doctoxics]

I'm calculating that production of non-employee RWD cars will start on 29th Sep 2017.

That would be great, but aren't there ~10,000 Tesla and SpaceX employees in line ahead of the rest of us? Late November might be more realistic.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @doctoxics. AWD is not available in 2017. That eliminates two-thirds of employees. Also, employees outside California are not going to get their cars until production starts for their region.

I'm calculating 18,757 SpaceX and Tesla employees in the USA. I excluded SolarCity. I don't think they will get employee priorities. I assumed 30% will buy a Model 3. That's 5,627 people. 4,395 of those are in California and 33% want RWD which is 1,450 people.

When AWD production starts in early 2018, 4395-1450= 2,945 more employees in California will have priority. For more details, check out the table starting in cell Z39 here.

 

[BillC]

As Tesla owners my wife and I got lucky and were randomly invited to attend the 3/31/16 Reveal. We rushed into the lobby afterwards and placed our reservation at one of the event's reservation stations. Got confirmation next morning. I've always wondered whether this might move those who attended any closer in line.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @BillC. Because you have ownership priority, your reservation time makes little difference. It only affects your place among owners from your region. According to my calculation, if you had waited until you got home to place your reservation, it would have delayed your delivery by 3 days.

 

[FlatSix911]

@Troy, any source that you know of to track actual output vs your predictions?
Are we all at the mercy of Elon's tweets over the next few months to see if tesla hits the predictions?

InsideEV's is another data source for US deliveries ... Model 3 is the last line in the Table Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[insaneoctane]

• In Q3 2017, I'm expecting 1666 Model 3's to be produced. Deliveries will be much less, maybe 900-1000.

@Troy, Just curious, why do you think that there will be such a lag on delivery? They are all local to California, right?

 

[Troy]

@insaneoctane. I'm calculating 124 units/day at the end of September. CA deliveries take a few days after production is complete but of course, it depends on whether September ends with deliveries to employees or owners.

By the way, since you mentioned you wanted to track actual output vs predictions, here are a few other predictions by YouTubers. We can compare those to my predictions too.

• Ben said over 80.000 Model 3's in 2017 (link).
• Trev predicted 100 kWh pack for the largest Model 3 battery (link).
• James said the longest range Model 3 won't have more than 270 miles EPA rated range (link).