suwaneedad
Member
This is terrific! Now just waiting for any 2018 reservation dates to receive their config invite.
So close to US non-owner configs it's getting crazy now!
(Unless Canada owners are next in the magical black box queue.)
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So close to US non-owner configs it's getting crazy now!
(Unless Canada owners are next in the magical black box queue.)
Lhshockey24
Member
Reserved back in December of 2016. Invite received and order placed. It seems owner reservations are clearing out. I’m surprised it took this long to get my email since others who reserved late in 2017 are getting theirs too.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
ℬête Noire
Active Member
Yup, prior owner. It hadn't been clear if they were still giving them priority bump after the start of this year but it looks like it.
It will be interesting to see if once they empty the "prior owners" queue if they'll continue to intake on it or if they'll stop that. With nominally >100K owners in the US out there, and a relatively small percentage having signed up already, that could potentially get ugly for non-owners' invite schedule.
I really do wonder sometimes why the hell I waited in line for over 5 hours...
I mean, sure I get that current owners get priority.. but like.. you reserved a few days ago and that bumps you past everyone who has been waiting for almost 2 years!?!?!
Sigh...
I mean, sure I get that current owners get priority.. but like.. you reserved a few days ago and that bumps you past everyone who has been waiting for almost 2 years!?!?!
Sigh...
Wolverinegeoff
Member
To be fair, he did provide Tesla $20k+ of profit on his new vehicle in addition to the $1k reservation... There’s a reason owners get the bump!
Lhshockey24
Member
This also makes me think that it’s the last batch of owner invites to go out. Considering the dates range from 12/2016 (me) all the way to 2/2018 (this guy)...
icefree
Member
Reserved Model 3 on 12/2/2017, just received invite today. Based in VA. The estimator has always said late 2018, so it was quite a surprise that the invite came in early. Also says AWD in mid 2018, and SR in late 2018 (instead of early 2019, from last bump). So I agree, I think the last group of owners are getting invites, then I'm guessing it's on to non-owners next.
Here is an update on the tax credits situation:
Pessimistic Scenario (80% likely)
Here are some numbers that explain why Tesla's Canada play is so unusual. Why would they ship AWD cars to non-owners in Canada before US owners if this is not about federal tax credits?
AWD for Canada owners: 100% Mid-2018
AWD for US owners: 37% Mid-2018, 63% Late-2018
AWD for Canada non-owners: 100% Mid-2018
AWD for US non-owners: 100% Late-2018
Pessimistic Scenario (80% likely)
- $7,500 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
- $1,875 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2019
- $7,500 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
- $1,875 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2019
Here are some numbers that explain why Tesla's Canada play is so unusual. Why would they ship AWD cars to non-owners in Canada before US owners if this is not about federal tax credits?
AWD for Canada owners: 100% Mid-2018
AWD for US owners: 37% Mid-2018, 63% Late-2018
AWD for Canada non-owners: 100% Mid-2018
AWD for US non-owners: 100% Late-2018
sreams
Member
I'm just glad my delivery window is entirely before Q3. Hopefully that means that if Tesla is delaying cars to shift the tax credit windows, I (and many others) won't be pushed back as well.
Wow. That would a very bold play. Still, I have my doubts. To make an impact we're talking about at least 10k S/X. That's $1B in revenue and $250M in profits not booked for Q2. Do they even have the cash to support that without breaching convenants? Another thing that makes me skeptical : Europe is showing June as well. Why would you postpone Europe deliveries as well? On the contrary : every car delivered to Europe is a net win, so Tesla'd try to keep fulfilling these orders as soon as possible. And finally, why postpone to June? I mean, either you are at the 200k border and then you postpone to July. Or you aren't and then you just cycle through the existing months (at a quicker rate of course). Maybe the explanation is simply an up tick in Asian deliveries? These tend to go under our radar.
RTPEV
Active Member
Agree that it's not fair that there wasn't a cutoff for owner orders to move up in line. Having said that, the benefit of you waiting in line 5 hours is that you are ahead of the masses that waited 4 or fewer hours (which is probably a bigger number than owners) and we are letting the owners debug the annoying bugs.
RTPEV
Active Member
In running some estimates, they would have to divert about 20% extra vehicles internationally. Doesn't mean they have to STOP US deliveries altogether (just stretch it out). And doesn't mean they have to stop delivering altogether (unless there isn't enough international demand to support the additional 20% deliveries--but just looking at the Ontario situation, I bet that 2Q could be a huge month there).
You're right that Europe showing June as well doesn't play well with the theory until you consider the added transit time. That June Europe date would be equivalent to a May US date, so just the fact that it is the same indicates a prioritization of Europe over US.
Peteybabes
redneck drivin' a tesla...
several deliveries of Tesla's in the Columbus OH area! (i was told by tesla tech's this morning that 6-8 had been delivered here)
Here's some photos from 2 days ago of the 1st customer delivery in all of Ohio:
Here's a couple photo's from an hour ago, i chased down this guy who said he was the second delivery in Columbus (even though he only just took delivery about 15 minutes prior):
Really decent guy, let me get into his wife's car can try out the steering wheel and mess with the settings and stuff. i can see that this car will be easy as pie to get used to and that screen is way less of a distraction than it appears in the photos.
Here's some photos from 2 days ago of the 1st customer delivery in all of Ohio:
Here's a couple photo's from an hour ago, i chased down this guy who said he was the second delivery in Columbus (even though he only just took delivery about 15 minutes prior):
Really decent guy, let me get into his wife's car can try out the steering wheel and mess with the settings and stuff. i can see that this car will be easy as pie to get used to and that screen is way less of a distraction than it appears in the photos.
joebiker25
Member
reserved 1/2/18...invited to order 2/14/18
International order are all delivered toward the later part of the quarter due to transit time. I think they will slow down the 75D S/X delivery and focusing on delivering P100D/100D to improve margin.
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