I took a stab at a curve based on Elon Musk's numbers he tweeted. See link below:
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Again, this was just a guestimate
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Again, this was just a guestimate
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Pretty close prediction ... Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk updates his guidance on production ramp up and deliveries
Depending on when they reach that rate in December and what it looks like in October and November, it seems that Tesla shouldn’t deliver more than 30,000 to 40,000 Model 3 vehicles in 2017. Tesla had already accumulated more reservations with deposits for the vehicle on the day of the unveiling before the vehicle was shown on stage. Within a few weeks, Tesla had reached close to 400,000 reservations, which mean that less than 10 percent of them will get their cars by the end of the year.
Based on Tesla’s previously announced plans to concentrate early production for deliveries to reservation holders closer to its Fremont factory, it’s likely that almost all of the 2017 Model 3 production will go to California. The US east coast and other markets, like Canada, are not likely to get more than a few Model 3 units before the beginning of 2018, but if Tesla is at a rate of 20,000 units per month at that point, it should start going a lot faster. As of now, Tesla is still guiding deliveries for “mid-2018” for new reservations, but it looks like it could be updated to “late 2018” or even 2019 after the latest production guidance.
20,000 Model 3 cars per month in December doesn't mean 20,000 cars in December, it means 5,000 cars a week by the last week of December.
Along with the ramp up by month, there's also by week.
December could easily be 3,000, 3400, 4000, 5000 by week which while a nice number is only 15,400
0smak0-
Along with the ramp up by month, there's also by week.
December could easily be 3,000, 3400, 4000, 5000 by week which while a nice number is only 15,400
0smak0-
Hi, @insaneoctane. You can read the estimated production numbers from column G on the Data tab if you scroll down a litte. Maybe you were calculating the numbers from the search results which is a little tricky to do. Currently, calculations assume 5000 units/week in the last week of Dec 2017 because of Elon's previous statements. Elon's latest statement is 20,000 units/month in Dec 2017 which is almost the same. However, I need to reduce the earlier months.
I've wondered about this being in Canada. Does being a line waiter, beat a West coast reservation a month after the reveal? I know no one really has the answer.
Below is my post yesterday on the investors thread:
"Great that production is underway this week! My read on Elon's tweet numbers is that the monthly numbers are weekly run rates that may only be achieved during the last week of the months noted. Assuming that the monthly run rates are achieved in the last week of each month cited, the total monthly productions would look something like:
July - 30
August - 60
September - 750
October - 4,000
November - 11,000
December - 17,000
total - 32,840
Why is it that the Q3 ramp is so slow?"
"Great that production is underway this week! My read on Elon's tweet numbers is that the monthly numbers are weekly run rates that may only be achieved during the last week of the months noted. Assuming that the monthly run rates are achieved in the last week of each month cited, the total monthly productions would look something like:
July - 30
August - 60
September - 750
October - 4,000
November - 11,000
December - 17,000
total - 32,840
Why is it that the Q3 ramp is so slow?"
Because they are still hand assembling significant parts of the car.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
EVNow
Well-Known Member
There is an important difference in the way Musk has worded July/Aug/Sep numbers compared to December. September he says will be "above 1500". But in December "we can reach 20k per month".
My take is that July/Aug are mostly hand built / very low run rates. Sep is when the real automated ramp up starts - and 1,500 is for the month (not a weekly rate). December 20k is indeed a monthly run rate - so 5k could be for the last week of December - but given the holidays not sure how likely.
Anyway here is my (over) fitted curve and estimate. Gives a total of about $35k.
Even Lambo's and Ferrari's are hand built to precision, correct? 
Ferrari: A rare glimpse behind the closed doors of the legendary Maranello factory | Daily Mail Online
Ferrari: A rare glimpse behind the closed doors of the legendary Maranello factory | Daily Mail Online
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You can always pay less tax in 2018 knowing you will get the tax credit back in 2019.
I doubt anyone other than a California resident (or perhaps west coast Tesla owner) will get a 3 this year.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Updated Forecast from Electrek ... Tesla Model 3: new production plan’s effect on $7,500 federal tax credit
It’s difficult to predict when Tesla will hit 200,000 vehicles, but it looks unlikely that it will be by the end of the year with Elon Musk’s updated guidance for early Model 3 production. Earlier this week, Musk said that they plan to deliver the first 30 units at an event at the end of the month and scale to 100 units in August, 1,500 units in September, and they aim for a production rate of 20,000 units in December, which is the most important thing.
The production rate at the moment they hit 200,000 vehicles determines how many people can still benefit from federal tax credit during the first phase-out period. If Tesla sticks to Musk’s guidance for the Model 3 production ramp up and deliveries stay concentrated in the US, it looks like the phase-out would start during the first quarter 2018.
It’s difficult to predict when Tesla will hit 200,000 vehicles, but it looks unlikely that it will be by the end of the year with Elon Musk’s updated guidance for early Model 3 production. Earlier this week, Musk said that they plan to deliver the first 30 units at an event at the end of the month and scale to 100 units in August, 1,500 units in September, and they aim for a production rate of 20,000 units in December, which is the most important thing.
The production rate at the moment they hit 200,000 vehicles determines how many people can still benefit from federal tax credit during the first phase-out period. If Tesla sticks to Musk’s guidance for the Model 3 production ramp up and deliveries stay concentrated in the US, it looks like the phase-out would start during the first quarter 2018.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
My biggest first-world-problem will occur if and when I determine I can get a Performance Model 3 with the full tax credit in the 2nd quarter of 2018! Decisions, decisions.....
Decisions, decisions.....I like the comparison idea but the numbers you posted for the Estimator are not correct except July and August. I guess you were calculating them from the search results which is a little tricky. The easiest way would be to read them from the Data tab. That's where the sheet reads them each time there is a search. For example, Dec 2017 numbers can be read from Data!G371:G432 here. The Estimator currently uses 20,030 for Dec, not 29,068. Here is the correct comparison:
The Estimator's numbers vs Elon's July 2, 2017 tweets (tweet1, tweet2)
July = 76 (vs Elon 30 )
August = 378 (vs Elon 100 )
September = 2,426 (vs Elon >1500)
October = 8,660
November = 13,898
December = 20,030 (vs Elon 20,000 per month in Dec)
I will update the sheet soon. As usual, I will post a new message here when I do.
355rockit
Member
Even Lambo's and Ferrari's are hand built to precision, correct?
.
I've had the pleasure of getting a tour of Ferrari, Maserati and Pagani factories. There is allot of automation, but some things such as mating body to driveline are helped by workers. Installation of seats and interior components as well as wiring is done by hand. Pagani is a bit different since it is a niche, customized, very low volume car and mostly built by hand. Tesla most likely is automating the body fabrication and workers are needed for assembling bits that cannot be done by machines. Initial production is in most cases automated, but at lower run rates so they can work out any kinks. As the robots are optimized, run rates will increase. Cannot go full bore until everything has been qualified for faster production
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Certainly at the late hour (and on my tablet), I must have grabbed the wrong column of data. Thanks for sorting it out and I look forward to seeing my new estimate!
Hi. The new version is up.
The optimistic federal tax credits scenario (Tesla hitting 200K USA sales in Q1 2018) is now more likely. Therefore I have increased the probability of that from 50% to 55%. You can see the two scenarios in rows 25 and 26 in search results if you are from the USA.
The optimistic federal tax credits scenario (Tesla hitting 200K USA sales in Q1 2018) is now more likely. Therefore I have increased the probability of that from 50% to 55%. You can see the two scenarios in rows 25 and 26 in search results if you are from the USA.
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ummgood
Member
Thanks Troy. I am still November. We shall see if that happens. I figured I would be later now that there are probably more willing to take the RWD since who knows when the tax credit will expire.
I am excited to get it that early but part of me wants to wait so I can finish paying off my wife's van. I have been paying huge payments and hope to pay it off 2 years early for the model 3.
I am excited to get it that early but part of me wants to wait so I can finish paying off my wife's van. I have been paying huge payments and hope to pay it off 2 years early for the model 3.
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