Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[sports4eva115]

I think different seat colors will arrive much sooner than AWD. They might offer black leather seats and white synthetic seats just like in the S and X. Maybe the synthetic version is delayed because the supplier couldn't ramp up production quick enough. How much time do they need to fix that? Maybe 2-3 months. I'm calculating that production of non-employee RWD cars will start on 29th Sep 2017. The white seats might be available by that time.

awesome, thanks!

 

[HoffsM3]

Long time lurker but finally posting so first thank you to all of you for these forums and thank you to the spreadsheet inventor. Non-owner who jumped on the reservations on April 4th at 830am PST. I live in San Diego. Your original version had me projected at delivery sometime in the summer of 2018 but per the latest release it looks like December 2017 assuming I am populating things correctly. Being in socal I don't need the D or the P versions so I will take either 55 or 75 rwd and that would be a wonderful Christmas gift.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Long time lurker but finally posting so first thank you to all of you for these forums and thank you to the spreadsheet inventor. Non-owner who jumped on the reservations on April 4th at 830am PST. I live in San Diego. Your original version had me projected at delivery sometime in the summer of 2018 but per the latest release it looks like December 2017 assuming I am populating things correctly. Being in socal I don't need the D or the P versions so I will take either 55 or 75 rwd and that would be a wonderful Christmas gift.

Getting a RWD model does a lot for moving you up the reservations list, unless a lot of people get impatient and switch to RWD!
Of course, living in California doesn't hurt either, there has to be some benefit for our hideous cost of living.

Welcome to the forum!

 

[HoffsM3]

@shrsspeedblade. Thanks for the input. I am going minimal with options on my first EV with a plan to pass it down in 5-6 years to child to drive. I am probably get by with the 55 although I am starting to research the benefit of the battery upgrade. Here's to a 2017 delivery!

 

[lupend88]

@shrsspeedblade. Thanks for the input. I am going minimal with options on my first EV with a plan to pass it down in 5-6 years to child to drive. I am probably get by with the 55 although I am starting to research the benefit of the battery upgrade. Here's to a 2017 delivery!

Do you mind sharing the benefits you found (that are not clearly obvious like more range) for a larger battery? I am on the fence too and like most of us, I'm sure it will come down to price.

 

[MP3Mike]

Do you mind sharing the benefits you found (that are not clearly obvious like more range) for a larger battery? I am on the fence too and like most of us, I'm sure it will come down to price.

• Faster charging at Superchargers. (The taper happen later.)
• Less degredation concerns. (If you are cutting it close on range with the small battery and it loses 10% are you going to be able to make it?)
• The ability to skip some Superchargers because of the extra range.
• Normally the larger batteries have better performance. (faster 0-60, and possibly 60-80, times.)

 

[TrickyDimitri]

I've wondered about this being in Canada. Does being a line waiter, beat a West coast reservation a month after the reveal? I know no one really has the answer.

That is my big question too, and hopefully we will know more on the 28th. What importance does geography have over time is what I want to know. If somebody in California reserved 4 months after the reveal does that means they will get their configure option before somebody on the East Coast who reserved within the 1st month? All interesting questions that should be answered soon...

 

[lupend88]

• Faster charging at Superchargers. (The taper happen later.)
• Less degredation concerns. (If you are cutting it close on range with the small battery and it loses 10% are you going to be able to make it?)
• The ability to skip some Superchargers because of the extra range.
• Normally the larger batteries have better performance. (faster 0-60, and possibly 60-80, times.)

Thank you! All very compelling. Let's hope I can swing the price for the larger battery. I told myself when I put my deposit down that I would get the base model but we all know how that goes...

 

[PRSIST]

Troy...You may have answered this a dozen times, but why does the estimator use the 55 battery pack instead of a 60? I've read numerous articles where the guesstimate is that the minimum will be a 60. What do you know?

BTW: Booo...just did my estimate again and I got moved back a week. Oh well..if it's even close, I'm a happy camper.

Thanks again for the estimator.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @PRSIST. I'm predicting 55 and 75 kWh packs. I created the Estimator in September 2016 and it has been showing 55/75 kWh since then. Those are my predictions based on my calculation. I was correct about the 75 kWh pack. We shall see about the 55 kWh.

Here are a few different scenarios for the smallest battery and what I think about them:

Scenario 1. 55 kWh battery with 215-220 mi EPA rated range. << 80% likely
Scenario 2. Software limited 55 kWh (actual 60) battery with 215-220 mi EPA rated range and 60 kWh battery with 235-240 mi EPA rated range. << 19% likely
Scenario 3. 60 kWh battery with 235-240 mi EPA rated range (no 55 at all). << 1% likely
Scenario 4. 60 kWh battery with 215-220 mi EPA rated range. << 0% likely. Technically not possible.

Scenario 1: 55 kWh
The base model will be 55 kWh. This would make sense because my calculations show that the Model 3 55 would have 218 mi EPA rated range which is more than the promised 215 mi for $35,000. Tesla can't increase the base price because Elon keeps his promises and he promised 215+ mi for $35K and that's what he will deliver. 60 kWh base model for $35,000 is a terrible idea because of poor profit margins. 60 kWh base model for more than $35,000 is another terrible idea because they have promised $35,000 base price. However, it is possible to have a 60 kWh version which brings us to the next scenario.

Scenario 2: 55 & 60 kWh
The base model will have a 60 kWh pack that's software limited to 55 kWh. In this scenario, the starting price would still be $35,000 but people could software upgrade to 60 kWh for $3,000. After they have fulfilled all reservations, they would discontinue the software limited pack and continue with the 60 and 75 kWh packs. The Model 3 60 should have 236 mi EPA rated range which is almost the same as Bolt's range.

The problem with this scenario is that most people don't want to pay extra to software upgrade the battery. They would rather keep the software limited pack and charge to 100% every day. Therefore, this would be a bad idea in terms of profit margins. However, there is a solution for that. They could start with the 60 kWh and continue with 75 and leave the software limited pack (60 limited to 55) last. People who want a 55 would have to wait at least 6 months longer. Most people would just pay the $3,000 extra instead of waiting. This way they would keep their $35,000 base price promise and at the same time avoid profit margin issues.

I keep coming back to this second scenario because it is the kind of thing Tesla would do. They have done exactly that when they first launched the Model S. They promised $50,000 base price. To keep the promise, they released the Model S 40 at $49.900 but it was actually a software limited 60. Then they quickly discontinued the 40. The same thing could happen now.

I think Tesla's original plan was to start with 55 and 75 kWh versions. They had calculated that the Model 3 55 would have more than 215 miles EPA rated range so that's the number they announced during the reveal event. At the same time, they already had the digital designs for the 60/85 kWh packs ready. After the Bolt was released with 238 mi EPA, it must have been very tempting for Tesla to switch to Scenario 2. Therefore this scenario is also possible and I gave it 19% chance but notice that in this scenario, the 55 kWh is still there even though it is a software limited 60.

These are my estimated EPA rated range numbers:

218 mi (351 km) for the Model 3 55, starting at $35,000
227 mi (366 km) for the Model 3 55D, starting at $39,000
281 mi (453 km) for the Model 3 P75D, starting at $74,000
284 mi (458 km) for the Model 3 75, starting at $45,000
297 mi (477 km) for the Model 3 75D, starting at $49,000

In case there is a 60:
236 mi (379 km) for the Model 3 60, starting at $38,000
245 mi (394 km) for the Model 3 60D, starting at $42,000

 

[EVNow]

They could start with the 60 kWh and continue with 75 and leave the software limited pack (60 limited to 55) last. People who want a 55 would have to wait at least 6 months longer.

Headlines say Tesla has raised the price of the base model (since only 60 kWh would be available in the beginning).

5 kWh should cost < $750 for Tesla. They can make this software limited and ask people to upgrade for $1k to 60kWh. Most people would take that up.

 

[Model 3]

They have done exactly that when they first launched the Model S. They promised $50,000 base price. To keep the promise, they released the Model S 40 at $49.900 but it was actually a software limited 60. Then they quickly discontinued the 40. The same thing could happen now.

Just to clear this up - They was intending to produce the 40 battery pack, but when they saw that it had few takers, and Elon was not satisfied with the performance of the 40kWh pack, they discontinued this version, and to satisfy those who had ordered it they delivered the 40 with a sw-limited 60kWh battery pack. This is at least what Tesla say.

As for the 55 vs 60 kWh pack on Model 3: I did also expect a 55kWh pack based on what Tesla had said that TM3 will get a smaller battery then 60kWh. Later rumours has said that they will indeed deliver a 60kWh pack. This may well be to meet the same range as Bolt/Ampera-e. One other question is if we are talking about the full capacity of the battery, or just the usable capacity. A 60kWh pack may well be delivered with 4kWh brick protection and 56kWh usable, and be labeled 55. And the 75kWh pack may then well be delivered labeled 70 (and then the rumours that Telsa was testing some 70 version Model 3 this winter).

So this is my current prediction: The will deliver the Model 3 with a 75kWh and a 60kWh battery packs, but they may very well be labeled "70" and "55". But I do not expect to see the labels "75" and "55".

... and if you watch the unveiling event where Elon said it would be "at least 215 miles", you can see a smile on Elons face telling me that i *knows* it will be well above that.

 

[djplong]

For me, geography comes into play. I live in New Hampshire. When driving south, I need to get past New York City without requiring supercharging. If I can make it to somewhere on the NJ turnpike before needing it, then we have a winner. 215 miles of range won't cut it as Times Square is about 230 miles from my house.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

For me, geography comes into play. I live in New Hampshire. When driving south, I need to get past New York City without requiring supercharging. If I can make it to somewhere on the NJ turnpike before needing it, then we have a winner. 215 miles of range won't cut it as Times Square is about 230 miles from my house.

Hate to be the bearer of bad news..... I'm about 15 miles south of Nashua, and when you account for cold weather and hills, you're going to be really pushing it if you're trying to get all the way to the Molly Pitcher rest area Supercharger.

I've already resigned myself to the fact that in the winter, I'm probably going to need a few quick electrons in Greenwich, Darien, or Tarrytown depending on which way we come down through the city.


Summertime....should be good to go.

 

[lupend88]

This may have been discussed before, but it looks like a good chunk of people believe that the 55kWh will deliver after the 70kWh, but according to the estimator they deliver at the same time. Does anyone know why?

 

[N5329K]

This may have been discussed before, but it looks like a good chunk of people believe that the 55kWh will deliver after the 70kWh, but according to the estimator they deliver at the same time. Does anyone know why?

I noticed that, too.
Robin

 

[dsvick]

This may have been discussed before, but it looks like a good chunk of people believe that the 55kWh will deliver after the 70kWh, but according to the estimator they deliver at the same time. Does anyone know why?

Since it's all speculation at this point anyway .. no, no one knows why.

 

[Troy]

A 60kWh pack may well be delivered with 4kWh brick protection and 56kWh usable, and be labeled 55.

Tesla has released 6 Model S/X packs so far and none of them have more usable capacity than the advertised capacity. Here are the numbers:

Advertised, Actual, Usable kWh (Source 1, Source 2)

• 60, 61.0, 58.5
• 85, 81.5, 77.5
• 90, 85.8, 81.8
• 70, 71.2, 68.8
• 75, 75.0, 72.6
• 100, 102.4, 98.4

Of course, software limited packs are a different story. Those cars have to compensate for the dead weight they have to carry around. We are talking about battery packs that are not software limited. Were you unaware of these numbers? Is there any reason why you suggested the 7th battery pack would have more usable capacity than advertised capacity even though the 6 battery packs so far did not?

Advertised capacity (aka rated capacity) = The number in the design studio, on the battery sticker (example) and on the badge

One other question is if we are talking about the full capacity of the battery or just the usable capacity.

Neither. I'm always talking about the advertised capacity. I think most people mean the same thing. In Tesla's recent packs (75 and 100), there is some consistency. Advertised capacity is close to actual capacity and usable capacity is a little less than advertised. Therefore I don't see any reason to refer to anything else but the advertised capacity.

and then the rumours that Telsa was testing some 70 version Model 3 this winter

It still amazes me that people want to talk about a 70 kWh because of this speculative article on Electrek even after Elon tweeted about the 75 kWh (link). Recently Ben made a video where he incorrectly claimed that the consensus was 70 kWh. This happened recently, months after Elon's 75 kWh tweet.

The Electrek article is inconsistent. On one hand, it talks about the 70 kWh rumor, on the other hand, it talks about the 300 miles rumor. Both can't be correct. A 70 pack can't provide almost 300 miles range. A 75 kWh is needed. This is similar to people claiming 215-220 mi EPA with 60 kWh. It is not technically possible.

So this is my current prediction: They will deliver the Model 3 with a 75kWh and a 60kWh battery packs, but they may very well be labeled "70" and "55". But I do not expect to see the labels "75" and "55".

Of course, I disagree with your predictions. I think the design studio is either going to show 55/75 or 55/60/75. I don't expect to see a 70 and I don't expect to see a 60 without a 55 (software limited 60). Considering that so many people are interested in predictions, I'm considering starting a predictions contest.

 

[internalaudit]

For Canada, at least for me, it seems delivery for any model 3 is in June 2018 based on the configurator. Exciting times especially with the possibility that our provincial EV incentive will be clawed back if the incumbent political party loses the June 2018 election. Hopefully, the winning party dilly dallies (like most political parties) so that my order qualifies for the rebate.

Hopefully, Canada is treated as one whole region without priority given to those out West. Haha.

I put in the reservation, 15 minutes into the unveiling as I fell asleep waiting so that must have been 8:45 pm Pacific.

 

[Troy]

This may have been discussed before, but it looks like a good chunk of people believe that the 55kWh will deliver after the 70kWh, but according to the estimator they deliver at the same time. Does anyone know why?

There are only rumors. There is no information to suggest that the 75 kWh will be available before the 55 kWh. Some people say, releasing the smaller battery first would make more sense. For example, the Model 3 55 starts at $35,000 but the Model 3 75 is expected to start at $45,000. If they start with the 75, mainstream media would incorrectly report that Tesla's new car costs $45,000. This actually happened when they made the most expensive Model X version available in some countries first before other versions. Elon talked about this problem in a recent conference call. However, I don't know which way it will go. We have to wait a little more to find out.