I have a question for anyone that can help. I have an estimated delivery date of Nov 14 2017 (Ordered afternoon of 3/31 on the West Coast). That is great news but I'm having trouble with the numbers. According to the estimator I am about number 36,000 in line. How will I get my car in November if there won't even be 36,000 Model 3s made by then?
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Deliveries start on the west coast, so you would jump ahead of others that reserved before you but don't live on the west coast.
Also, some reservation holders are going to have to wait longer for AWD, so if you don't want that, you would jump ahead of them too
Oh wow that was an obvious overlook my bad! The estimator says there are about 6,500 RWD reservations in my region, and since my region is getting deliveries first, is it safe to assume I will receive approximately the 6,500th Model 3?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
39k is too high - probably more optimistic than Musk. The total '17 production is likely closer to 30k than 40k.
BTW, here in Seattle as a non-owner I get Oct delivery. Highly unlikely - like someone else pointed out, employee deliveries not taken into account for non-CA.
boiler81
Member
How many non-CA Tesla/SpaceX employees do we think ordered M3's? I wouldn't think it could be more than a few hundred, and if so shouldn't have more than a few days impact on non-CA delivery schedules. Both Troy's and Ben's estimators come up with the same estimated delivery date for my 3 75D.
Hi, everybody. I have updated the calculations again. This time the changes are more significant.
The main reason for this update is the slow ramp up at the beginning. It means it will take longer than previously expected to deliver employee cars in California. Therefore they can't expand to other regions before mid-October. This changes the production start dates for all regions.
I have done a detailed calculation for employee reservations. You can see these in cells Z39:AF44 here. I have decided to exclude SolarCity employees. I don't think they will get priority because the idea was that Tesla would fix hardware problems quickly if there are any problems. I don't think SolarCity is integrated enough to the Tesla culture at this stage. They would probably have a worse experience than other Tesla employees if it turns out their cars have hardware issues. However, including SolarCity would make a noticeable difference because apparently, they have 12,243 employees according to Wikipedia. It would be good to find out if they are getting priority.
I have also updated the percentage of RWD buyers. The latest survey data on model3tracker.info shows that in the last 3 weeks it has increased from 32.60% to 33.00%.
@insaneoctane, August is now 100 units.
@Foxhound199, employee priorities are now part of the calculation in all USA regions.
The main reason for this update is the slow ramp up at the beginning. It means it will take longer than previously expected to deliver employee cars in California. Therefore they can't expand to other regions before mid-October. This changes the production start dates for all regions.
I have done a detailed calculation for employee reservations. You can see these in cells Z39:AF44 here. I have decided to exclude SolarCity employees. I don't think they will get priority because the idea was that Tesla would fix hardware problems quickly if there are any problems. I don't think SolarCity is integrated enough to the Tesla culture at this stage. They would probably have a worse experience than other Tesla employees if it turns out their cars have hardware issues. However, including SolarCity would make a noticeable difference because apparently, they have 12,243 employees according to Wikipedia. It would be good to find out if they are getting priority.
I have also updated the percentage of RWD buyers. The latest survey data on model3tracker.info shows that in the last 3 weeks it has increased from 32.60% to 33.00%.
@insaneoctane, August is now 100 units.
@Foxhound199, employee priorities are now part of the calculation in all USA regions.
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JoeCoolMan24
Member
The new updated pushed me from November 17th, 2017 to January 10th, 2018. 
This would be crushing for me. Not because of 7 week wait, but because I could really use that tax credit in the 2018 tax season, vs the 2019 tax season.
At that point, I would rather change my order to AWD, and wait until Feb 20th.
This would be crushing for me. Not because of 7 week wait, but because I could really use that tax credit in the 2018 tax season, vs the 2019 tax season.
At that point, I would rather change my order to AWD, and wait until Feb 20th.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I appreciate what Troy and others are doing - but I think assuming a high degree of certainty in the estimates is not called for. If you start assigning probabilities for every assumption made, you will see my point. It is just something fun to speculate on.The new updated pushed me from November 17th, 2017 to January 10th, 2018.
This would be crushing for me. Not because of 7 week wait, but because I could really use that tax credit in the 2018 tax season, vs the 2019 tax season.
At that point, I would rather change my order to AWD, and wait until Feb 20th.
In my case I was one of the last in the queue. So even though I stood in the Q for 5+ hours, I reserved only around 3 pm. According to the calculation my regional seq number is 922. BUT, just the Q in front of me in that place alone (admittedly one of the longest) was 900+ (someone counted) ! So, I'll take the Nov 21 delivery estimate with a generous pinch of salt.
Hi, @EVNow. Row 18 says 922 for RWD production sequence number in that region. It is only for RWD. The label in row 18 changes based on your selection to one of the following:
Your D prod seq no in this region
Your RWD prod seq no in California
Your P prod seq no in California
Latest survey data shows 33% want RWD. Therefore there would be only 0.33*900=297 RWD buyers in front of you in the queue you waited in. Do you think it would make more sense to display the overall regional production sequence number instead of limiting it to RWD, D or P? I could do it that way but then an AWD buyer who is #1 in his region would see all the RWD buyers before him.
For example, a Tesla owner who reserved first in your region (Pacific excluding CA) currently has the AWD regional production sequence number 85. There are 84 employees before him. I thought this person would not be interested to know the sequence number including all the RWD buyers before him. Of course, I could add another row and display both the overall regional production sequence number and the one limited to the selected trim level only.
Your D prod seq no in this region
Your RWD prod seq no in California
Your P prod seq no in California
Latest survey data shows 33% want RWD. Therefore there would be only 0.33*900=297 RWD buyers in front of you in the queue you waited in. Do you think it would make more sense to display the overall regional production sequence number instead of limiting it to RWD, D or P? I could do it that way but then an AWD buyer who is #1 in his region would see all the RWD buyers before him.
For example, a Tesla owner who reserved first in your region (Pacific excluding CA) currently has the AWD regional production sequence number 85. There are 84 employees before him. I thought this person would not be interested to know the sequence number including all the RWD buyers before him. Of course, I could add another row and display both the overall regional production sequence number and the one limited to the selected trim level only.
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Hi, everybody. It turns out there is an error. I will update the calculations again soon.
Hi, @zenmaster. Good question. While answering your question I realized that I made a mistake and need to change the regional production start dates again. Let me explain how I did today's update, the error I made and what I should have done.
For today's update, when deciding on production start dates for USA regions, I looked at the employee numbers in California. According to my research, Tesla has 12,757 employees in the USA excluding SolarCity and SpaceX has 6,000. That's 18,757 in total. 14,650 of those are in California.
Now I needed to decide what percentage of employees might buy a Model 3. I have no data about this except I know the percentage of existing owners who reserved a Model 3. It's 18.77%. See details here. I'm estimating that the percentage will be higher in the employee group than existing owners. Therefore I decided to go with 30% for employees which is 0.3*14650= 4,395 employees in Calfornia.
Based on latest production numbers Elon mentioned, I calculated that it would take until 16 Oct 2017 to deliver 4,395 employee cars in Calfornia. After that, they can start customer deliveries in California and expand to different regions.
Here is the mistake I made: Tesla can't deliver all 4,395 employee cars in Calfornia by mid-October because some of those employees are going to want AWD and P versions but there are no AWD or P cars until much later. Therefore I should have calculated the RWD portion among California employee reservations and used that. Therefore I will update the calculations again. However, let me complete the rest of the story.
In a tweet here Elon said right-hand-drive production will begin in summer 2018. Before RHD, they need China, Europe, and Canada because those are left-hand drive like the USA. Therefore somewhere between 16 Oct 2017 and summer 2018, they need to start production for all USA regions, Canada, Europe and China.
Normally, Europe would be closer to the beginning of 2018 but they will start AWD production in early 2018. Therefore I pushed Europe to a little later to allow for AWD production in the USA. I looked at Model X data as well when deciding on the gaps between each region. Currently, the dates look like this but this will change shortly:
7 Jul 2017 USA, California
22 Oct 2017 USA, Pacific excluding CA
6 Nov 2017 USA, Mountain Time
21 Nov 2017 USA, Central Time
7 Dec 2017 USA, Eastern Time
22 Dec 2017 Canada
16 Feb 2018 Europe excluding the UK
14 Mar 2018 China or Hong Kong
25 Jul 2018 Australia or New Zealand << Elon said summer 2018
14 Aug 2018 UK
3 Sep 2018 Japan
Hi, @zenmaster. Good question. While answering your question I realized that I made a mistake and need to change the regional production start dates again. Let me explain how I did today's update, the error I made and what I should have done.
For today's update, when deciding on production start dates for USA regions, I looked at the employee numbers in California. According to my research, Tesla has 12,757 employees in the USA excluding SolarCity and SpaceX has 6,000. That's 18,757 in total. 14,650 of those are in California.
Now I needed to decide what percentage of employees might buy a Model 3. I have no data about this except I know the percentage of existing owners who reserved a Model 3. It's 18.77%. See details here. I'm estimating that the percentage will be higher in the employee group than existing owners. Therefore I decided to go with 30% for employees which is 0.3*14650= 4,395 employees in Calfornia.
Based on latest production numbers Elon mentioned, I calculated that it would take until 16 Oct 2017 to deliver 4,395 employee cars in Calfornia. After that, they can start customer deliveries in California and expand to different regions.
Here is the mistake I made: Tesla can't deliver all 4,395 employee cars in Calfornia by mid-October because some of those employees are going to want AWD and P versions but there are no AWD or P cars until much later. Therefore I should have calculated the RWD portion among California employee reservations and used that. Therefore I will update the calculations again. However, let me complete the rest of the story.
In a tweet here Elon said right-hand-drive production will begin in summer 2018. Before RHD, they need China, Europe, and Canada because those are left-hand drive like the USA. Therefore somewhere between 16 Oct 2017 and summer 2018, they need to start production for all USA regions, Canada, Europe and China.
Normally, Europe would be closer to the beginning of 2018 but they will start AWD production in early 2018. Therefore I pushed Europe to a little later to allow for AWD production in the USA. I looked at Model X data as well when deciding on the gaps between each region. Currently, the dates look like this but this will change shortly:
7 Jul 2017 USA, California
22 Oct 2017 USA, Pacific excluding CA
6 Nov 2017 USA, Mountain Time
21 Nov 2017 USA, Central Time
7 Dec 2017 USA, Eastern Time
22 Dec 2017 Canada
16 Feb 2018 Europe excluding the UK
14 Mar 2018 China or Hong Kong
25 Jul 2018 Australia or New Zealand << Elon said summer 2018
14 Aug 2018 UK
3 Sep 2018 Japan
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Hi, everybody. The new version is up. Here is the recent update history in case you find it confusing:
6 July 2017: Updated production numbers based on Elon's tweets on 2nd July.
7 July 2017:
6 July 2017: Updated production numbers based on Elon's tweets on 2nd July.
7 July 2017:
- Updated production start dates to allow for all California employee cars to be built before they start production for other regions.
- I have done research on Tesla and SpaceX employee numbers in different regions and integrated those to calculations. Employee priorities for all USA regions are now displayed
- RWD percentage has been updated.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Hate to throw a curve ball but what do you think might happen if Tesla is about to deliver the 200,001 car in the US (S3X combined) late November or early in December? It's my guess that they might shift some deliveries for all 3 cars to other countries for the remainder of the year so that they can maximize credits for us customers by delivering the 200,00st car on Jan 1, 2018 with a nice backlog of cars queued up for delivery. Canada makes sense as it is close and wouldn't require a ton of transport time. They could even plan ahead and coordinate with owners who want to pick up at the factory to maximize deliveries for the quarter while maximizing tax credits. Just a thought.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Troy, Thanks for updating the Delivery model.
I want to provide some data for a sanity check on your estimator based on my actual Tesla reservation number.
- Your calculated value for my #1 reservation number is 47,996 ... very close to my actual number 407,918 - 360,000= 47,918
- Your calculated value for my #2 reservation number is 48,064 ... very close to my actual number 407,983 - 360,000= 47,983
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Hi, @Reciprocity. Yes, Tesla could do something like that but I don't think they can postpone the deadline by more than 2 weeks. Canada is a small market. Only 3.3% of Tesla buyers are from Canada. Europe is a good idea but they have to ship the cars disassembled to Tesla's Tilburg Netherlands plant where the parts are put together. This is needed to avoid some import taxes. Check out the photos here. I have done a calculation and I think Tesla could postpone the 200K deadline by two weeks but more than that will be difficult.
Luckily, I don't think this will be needed. My latest calculation shows that Tesla sold 128,212 cars in the USA as of today and they are expected to hit 200K USA sales on 24 Jan 2018. Recently Tesla released their Q2 2017 sales numbers. The expectation was 25K units. Tesla said just over 22K units. They fell short by ~3000 units. This is good news because it means they are less likely to hit 200K in 2017. In addition, on July 2nd Elon tweeted a few Model 3 production numbers they expect to hit in July (30 units), August (100 units), September (1500 units) and December (20,000 units per month).
Based on these numbers, I'm calculating 39,372 Model 3 deliveries in 2017, down from 45K in previous estimates. Again this is good news because it makes 200K in 2017 less likely. Of course, I have added all the latest data to the spreadsheet here which I use for the tax credits calculations. Btw, the estimator shows tax credits info on rows 25 and 26.
Luckily, I don't think this will be needed. My latest calculation shows that Tesla sold 128,212 cars in the USA as of today and they are expected to hit 200K USA sales on 24 Jan 2018. Recently Tesla released their Q2 2017 sales numbers. The expectation was 25K units. Tesla said just over 22K units. They fell short by ~3000 units. This is good news because it means they are less likely to hit 200K in 2017. In addition, on July 2nd Elon tweeted a few Model 3 production numbers they expect to hit in July (30 units), August (100 units), September (1500 units) and December (20,000 units per month).
Based on these numbers, I'm calculating 39,372 Model 3 deliveries in 2017, down from 45K in previous estimates. Again this is good news because it makes 200K in 2017 less likely. Of course, I have added all the latest data to the spreadsheet here which I use for the tax credits calculations. Btw, the estimator shows tax credits info on rows 25 and 26.
After update I moved Jan2 -> Jan4. No big change.
And for the tax credit, the other thread was saying you get still full for the Q when the 200k hits, and the next Q. So if 200k comes in January, you still get credit all the way through June, right? From July it'd be 50%. Or did I misunderstand?
And for the tax credit, the other thread was saying you get still full for the Q when the 200k hits, and the next Q. So if 200k comes in January, you still get credit all the way through June, right? From July it'd be 50%. Or did I misunderstand?
Reciprocity
Active Member
Great explanation. I did not realize until just now the European issue. Is that require for all EU delivers or only certain countries?
What are you estimating for US delivers for S/X for Q3-Q4? Does your 128,212 include Q2? Also, Elon had mentioned that some 3's would be available for test drives and viewing at service centers/stores. I would assume that would lower the delivery numbers to end consumers by a small number. Lets say 200 cars each month in Sept - Dec for showrooms and test drives. Or do you already account for that? At this point we are dealing with such finite details, it will be extremely interesting to see how accurate it is. For me, I have 2 reservations and I am an existing owner, but I only put in one just a few weeks, original one was 3/16 at 8pm pst. I am kind of cheating on the second reservation so it will be interesting to see how its treated.
Thanks for all your efforts on this, its a huge resource for the community and looks like it was a fair amount of work.
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